WALBERG LIES ABOUT SUPPORT FOR PRIVATIZING SOCIAL SECURITY AT ADRIAN DEBATE
Schauer has a clear record of fighting to protect guaranteed Social Security benefitsBATTLE CREEK—During last night’s debate at Siena Heights University in Adrian, Congressman Tim Walberg once again lied about his stance on Social Security, saying, “I have never taken a position to privatize Social Security.” In fact, less than a month ago Walberg told the Jackson Citizen Patriot that he, “supports giving future workers the option of saving part of their payroll taxes in personal accounts.” [Citizen Patriot, 9/9/08]
Such a policy would slash benefits by more than 40 percent for future retirees, replace guaranteed Social Security benefits with risky private accounts, drain trillions of dollars from the Social Security Trust Fund, and increase America’s debt to foreign nations by about $5 trillion over 20 years. [http://www.cbpp.org/12-17-04socsec.pdf; http://www.cbpp.org/5-1-06socsec.htm]
“Tim Walberg can call it whatever he wants, but the bottom line is that private accounts would effectively kill Social Security as we know it,” said Schauer spokesman Zack Pohl. “At a time when the financial meltdown has cost more than $2 trillion in lost retirement funds, working families and seniors can’t afford to put Wall Street CEOs in charge of our Social Security benefits.”
Background:
Walberg also supported private accounts for Social Security during his 2006 campaign: "I support efforts to expand our ownership society by allowing younger workers to voluntarily invest a portion of their payroll taxes and allowing the money to be secured in personal investment accounts. Once the system is fully transitioned into personal investment accounts, the system will involve real savings and real rates of return.” [Detroit News, 7/17/06]
Walberg has received more than $1 million in campaign support from the extreme Club for Growth, a group that also supports personal retirement accounts for Social Security. [Club for Growth Press Release, 8/8/06; www.clubforgrowth.org/about.php]
In March 2005, Vice President Dick Cheney visited Battle Creek to support President Bush's plan to privatize Social Security. That same week, Sen. Schauer hosted a town hall meeting with Congressman Sandy Levin to oppose Bush's privatization efforts. [http://www.woodtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=3122588&nav=0RceXskT]
According to the Social Security Office of Policy Data, there are roughly 126,552 seniors in the 7th district who receive Social Security benefits. [http://www.socialsecurity.gov/policy/docs/factsheets/cong_stats/2007/]
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Friday, November 07, 2008 Schauer Victory Speech and What's Next
The Schauer campaign put Congressman-elect Schauer's victory speech on YouTube. The speech was given sometime shortly after 1:00am, Wednesday, November 5.
The quote at the end of the video is a good one, but I just wanted to highlight one other thing he said: Politics is about competing visions, but governing is about people coming together for a common purpose, and I intend to help govern.This is one of the reasons I like Mark Schauer-- he sees this distinction. It's what allows him to campaign as a proud Democrat, but still work with, say, Republican Joe Schwarz to save the Battle Creek Air National Guard base. It's what let him set aside the politics of the state budget crisis and make some tough decisions and compromise-- angering both conservatives and the all-important MEA-- in order to keep our state running. It's not about ideology, it's about making government work for people and solving problems. That's the hard part. That's what's next for Mark Schauer. Thank you to the kind comments I've received-- including from Walberg supporters. This is by no means the end of Walberg Watch, though its name will probably be changing sometime soon. We've got a state Senate race coming up soon to replace the vacancy Senator Schauer created, and it's one where Democrats need to hold on. We've got the state legislators and the county and city governments of this district, whose decisions impact our lives more directly than anything Mark Schauer or Barack Obama will be doing. And yeah, we've got Congressman-elect Mark Schauer. Just because he's a Democrat doesn't mean he doesn't need to be watched from time to time. I'm not quite sure how this is going to work yet, but I hope you'll keep coming back. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Wednesday, November 05, 2008 Schauer Wins - Final Results Thread
All precincts have now reported. Here are the (unofficial) final results, via MLive:
356 of 356 Precincts Reporting - 100%
That's a margin of 7,423 votes. Via CNN, here are the county totals: Branch (100% reporting) Walberg - 9,865 - 56% Schauer - 6,879 - 39% Calhoun (100% reporting) Walberg - 23,920 - 40% Schauer - 33,649 - 56% Eaton (100% reporting) Walberg - 24,876 - 45% Schauer - 27,648 - 49% Hillsdale (100% reporting) Walberg - 12,015 - 60% Schauer - 6,981 - 35% Jackson (100% reporting) Walberg - 34,231 - 47% Schauer - 34,977 - 48% Lenawee (100% reporting) Walberg - 22,950 - 49% Schauer - 22,018 - 47% Washtenaw (100% reporting) Walberg - 21,909 - 44% Schauer - 25,037 - 51% And now it's all over. Note that Schauer won Calhoun, Eaton, Jackson, and Washtenaw Counties, while Walberg won only Branch, Hillsdale, and Lenawee Counties. It's also worth noting that Lenawee County-- which President-Elect Barack Obama won-- went to Walberg by only 932 votes. That's incredible. Thank you, Congressman Walberg, for your service. Although I've been very critical, I don't doubt that you acted with the country's best interests at heart. We just have a disagreement on what's best for the country. Congratulations, Congressman-elect Schauer. Now comes the hard part. Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Ken Proctor, Lynn Meadows, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Walberg Concedes (Almost), Schauer Declares Victory
UPDATE: For final results, click here.
From the Battle Creek Enquirer: U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, R-Tipton, all but conceded Michigan’s 7th Congressional District race to Democratic challenger Mark Schauer, who declared victory about 2 a.m. today.That's good enough for me. I'm done for the night. The Enquirer has slightly different numbers than I do via the MLive site. Here's where they've got the results as of right now: 324 of 356 Precincts Reporting - 91%
That's a margin of 4,365 votes. It's close, but it should hold. By county: Branch (100% reporting) Walberg - 9,865 - 56% Schauer - 6,879 - 39% Calhoun (100% reporting) Walberg - 23,920 - 40% Schauer - 33,649 - 56% Eaton (70% reporting) Walberg - 21,571 - 45% Schauer - 23,209 - 49% Hillsdale (100% reporting) Walberg - 12,015 - 60% Schauer - 6,981 - 35% Jackson (100% reporting) Walberg - 34,231 - 47% Schauer - 34,977 - 48% Lenawee (83% reporting) Walberg - 19,361 - 52% Schauer - 16,627 - 45% Washtenaw (90% reporting) Walberg - 20,060 - 44% Schauer - 23,066 - 51% The winner or current leader in each county is italicized. We're still waiting on results from three Windsor precincts in Eaton County, the seven precincts covering the entire city of Adrian in Lenawee County (.pdf), and four precincts in Webster Township in Washtenaw County. If they have any meaningful impact, I think it will be Adrian adding to Schauer's margin and making Lenawee County a little bit closer. I don't know enough about the voting patterns of the others to speak intelligently. (Fun fact for the night: Even without Adrian, Senator Barack Obama actually leads in Lenawee County right now, 49.10 percent to 48.81 percent. Wow!) Personally, I'm not comfortable calling this, and I'm nervous that I'll wake up tomorrow morning and be disappointed. Maybe that's why I'm just a blogger and not a professional political operative. I'll have a longer write-up sometime when all the results are in. Until then, congratulations to all of the candidates. It's finally over. Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Ken Proctor, Lynn Meadows, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Tuesday, November 04, 2008 Election Day - Results
UPDATE: For final results, click here.
From MLive, which loads faster than everyone else right now: 1:09am - Schauer's up to a 433-vote lead. This is going to be a precinct-by-precinct thing for a while. (Note: I've moved previous updates below.) 1:18am - Schauer up by about 1,500. But I'm not ready to breathe yet. 1:36am - Finally, another update! Schauer now leads by about 1,700. 1:41am - In that last update, about half of Jackson County came in as one big block. In Jackson County, it went from Walberg 50-45 to Schauer 48-47. Wow. 1:47am - Schauer has a 5,000-vote lead now. But I'm still holding my breath. 1:57am - Schauer's lead dropped a bit, but he's still ahead by about 4,200 votes. 2:05am - It's getting close again... Schauer's lead is under 4,000 votes. Will it last the rest of the night? The good news is, Hillsdale is done. 2:10am - Now about a 3,600-vote lead. Only 33 precincts left. 2:14am - It's down to Eaton, Lenawee, and Washtenaw. Is Walberg strong enough in any of them to push him back over the top? Schauer's back up to a 4,300-vote lead. 2:23am - Just to be clear, the lead is enough to say that probably, probably, this is a Schauer win. But I'm a suspicious person, so while the folks at the Schauer election night party are celebrating, I'm not quite ready to say it's done. That 62-vote lead he had at one point spooked me. 324 of 356 Precincts Reporting - 91%
----- County-By-County Results, via CNN (Note: These will be updated less frequently): Branch (100% reporting) Walberg - 9,865 - 56% Schauer - 6,879 - 39% Calhoun (100% reporting) Walberg - 23,920 - 40% Schauer - 33,649 - 56% Eaton (70% reporting) Walberg - 45% Schauer - 49% Hillsdale (100% reporting) Walberg - 12,015 - 60% Schauer - 6,981 - 35% Jackson (100% reporting) Walberg - 34,231 - 47% Schauer - 34,977 - 48% Lenawee (83% reporting) Walberg - 52% Schauer - 45% Washtenaw (90% reporting) Walberg - 44% Schauer - 51% 11:00pm - CNN: Barack Obama is elected President of the United States 12:15am - For the moment, Schauer seems to have stalled out about 4,000 votes short of Walberg, but there's still a lot left to come. I think, if I'm reading the county clerk websites right, that all of Adrian and all of Delta Township have yet to report. I've got no idea what's happening in Jackson. 12:19am - Chris Gautz at the Citizen Patriot went to bed twenty minutes ago, but I'm still here. I'm taking a short break to stretch my legs, get some caffeine, and grab some non-political stuff to work on while I'm here. I'll be back soon. 12:24am - Walberg widens his lead. Now I'm actually going to go take a break. 12:33am - Schauer cuts the lead to 1,500 votes. 12:36am - What pushed Schauer up just now? Delta Township, in which he won all but three precincts. 12:48am - About 2,000 votes down. 12:51am - Woah! Mark Schauer jumps to a 1,400-vote lead. 12:54am - That was a big chunk of western Washtenaw coming in. Schauer went from a 48-47 lead to a 52-43 lead. Watch for Lenawee County to narrow a bit-- still no Adrian-- but it looks like it'll all come down to Jackson County, which is only 45 percent in. 1:00am - Ah! Schauer leads, but only by 227 votes. That was a chunk of Jackson County. 1:06am - Schauer leads by 62. Ah! Labels: 2008 Election, Ken Proctor, Lynn Meadows, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Update: GO VOTE! Find Your Polling Place
Bumped up. - Fitzy
Not sure where to go? Google has the answer! Follow the link for a special map, where you can type in your address and it will tell you where to go to vote and how to get there. What do you need when vote? Although not required to vote, some form of photo identification is helpful. If you don't have any, you can still vote, but you'll have to sign an affidavit saying that you don't have any. If you've got a driver's license or a state ID card, just bring that. For more information on voting or to see a sample ballot, visit the Michigan Secretary of State's website. You should vote. This is important. UPDATE: Share your voting stories in the comments, if you'd like. UPDATE II: Shorter Susan Demas: Walberg is "bought and paid for" by the Club for Growth, and he meant it when he said it. Schauer will win (maybe), and Schauer should win, but she's still somewhat disappointed. When you're done reading that, GO VOTE! UPDATE III: Live results, courtesy of Google: UPDATE IV: Here's an alternate live results map, thanks to our friends at Daily Kos: Labels: 2008 Election Closing Arguments
Bumped. It's Election Day. - Fitzy
From WILX, via YouTube user SeventhDem: That's the scripted message each candidate wanted to put forward. For a more complete and unfiltered discussion of the issues, you can listen to, watch, or read coverage of three debates from the last month. Many thanks to WKHM 970 AM, which brings us .mp3 audio files of three debates.
In addition, Senator Schauer has been crossing the district for his closing "Everywhere, Everyday, Every Job Counts" tour. If you need a last opportunity to meet Mark Schauer, here's your chance for tomorrow: I've met both men, heard them both speak on the issues, and watched or listened to all three debates. My vote goes to Mark Schauer. Labels: 2008 Election, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Election Day - What To Watch For
From 7:00pm to 9:00pm, I'm going to be away from a computer-- and, in fact, away from any televisions, radios, or other devices which report election results. During arguably the most exciting portion of the night, when Virginia may be called for Obama, or when the returns start coming in for the Georgia Senate race, or when our own district begins reporting, I won't be able to be a part of it.
For a political junkie like me, that's like missing the World Series, the Rose Bowl (Go 'Cats! I believe in you!), and the World Cup all at once, which, by the way, are also on Christmas. Tomorrow could be a really amazing day, and I’m disappointed that I’ll be missing a big part of it. But when I do get to a computer, I’ll be looking for a few things. I don't claim to have a secret formula or know which tiny town will be the bellwether, and I'm definitely not a Grebner-like expert. But I can tell you what I think a Schauer victory might look like, and where I’ll be looking for it. Turnout in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties With 98 percent of Michigan's voting population registered, there are a lot of people who could show up to vote. That’s got to worry Tim Walberg, whose victory in the 2006 GOP primary was thanks to what former Congressman Joe Schwarz called a "motivated minority" of 7.8 percent in a low-turnout primary. (Schwarz also called them "quasi-theocrats... infiltrating the party power structure"). Granted, a general election is very different from a primary, but a Walberg victory will depend on certain people not showing up, namely in Calhoun County, where Mark Schauer could run up the margin. But Walberg has someone working against him: Barack Obama. The Obama campaign has done a phenomenal job of registering new voters who are trending Democratic. But they didn't ask prospective voters for a partisan affiliation before they registered them, nor should they have. In a Republican-leaning district, is it possible that the Obama campaign might have just registered a bunch of new Republicans? Maybe, but judging from where the new voters are coming from, probably not. With help from the Detroit Free Press (who got the data from the Michigan Secretary of State), here's a fun table: County Reg. Voters New Voters % Change (Jan. - Oct.) Branch 31,805 683 +2% Calhoun* 103,707 3,950 +4% Eaton 80,023 2,781 +4% Hillsdale 33,327 724 +2% Jackson 115,357 4,672 +4% Lenawee 71,552 2,170 +3% Washtenaw* 273,955 24,962 +10% Note that both Calhoun and Washtenaw Counties have portions not in the 7th District. This is especially important in Washtenaw County, where Ann Arbor (and the University of Michigan) probably accounts for most of the voters and most of the growth. However, Battle Creek, which is in the district, is the major population center for Calhoun County, and is probably responsible for most of that growth. So for our simplified purposes here, let's ignore Washtenaw County but keep Calhoun County. As you can see, the most new voters were added in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties (both in absolute number of voters and in proportion to their populations). Calhoun County is generally considered safe territory for Mark Schauer, who has represented the voters there in the state House and Senate since 1996 and is generally very popular. Jackson and Eaton Counties, meanwhile, are the major "battlegrounds." Not only are they vote-rich, but they were divided pretty evenly in the 2006 election (Eaton: Renier 50 Walberg 48; Jackson: Walberg 51 Renier 46). Although Schauer currently represents much of Jackson County in the state Senate, I’m expecting it to be a major battleground again. Neglected in the voter registration drives were the Walberg strongholds of Branch and Hillsdale Counties, and to a lesser degree, Lenawee County (more on it in a minute). I don't have solid data behind me, but I'm going to guess that if they turn out to vote, the new voters in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties will break Democratic. If they were registered by the Obama folks, they were probably targeted as students or underrepresented populations, which is probably good news for Mark Schauer. At least, that’s what I'm hoping. In 2006, Calhoun County had 47.5 percent turnout, Eaton County had 59.9 percent turnout, and Jackson County had 51.8 percent turnout (data here and here). If turnout is higher than that in those three counties (and especially Calhoun County), new voters and Schauer loyalists could run up enough of a margin to offset losses in the southern part of the district. If the turnout is really big in Calhoun County, that might be the whole ball game. Is that a possibility? Could central-west Michigan see a massive surge in turnout? I don’t know, but it sounds like Kalamazoo County (one west from Calhoun County) is getting ready for one: KALAMAZOO -- Bracing for a very long and very busy Tuesday, area election officials say they're "as ready as we'll ever be" for the 2008 presidential election. Lenawee County This is where Tim Walberg should win. He represented Lenawee County for 16 years in the state House of Representatives, and the mostly rural county is famous (or infamous) for its conservative politics and sometimes frightening tendencies. (Anyone else remember "Radio Free Lenawee"?) This is where I'm from, and I can say that it is a conservative place. At the same time, though, people don't really like Tim Walberg all that much. Oh, sure, some do. Whenever I was canvassing, I was bound to run into someone who would say, "I plan to vote for Tim, I’ve known him for years" or something like that. But I'd also meet someone who'd say, "Walberg? I can’t believe we keep electing that guy!" The solidly-Republican state House seat Walberg vacated has been in Democratic hands (albeit moderate ones) for ten years. With state Representative Dudley Spade basically guaranteed reelection, it'll stay that way for at least two more years. Meanwhile, the county is changing. Before the economy got really bad, a lot of people were moving out to Clinton or Tecumseh from Ann Arbor or metro Detroit for the cheaper properties, willing to put up with the couple-hour commute. They don’t have a relationship with Tim Walberg, and some of them are even (gasp) Democrats. And the Schauer campaign has taken the county seriously, opening an office in downtown Adrian and hiring a full-time field organizer to staff it and coordinate with the Obama and Spade campaigns. Whenever he's in the county, Mark Schauer is certain to mention his great relationship with Doug and Dudley Spade, both of whom carry a lot of weight. (Side note: Their secret to success? They're actually really good representatives. If you go to Dudley Spade with a problem, he'll do everything he can to solve it.) Throw in the Obama organizers, and you've got a real chance for 2008 to be a year of Democratic revival in Lenawee County. Will Mark Schauer win it? ... No. It just won't happen. But he can keep it close. Governor Jennifer Granholm managed to take 47 percent of the vote in 2006, and if Schauer can get a similar share of the vote and hold Walberg to 51 or 52 percent, it could mean a lot. If Schauer opens up a big lead in Calhoun County and Washtenaw County, then there just aren’t enough voters in Branch and Hillsdale Counties to make up for it. Walberg needs to win Lenawee County convincingly. If Lenawee County is as tight as the other "battlegrounds," it's going to be a rough night for Tim Walberg. And what if Mark Schauer wins Lenawee County? Then short of something really unexpected happening, Schauer will win the district. But like I said, Schauer won't win Lenawee County. I'm not going to let my hopes get that high. Obama Barack Obama is going to win the state of Michigan. The only question left is "How big?" Since John McCain pulled out of Michigan, it's started to look pretty big. Here's the Pollster.com chart for Michigan: That's quite a sight, isn't it? The final Pollster average puts it at Obama +16, which would be a bigger margin than Bill Clinton’s +13 win in 1996. That year, with the help of Ross Perot, Bill Clinton carried four of the counties that currently make up the 7th District: Calhoun, Washtenaw, Lenawee, and Branch. Calhoun and Washtenaw are to be expected, but Lenawee and Branch surprised me when I looked back at them. After all, these are supposed to be the conservative parts of the district. Supposing Obama has similar success, picking up Calhoun, western Washtenaw, and at least one other county, is there any way Mark Schauer can lose? I'm not sure what the Obama-Walberg voter looks like, and I'd be shocked to see Obama carrying Jackson County by a wide margin but Schauer losing it. Maybe it's possible, but Mark Schauer has done a good job presenting himself as a moderate and a hard-working, dependable public servant. If Obama wins big, I can't imagine any reason for the Obama voter to choose "more of the same" and Tim Walberg. ***** Upon re-reading all of that, I'm worried that I'm being too optimistic and tempting fate for another disappointing election night. It's possible. Even so, and despite not having any idea of what I'm doing, I think that most of my reasoning has some foundation to it. I think one of the three factors above (if not all of them) could contribute to a Schauer victory. That's what I'll be looking for, sometime around 9:15pm Eastern Time. It's possible that there will be a clear leader by the time I arrive on the scene. We'll see soon enough if any of this is right. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Barack Obama, Dudley Spade, John McCain, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg 7th District Most Targeted For Independent Expenditures
Swing State Project has been doing a phenomenal job of tracking spending across the country by independent groups, in addition to candidate spending. They created a chart showing the total spending and partisan leanings for every contested House race in the country. Here's the explanation:
Note that this does not include direct expenditures by party committees (like we saw the other day from the DCCC in NJ-05 & FL-18) or electioneering communications by 527's like Freedom's Crotch (the FEC's database is all but unnavigable).And here's what they found:
That's right. We were the most-targeted district in the country for independent expenditures. Remember that this doesn't include the candidates' own spending, the DCCC or NRCC, or even many 572 groups. Wow. And, as evidence of the excitement on the part of Democrats this year, a clear majority of that spending came in support of Mark Schauer or in opposition to Tim Walberg. After the election, I'd like to take some time to seriously look at where the money came from on both sides. Right now, I'm just shocked by the enormity of it all. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Walberg Making Fake Robo-Calls?
Via Blogging for Michigan:
Delta Twp.-Delta Township Democrats called on Congressman Tim Walberg and his supporters to immediately stop robo-calls that have gone out to voters that imply local Democratic Eaton County officials support Walberg. Several voters complained about receiving the calls on their home answering machines today.If anyone has more information, I'd love to hear more. If true, this strikes me as a desperate move. Walberg should be ashamed of himself. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg In Case You Forgot...
Still trying to make up your mind? Are you a moderate Republican, uncomfortable with Tim Walberg but not quite ready to vote for Mark Schauer? Do you wish Joe Schwarz would come back?
I can't help you with that. But I can give you this, via YouTube user SeventhDem: And, in case you don't remember what Joe Schwarz went through (thanks to Tim Walberg), here's the piece he wrote for the Washington Post two years ago: I am the political equivalent of a woolly mammoth, a rarity heading for extinction. Yes, I'm a moderate.You should really read the whole thing. It's a little dated, but worth it. And, of course, here's what happened this time around: Former Republican Rep. Joe Schwarz, who railed against an anti-tax group's role in his unsuccessful 2006 primary, endorsed Democrat Mark Schauer on Tuesday because the organization targeted the congressional challenger.and Schwarz, a supporter of John McCain's presidential campaign, said he had hoped to stay neutral in the race but "once they made the decision, the die was cast."Joe Schwarz is a good man, and what Tim Walberg did to him was reprehensible. There are lots of reasons to vote for Mark Schauer, and there are lots of reasons to vote against Tim Walberg. But if you're still looking, I'd encourage you to listen to what former Congressman Joe Schwarz has to say. Labels: Endorsements, Joe Schwarz, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Monday, November 03, 2008 Jackson Cit-Pat Endorses Schauer
Here's my Election Eve prediction: Jackson County is going to decide the outcome of the 7th Congressional District race. As predictions go, that's not too controversial. It's the county with the most people and it's the county that's basically evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. When the county's main daily endorses, it has the potential to be a big deal.
This weekend, the Jackson Citizen Patriot made its decision. You can tell they were a little torn over the decision, in the birthplace of the Republican Party. Nevertheless, I agree with the conclusion they reached. In their Sunday, November 2, 2008 issue, the Citizen Patriot endorsed Mark Schauer: Voters in the 7th Congressional District might express relief more than anything else at the end of the $6 million-plus campaign between Mark Schauer and Rep. Tim Walberg. Their scorched-earth battle of misinformation and even outright lies has not been worthy of two honorable men or the district they want to represent.The Citizen Patriot has always struck me as a moderate-to-conservative paper, though they've had some very good reporting this election cycle and last time. As Eric B. at Michigan Liberal notes, so close to Election Day, most people have probably made a decision. Even so, it doesn't hurt to add one more newspaper that says Mark Schauer is the right man for the job. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Pre-Election Round-Up
I think that this is interesting. Compared to this time last year-- when there was no election-- and this time in 2006, traffic to Walberg Watch is down, but not by all that much. Why is this interesting? Well, frankly, because I've fallen down on the job and fallen behind. Life got in the way. And even so, people keep visiting Walberg Watch. Thank you, everyone, and especially to everyone that has e-mailed me over the last few weeks.
Even though I've been a little quieter, I still absolutely believe that Mark Schauer is the right man for the job, and Tim Walberg absolutely has to go. I've simply run out of time to give everything the time it deserves, but here are some interesting last-minute items: ----- The Michigan Republican Party put out this advertisement: What's the problem? The photo of Mark Schauer slowly floating down the screen was stolen from a progressive blogger. According to Chris Gautz at the Citizen Patriot, two more photos were also stolen from the same blogger for use in direct mail pieces. That's just a low move. ----- Speaking of Chris Gautz, he'll be holding a liveblog tomorrow night following the results. I don't always agree with the conclusions he reaches, but it's worth checking out. Chris has a fun writing style and tells it as he sees it. And besides, I'll be away from a computer until about 9:30pm, so there's a chance Walberg Watch won't have anything exciting for a while. You've got to have somewhere to go. ----- There have been a lot of pre-Election Day "Walberg, Schauer in tight race" stories or "Candidates make final push" stories. If you're at Walberg Watch looking for more information, chances are you've already read one of them or you could write one yourself. Still, here's a small sample: Schauer talks jobs at local visit - Daily Telegram Candidates make final push as election nears - Jackson Citizen Patriot Campaign for Congress down to final moments - Battle Creek Enquirer ----- Former Congressman Nick Smith-- who served the district from 1993 to 2005-- endorsed Congressman Tim Walberg for reelection. It's not a huge surprise. His son, Brad Smith, had actually gotten the Club for Growth endorsement over Tim Walberg in 2004, and no one has ever said either Smith was anything other than conservative. I think I might also remember having seen Smith contribute to Walberg sometime in the last two years, though I'm not totally sure. Still, it's a significant endorsement, and worth reporting. ----- In mid-October, President George W. Bush was in Grand Rapids for a fundraising trip, and Congressman Tim Walberg was a major beneficiary. George W. Bush was here, helping Tim Walberg. I've got no further comment. ----- In case you're one of the many people every day that comes to Walberg Watch following a Google search for polling on the race, Pollster.com has a handy graph that shows the polling trend of the race. Sadly, there's been very little independent, public polling. ----- Remember to vote. Sure, you have to pay taxes and obey the laws in this country. But your right to vote makes up for all of those mild inconveniences. Bob Schieffer of CBS News said this at the conclusion of the third presidential debate: I'll leave you tonight with what my mother always said: Go vote now. It'll make you feel big and strong.That's right. If I've missed anything you think is important, leave it in the comments. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Endorsements, Fundraising, Mark Schauer, Republican Party, Tim Walberg Friday, October 31, 2008 Late-Night Blogging In Review
Whew!
So, all has not been well in Fitzy-land. I've been busy, I've been caught up in presidential campaign excitement, and, of course, somehow I managed to catch both a cold (a couple of weeks ago) and a "flu-like virus" (this week). Really, there have been some pretty miserable moments. But you don't care about that, you care about beating Tim Walberg! So I spent the last few days trying to catch up with the campaign-- that can be seen in the dozens of posts below, which I've just uploaded. Most of them are going to sink off of the page pretty quickly (or already have), so I want to give you a table of contents of sort. Here's everything I've been up to today. By the way, there's more coming tomorrow. This is just part one. Today's blogging: Predictions
Endorsements
As I said above, there's more coming tomorrow, especially in the "Debates" category. That's tomorrow. Honestly, I'm really tired right now. But I've got one last thing, for all of you progressive Democrats that need some motivating for the last week of the campaign. Watch this: The U.S. Senate Democratic caucus made that video last year in memory of Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MN), who was killed in a plane crash on October 25, 2002, along with his wife, his staff, and the flight crew. Wellstone was someone who you could count on to fight for you, and I think the video captures that. Regardless of whether you agree with his politics, I think most would agree that if we had more leaders who were that passionate about helping people, we'd be better off. (By the way, Senator Schauer-- I know that you're fairly moderate and this is a moderate district, but if you win on November 4th, I'll be measuring you against the Wellstone standard.) Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Paul Wellstone, Tim Walberg Walberg: Iraq Did Have WMD
Um... Congressman Walberg?
Transcript Walberg: Did not Saddam Hussein have the weapons of mass destruction?Hm. So, Saddam Hussein did have weapons of mass destruction, it's just that they're hidden so well that even after five years, we haven't found any. The Iraqi government was able to hide them quickly, in the midst of preparations for an invasion, without leaving any traces or having any witnesses that were able to give credible accounts to the Americans searching for the weapons. Right. I'm not an expert on this, but thankfully, there are some people that have spent a lot of time on this. For instance, the Iraq Survey Group, which was convened by coalition governments specifically to search for stockpiles or evidence of stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction, had this to say: The former Regime had no formal written strategy or plan for the revival of WMD after sanctions. Neither was there an identifiable group of WMD policy makers or planners separate from Saddam. Instead, his lieutenants understood WMD revival was his goal from their long association with Saddam and his infrequent, but firm, verbal comments and directions to them. and this: ISG has not found evidence that Saddam Husayn possessed WMD stocks in 2003, but the available evidence from its investigation—including detainee interviews and document exploitation—leaves open the possibility that some weapons existed in Iraq although not of a militarily significant capability. Several senior officers asserted that if Saddam had WMD available when the 2003 war began, he would have used them to avoid being overrun by Coalition forces.In other words, Saddam Hussein really, really wanted weapons of mass destruction, liked to brag about them, but didn't actually have any. He was a deluded, aging dictator, not a serious threat. And what about Tim Walberg's idea that the weapons might have been moved or buried? In an addendum to the final report, it was concluded that it was possible, but very unlikely. Again, I have to ask, if there were these massive stockpiles, how is it that no one witnessed their movements across the border? I don't know, Congressman Walberg, this is straying into conspiracy-theory land. Next you're going to tell me that black helicopters from the UN are out to get you. But wait, Congressman Walberg said that the "Hamilton Commission" found out that the weapons were buried in the desert. So he's right... right? No. He's referring to the Iraq Study Group (not to be confused with the Iraq Survey Group above), which was a bipartisan panel, chaired by Lee Hamilton (a Democrat) and James Baker (a Republican), and which released its final report in December of 2006. Except, they weren't tasked with investigating weapons of mass destruction. They were instead asked to find a path out of the mess we had created in Iraq. In fact, in their final report, the phrase "weapons of mass destruction" only appears once, in the biography of one of the commission members. As far as I can tell, the report never discusses the truth behind claims about weapons stockpiles, nor does it address what might have happened to those stockpiles, if they had existed. Frankly, I haven't got any idea what Walberg is referring to. If anyone can enlighten me, I'll gladly post an update. It's possible-- possible-- that Tim Walberg could be right, and a couple of dozen of Iraqi nuclear bombs are hidden in the desert, or in Syria, or something like that. Maybe, in some crazy, unbelievable way, that all managed to happen without us ever finding any evidence. Hey, anything can happen. But that's not what Tim Walberg said. He didn't say, "Well, who knows, maybe it's possible that they were there!" No. He was sure that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. He mocked Mark Schauer for denying that known fact. It was ridiculous to suggest that Saddam Hussein didn't have weapons of mass destruction, and everyone knows that they're just hidden really well. And yet, there's absolutely no evidence to support that. It's all conjecture and wishful thinking. When presented with evidence that the weapons of mass destruction weren't there, he continues on, living in his fantasy world. We should be used to that by now. It's the same Walberg fantasy world where Iraq is as safe as Detroit, the Chinese are drilling off of the coast of Florida, Hurricane Katrina didn't cause any damage, Iraq was behind September 11, and global climate change isn't real. This isn't funny anymore. Labels: 2008 Election, Debates, Iraq, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Schauer's Closing Ad
Here's Mark Schauer's "closing argument," as articulated via television advertisement:
They released the ad on October 27, 2008, meaning it'll end up running for at most a week, and will probably be the last Schauer ad they see. I think it accomplishes a lot of things. First, starting off by panning across a large group of unemployed workers has a certain populist element in a year that I think populism is a catchy message. There's a sense that these people losing their jobs was an injustice, and that Mark Schauer is on their side-- and on your side, if the same thing happens to you. Second, it repeats the same message Schauer has stuck to for the entire campaign: he'll fight unfair trade agreements and fight for your jobs, while Tim Walberg thinks outsourcing is okay and won't fight for you. He's not trying some last-minute stunt or desperately changing messages. The Schauer campaign is comfortable with where they're at and think that it's working. Third, everything about the ad, from the phrasing of Schauer's script to the music in the background implies "hope," which, as Barack Obama has shown, is popular this year. Schauer won't just fight the special interests or whatever. He'll "get up every day and work hard to get people back to work." That's a nice message. And even so, it's couched in a certain degree of pragmatism-- the "I can't promise you that I can turn our economy around overnight" part. This is still a lean-conservative and lean-Republican district, and people won't vote for a Democrat they think is making ridiculously liberal assertions and promising to fix the world. Mark Schauer is promising to work hard, and will help make things better. Not perfect, but better. I think this is his strongest ad. But then again, I'm a biased observer. What did you think? Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Economy, Issues, Mark Schauer Walberg's Closing Ad
The Walberg campaign released what may be their final television advertisement for the season. For the first time since their first television ad, it's positive.
I don't have much commentary on this one. Maybe people will believe the "It's all lies!" message, but I think people are smart enough to know that he's been running a lot of negative ads, too, and some of those aren't entirely in line with the facts. (Anyone remember the "Schauer will give our children pornography" ad?) It's a little late to play yourself up as the poor, misunderstood guy who's getting attacked from all sides. I'm also vaguely reminded of this ad, from Governor Michael Dukakis in 1988: We all remember the stunningly successful Dukakis Administration, right? My point is, sometimes going on camera and saying, "They're lying about me!" comes across as whining, and doesn't sit well with people. Maybe it'll work for Tim Walberg, but it didn't do anything to help Dukakis as he dropped back in the polls. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Tim Walberg Walberg Ad: They're Lying About Me!
Although it's not on Tim Walberg's rarely-updated YouTube page, on October 20, Chris Gautz brought us one of the Walberg campaign's latest television ads:
Or, the short version: "Mark Schauer is lying!" I don't know how effective this will be. Rather than countering with actual rebuttals to Schauer's attacks, he's just issuing a blanket "He's lying!" as if that's enough. I don't know if it is. Of course, Chris Gautz, who's quoted in the ad, notes: I guess he decided to take a position-- though, it's not the position he's held before. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Issues, Mark Schauer, Social Security, Tim Walberg Schauer Ad: Walberg and Outsourcing
On October 19, 2008, the Schauer campaign released this television advertisement:
Following the standard pattern of negative-then-positive, I actually think this is a really good ad. Regardless of the validity of the economics behind outsourcing, almost everyone in Michigan knows someone who has a story about losing a job because the business moved operations elsewhere. And when Walberg said that outsourcing was "necessary and good," it was incredibly tone-deaf. But by closing on a positive note-- with a hopeful message and a legitimate Mark Schauer success story, Transpharm-- it casts Schauer as the good guy, on "our side." I'm not a big fan of negative advertising, but when you squeeze in some positive messaging, their value (to me, at least) increases. That's my take, anyway. What did you think? Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Schauer Ad: Walberg "Bought And Paid For"
On October 8th, 2008, the Schauer campaign released this ad:
I'll be honest, I'm not crazy about this one. Using an actor's voice to fill in for Walberg in an attack ad just seems unnecessary to me. That said, this is an issue I've criticized Walberg on countless times, and rightly so. He's been a reliable voice for the Club for Growth in Congress (to the detriment of his constituents). And, yeah, as Eric at Michigan Liberal notes, it's absolutely fair game to use this quote. Even so, I'd be surprised if this was the ad that resonated with voters. People care less about who contributed to whom and more about issues that affect them. A million dollars is a lot, but if you don't already know something about the Club for Growth, it's not going to mean much to you. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Club for Growth, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Walberg Attacks... Michael Moore?
On October 9th, 2008, the Walberg campaign released this television ad:
Contrasting it to their latest ad on the economy, the Schauer campaign had this to say: It's an interesting contrast. Schauer is focusing on the economy and how the incumbent's policies and supporters are making things worse, whereas Walberg's ad focuses on... Michael Moore.More seriously, though, what about the substance of the ad? Yes, Michael Moore does support Mark Schauer, and has contributed to him. Lots of people support Schauer, and that in and of itself shouldn't be a bad thing. It's not like Schauer's been flaunting Moore's endorsement. The tax increase attacks have been common throughout the campaign, and don't need to be addressed in this post. But the thing about giving drivers' licenses to illegal immigrants has been used less. Is there substance to that attack? Well, it turns out, yes and no. Yes, because Senator Schauer was against a provision that would prevent illegal immigrants from getting drivers' licenses, and no, because on the substance of the issue, Mark Schauer was right. Chris Gautz brings us the statement of then-state Representative Schauer when he cast his vote: "Mr. Speaker and members of the House:In other words, complicated problems require thoughtful solutions, not panicked moves without considering the consequences. It's easy to make bold pronouncements like, "Illegal immigrants shouldn't get drivers' licenses!" It's much harder to think through the tough situation that would create for everyone. Mark Schauer brings with him a thoughtful point of view. Tim Walberg brings only a rigid, out-of-touch ideology. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Illegal Immigration, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg AFSCME Ad: "Walberg For Wall Street"
YouTube user SeventhDem uploaded this advertisement on October 10, 2008. It's from the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, or AFSCME.
I'm not going to lie, I was cringing all the way through this. It would have been fine if it wasn't for the cartoon Wall Street executives popping up all the time. Seriously, that's as bad as "Sour for Schauer." Come on, guys, you're embarrassing our side! I think it's got the potential to be a fairly effective attack ad-- Wall Street isn't popular right now-- but it loses everything with the cartoons. Sorry, I just don't think it works. That's my shallow take on it. What did you think? Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, AFSCME, Issues, Taxes, Tim Walberg More From the DCCC
YouTube user SeventhDem (a phenomenal resource) uploaded this advertisement from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on October 22, 2008:
Ouch. We've talked about the sales tax thing before (though it's good to see them hitting him on it again), but I think this is probably one of the most pointed ads the DCCC has released. Notably, you come away from it remembering two parts. First, there's the man with the line, "What nut would support that?" I think the DCCC is hiring better writers-- it's certainly more memorable than "Sour on Schauer," and they only had to say it once. But the part that really leaves a mark is the end. While they phrase it as a question, it's clear what they want you to think: Tim Walberg both doesn't get it AND doesn't care. It paints him as out-of-touch with everyday needs and unconcerned with what you're going through. And, frankly, while the ad doesn't tell a balanced story on Walberg's sales tax, the closing of the ad is very accurate. Walberg didn't go to Washington to represent us, he went there to push a rigid, ideological agenda. The far-right conservatism he's embraced is one that doesn't have room for compassion or helping those in need-- at least, not when it comes to the federal government. Walberg doesn't realize that people are hurting, and when government is one of the tools in your toolbox, it's irresponsible not to use it. Use it carefully, sure. But you've got to use it. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, DCCC, Issues, National Sales Tax, Tim Walberg HCAN Increases Ad Buy In Response To Walberg
Do you remember this ad from Health Care America NOW?
On October 20, the Jackson Citizen Patriot reported: U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg's campaign is demanding that a television advertisement, which they called ``blatantly false,'' be pulled from the airwaves.Legal action? I knew it was an effective ad, but apparently it hit a really sour note with the Walberg people. The short version of their argument is that Walberg doesn't support letting insurance companies make the rules, but instead supports letting inter-state competition. As I said before, this doesn't let the insurance companies make the rules, but it does give them a bunch of options for which they want to follow, including giving them the option of rejecting coverage of pre-existing conditions. As far as legal action, I'm not quite sure what action they could take and actually expect anyone to take them seriously. But they did get a response out of Health Care for America NOW. From a press release: LANSING, MI -- Today, Health Care for America Now (HCAN) responded to Congressman Tim Walberg's threat to sue over a television ad by extending its television ad buy in Michigan and running a new print advertisement in the local weekly. HCAN is putting its hard-hitting ad – "Fighter" - back on the air in Congressman Walberg's district for three additional days and has taken out a full-page ad in the Tecumseh Herald asking "What Is Walberg Hiding?" You can see the ad they put in the Tecumseh Herald here. I'm glad to see that Health Care for America NOW isn't letting up on this. On the substance of issues, Tim Walberg is wrong, and it has the added benefit of being bad politics. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Health Care, Issues, Tim Walberg Ann Arbor News Endorses Schauer
Although Ann Arbor isn't in the 7th District, the Ann Arbor News still serves as the main newspaper for western Washtenaw County, a vote-rich battleground for this year's congressional race. And although Washtenaw County is solidly Democratic, thanks to Ann Arbor, the Ann Arbor News itself is a rather conservative paper. For instance, in 2004, they endorsed President George W. Bush (R), while Senator John Kerry went on to carry the county 63-35.
In 2006, the newspaper chose not to endorse between Renier and Walberg, judging Walberg too radical and Renier too, well, incompetent. Here's what they said about Walberg last time: Walberg's entrenched conservative stances on virtually every issue, from abortion to Iraq, offer no room for compromise - and that ideological rigidity should have no place in Congress. His unwillingness to engage in the necessary give and take of governance makes him an untenable choice.This year, it's different. In their October 24, 2008 issue, the Ann Arbor News endorsed state Senator Mark Schauer over Congressman Tim Walberg: You could tell that it hurt them to do that. Even so, the conservative Ann Arbor News endorsed the Democratic nominee in the 7th District race. That's a big deal. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg LSJ Endorses Schauer
The Lansing State Journal is a great resource for news on state government and the Lansing area, including Eaton County. They've watched Mark Schauer in Lansing up-close, and they've watched as Tim Walberg embarrasses his district in Washington. On Saturday, October 25, 2008, the Lansing State Journal endorsed Mark Schauer:
Voters in Michigan's 7th Congressional District have watched one of the nation's highest profile contests between incumbent Republican Tim Walberg and Democrat Mark Schauer.They also have a fairly decent response to Walberg's attacks on taxes: You can read the whole piece (and the angry comments) here. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Battle Creek Enquirer Endorses Schauer
It's not a huge surprise... From what I hear about Battle Creek's relationship with Mark Schauer, there would probably be rioting if they didn't do this. Nevertheless, it's important to note that the Battle Creek Enquirer endorsed state Senator Mark Schauer over Congressman Tim Walberg in the October 24, 2008 issue:
When it comes to the 7th Congressional District race, we endorse Democrat MARK SCHAUER over first-term incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg.It's a good endorsement, and you can read the whole thing here. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Detroit Free Press Endorses Schauer
Like the Detroit News, the Detroit Free Press isn't a 7th District newspaper and isn't all that widely read in the district, compared to local dailies. But it does help shape opinion in the state, and an endorsement does carry weight-- in particular, with the state and national groups that are looking to handicap races in Michigan. The Free Press tends to be more left-leaning than the conservative News, but it's also the most-read newspaper in Michigan.
In the October 24, 2008, issue, the Free Press discussed the historically low grade of challengers in Michigan's congressional races, and then highlighted and endorsed Mark Schauer and Gary Peters as bucking that trend. No matter what shape the state is in or how much Michigan voters gripe about Washington, they have a pattern of retaining their representatives in Congress. It's pretty tough to knock off an incumbent on these peninsulas. The result is challengers who are sometimes unqualified, usually underfinanced, and generally unable to offer assets equivalent to the experience and seniority that matter so much in the Washington power structure.and You can read the whole endorsement here. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Adrian Daily Telegram Endorses Walberg
It's not a huge surprise, since the paper leans right anyway, it's the only daily newspaper in Lenawee County, and it's endorsed Tim Walberg in the past. Nevertheless, it's worth mentioning that Adrian's Daily Telegram endorsed Congressman Tim Walberg in it's October 24, 2008 issue:
In Michigan’s 7th Congressional District race between Tim Walberg and Mark Schauer, playing up the candidates’ differing views on TV has been like shooting fish in a barrel. In real life, however, the actions of Rep. Walberg in Washington have turned out to be consistent and practical, and that is why voters should re-elect Walberg on Nov. 4.The editorial commends Walberg for what he's done in Congress (including many things I've criticized him for-- and I stand by all of my criticism), and then proceeds to call Mark Schauer a "big-government liberal." Yeah. If you're interested, you can read the whole editorial. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Detroit News Endorses Walberg
The Detroit News isn't a 7th District newspaper, but like it's rival the Free Press, it's still read throughout the state. An endorsement by the paper means less to voters than, say, the local dailies that cover the district, but more to the groups that are handicapping the race, particularly those from a conservative perspective. I discussed all of this in the post on the Free Press endorsement.
In 2006, the News refused to endorse Tim Walberg, judging him too "extreme," and opting for the comparatively safe Libertarian Robert Hutchinson. This time around, they've judged Walberg to be a standard Bush Republican-- which, in the eyes of the Detroit News, is a good thing. They've endorsed Congressman Tim Walberg for re-election. Meh. You can't win 'em all. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Walberg... Spells His Own Name Wrong?
Every now and then, a politician does something stupid that doesn't actually matter, but makes us all feel better about ourselves. When Barack Obama accidentally said he had visited "fifty-seven states," he didn't actually mean it. He was tired and he misspoke.
But it's fun to make fun of that anyway, just like it's fun to make fun of a minor mistake made by Congressman Tim Walberg, which the Schauer campaign jumped on, while noting a previous mistake: WALBERG SPELLS OWN NAME WRONG(Emphasis added.) And before anyone says anything, it wasn't just some staffer mis-typing something. This was a handwritten fundraising appeal which was passed on to the Schauer campaign. Shown below, Walberg spells his name two different ways:  and  Now, the actual story here is the panicked, last-minute fundraising appeal for "anything you can send," but that's not nearly as much fun as the spelling error. Then again, I have a tough to spell last name too, so I understand, Congressman Walberg. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Tim Walberg's Pre-General Fundraising
On October 23, 2008, Walberg for Congress filed the Pre-General report with the Federal Election Commission. It covers the period from October 1 to October 15.
In the fifteen-day period, Walberg raised $157,766.82. Of that, $89,621.82 came from individual donors, or about 57 percent. Included in that is $5,000 from the Republican National Committee. This brought his total fundraising for the cycle up to that point to $1,699,030.53. In the same period, Walberg spent $437,012.16. This included a $42,000 mailing and about $260,000 spent on "ads." At the close of the period, Walberg had $412,389.78 cash-on-hand. This is just 56 percent of Schauer's cash-on-hand. Schauer entered the final portion of the campaign with nearly twice as much money as Walberg. The Jackson Citizen Patriot's Chris Gautz looked at some notable contributors to the Walberg campaign during this period. It's interesting reading. Although significantly more than former Congressman Nick Smith's mere $125,506 raised in his 2002 reelection campaign and nearly twice former Congressman Joe Schwarz's $891,845 in 2004, Walberg only slightly outraised Schwarz's $1,608,883 for the 2006 Republican primary. Walberg's fundraising appears consistent with a Republican in a tough race, unlike the extraordinary records set by Schauer. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Tim Walberg Mark Schauer's Pre-General Fundraising
On October 23, 2008, Schauer for Congress filed the Pre-General report with the Federal Election Commission. It covers the period from October 1 to October 15.
In the fifteen-day period covered by the report, Mark Schauer raised $223,453.73, plus almost $3,000 transferred from the joint committee with 9th District Democrat Gary Peters. Of the contributions he received, $164,861.37 came from individual donors, or about 74 percent. The Schauer campaign raised a total of $2,016,586.85 for the entire cycle up to that date. The Schauer for Congress committee also spent $347,638.14 in that period, including a $101,409.82 media buy and a $100,000.00 transfer to the Michigan Democratic Party. As a result of these expenditures, the Schauer campaign's cash-on-hand as of October 15 was $734,888.42. Chris Gautz at the Jackson Citizen Patriot picked out some significant contributors during this filing period. It's interesting reading. The total dollar amount raised for every Democratic nominee in the 7th District since the 2002 cycle (when the current boundaries were adopted) and prior to 2008 is $115,718. That is, the total amount of money raised for the 2002, 2004, and 2006 nominees was $115,718. In 15 days, Mark Schauer raised almost twice that, and for the whole cycle, has raised raised that more than 17 times over. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer Tim Walberg's Third Quarter Fundraising
On October 15, 2008, Tim Walberg's campaign filed their third quarter fundraising report with the Federal Elections Commission. It covers the period from July 1, 2008 to September 30, 2008.
In this quarter, Walberg raised $332,918.63, with $183,672.93, or about 55 percent, coming from individual donors. The rest came from political action committees or some organ of the Republican Party. In the same quarter, Walberg spent $496,420.85, slightly more than half of all expenditures in the cycle up to that point. Many of the more expensive purchases are for "advertising" or "production," reflecting the start of serious general election campaigning. At the end of the quarter, Walberg had $691,635.12 cash-on-hand. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Tim Walberg Mark Schauer's Third Quarter Fundraising
On October 15, 2008, the Schauer for Congress campaign filed their third quarter fundraising report with the Federal Elections Commission. It covers the period from July 1, 2008 to September 30, 2008.
In this quarter, Schauer raised $458,652.03, with $305,534.39 coming from individual donors, or about 67 percent. The rest came from political action committees or other, similar groups. For the entire election cycle up to the end of September, Schauer raised $1,790,209.25. In the same quarter, Schauer spent $531,189.52. This accounts for more than half of all their spending in this election cycle, including large "media production" costs-- presumably, television ads-- reflecting the start of the general election period. The campaign finished the quarter with $856,148.96 cash-on-hand. This quarter is the fifth straight quarter in which Mark Schauer has out-raised Tim Walberg. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer Fox News: Walberg Will Lose
Ouch. It's got to hurt when Fox News, always willing to put a more optimistic spin on things for Republicans, says Tim Walberg will lose:
MI 7: Rep. Tim Walberg (R) is one of the most-endangered Republicans this cycle in a contest against Mark Schauer. Expect a Democratic win. Especially after McCain pulled out of Michigan.This won't mean a thing on Election Day, however. You've still got to get out there and help get out the vote for Mark Schauer. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Larry Sabato: Schauer Will Win
(Thanks to the multiple people that e-mailed me about this.)
On his "Crystal Ball" website, Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, published his "next-to-last" predictions for Election Day 2008. They're pretty good for the Democrats all around, but here's the part that matters to me the most:  I don't know if you can see it on there, but "MI-07 (Walberg)" is under the "Democratic Pick-up" column. Yeah, it's just one prediction, and it won't matter at all in five days. But it's good to see anyway.Mind you, this is no time to get overconfident. Mark Schauer is going to need everyone's help to get out the vote. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg US News & World Report: GOP Thinks Walberg Will Lose
This showed up all over the internet, but is definitely worth repeating here. A Republican memo leaked to U.S. News & World Report had the expected losses for the GOP on Election Day:
The document provided to Whispers is no gag: It comes from one of the key House GOP vote counters. The source called it a "death list." The tally shows several different ratings of 66 House Republicans in difficult races or open seats held by retiring Republicans. "Rating 1" finds 10 Republicans "likely gone." Those districts are New York 13, Alaska, Arizona 1, Virginia 11, New York 25, Illinois 11, Florida 24, Michigan 7, Nevada 3, and North Carolina 8.(Emphasis added.) Ouch. Congressman Walberg, your party says you're going to lose! Mind you, now isn't the time to be overconfident. Go sign up to volunteer to get out the vote! Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Tim Walberg DCCC Poll: Schauer 43, Walberg 35
Catching up... -- Fitzy
For the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Benenson Strategy Group conducted a poll over October 6 and 7, 2008. With a margin of error of 4.9 percent, here's what they found: Mark Schauer (D) - 43 Tim Walberg (R-inc.) - 35 The press release didn't release details like sample size or, for that matter, if they asked any other questions, and I'm mentioning this late enough that I feel silly asking for those details now. Suffice it to say, this seems more or less in line with the poll the Schauer campaign released at about the same time. Right now, I'm inclined to believe that both polls are accurate, and Schauer is leading by a respectable margin, with a lot of undecideds. Why? It's been weeks, and the Walberg folks haven't released their own counter-poll. If they had better-looking data than this, you'd better believe they'd release it. Labels: 2008 Election, DCCC, Mark Schauer, Poll, Tim Walberg Thursday, October 16, 2008 19 Days Out
I've been sick and extremely busy in my non-Walberg Watch life. These things combined make blogging a low priority. But I'm back now, hopefully more consistently, for the next 19 days.
I'm going to have substantive posts coming up soon, but for the moment, I'm going to leave you with this: There are 19 days left between now and Election Day. In that time, a single volunteer with Mark Schauer's campaign could easily make 400 phone calls or 200 doors volunteering just twice a week for two hours each time. Those are very reasonable numbers for just one person, working at a reasonable pace. If you can't give up two hours of your time, you can write a letter to the editor, detailing why Mark Schauer is the right choice for Michigan's 7th District. You can tell your friends and neighbors about the irresponsible votes cast by Tim Walberg. You can spend five minutes calling up your college-age child to make sure he or she has gotten an absentee ballot. There's a lot of work to be done between now and Election Day, and the Get Out The Vote effort is going to be an enormous challenge, especially in a district as large as Michigan's 7th District. It's not about chipping in $20 or putting a bumper sticker on your car anymore. We've reachd the serious part of the campaign. It's up to you. What are you going to do to help elect Mark Schauer? Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Thursday, October 09, 2008 Walberg DID Call Social Security "Socialism"!
(Thanks to the reader who e-mailed me about this.)
Some regular readers of this blog and of Chris Gautz's work at the Jackson Citizen Patriot website remember this advertisement put out by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee: Right from the start, the ad cites an article in the Daily Telegram from 2004 in which Walberg calls Social Security "socialism." It's certainly not a good quote for Walberg-- as the ad notes, a lot of people rely on Social Security, and the negative connotation "socialism" carries is likely to offend a lot of people. Chris Gautz was doubtful about the accuracy of the quote, mainly because, as a former employee of the Telegram, he had thought he would remember a quote that explosive. Although I probably would have read that article in 2004, my memory for these sorts of things is awful, so I deferred judgment to a later date. But thanks to the magic of the internet and the wonders of active readers, Chris brought us the answer: Walberg did call Social Security "socialism"! Here's the text of the article: ADRIAN -- Tuesday's debate between Republicans and Democrats running for the 7th District Congressional seat allowed candidates to inform the public about their views, but led to little debate.So, yes, now-Congressman Tim Walberg called Social Security "socialism" in 2004. Labels: 2004 Election, 2008 Election, Advertising, DCCC, Drew Walker, Issues, Social Security, Tim Walberg Walberg For Privatizing Social Security Before He Was Against It Even Though He's For It
At last night's debate in Adrian, Congressman Tim Walberg and state Senator Mark Schauer talked about privatizing Social Security. Here's what happened, via the Jackson Citizen Patriot's Chris Gautz:
and Holly Klaft: And, finally, the Schauer campaign has this quote: "I have never taken a position to privatize Social Security."Now, I haven't gotten my hands on any audio from the debate (yet), so I can't give you the unfiltered exchange. But let's suppose that this is all that happened. For starters, when it says: He has said he would support giving future workers the option of putting part of their payroll taxes in personal accounts.Well, Congressman Walberg, that is privatization of Social Security. At least, that's the sort of plan generally accepted as privatizing Social Security. People get into trouble by relying on Wikipedia too much, but the article on this debate, while not the best, has a decent explanation of what "personal accounts" means-- namely, that individuals could take money they pay into the Social Security system and invest it in stocks and bonds. So, Congressman Walberg, when this happened: And this: "I have never taken a position to privatize Social Security."Well, you weren't exactly being honest. And then this: That's basically true. No one's really been pushing that idea lately. It basically died in 2005, due to lack of support and a lack of political capital for President Bush. But that didn't stop Tim Walberg from supporting it in 2006, so much so that he put it on his website: Tim supports President Bush’s efforts to expand our ownership society by allowing younger workers to voluntarily invest a portion of their payroll taxes and allowing the money to be secured in personal investment accounts.And in 2004, he also put on his website: Tim Walberg believes Social Security benefits must be protected and younger workers should have the option of investing a portion of their payroll taxes in stocks, bonds, or money market funds. Under this reform, younger workers will earn a higher rate of return and likely retire with far more funds than under the current system.Those claims are a little dubious, but that's beside the point-- in 2004 and 2006, Walberg was clearly on the record as supporting privatizing Social Security. And then, in September, from the Detroit News: Walberg, R-Tipton, supports changing the program so younger workers could choose to invest a portion of their Social Security money in private investment accounts.And this from the Citizen Patriot the next day: My point, of course, is to say that yes, Congressman Walberg, you do support privatizing Social Security. You didn't call it that, but Holly Klaft equated your plan with privatization, and we didn't hear any calls for a retraction. And just a few days ago, Chris Gautz made the same connection between "privatization" and the Walberg plan: Also in the ad, it points out Walberg's support of "privatization," which is another way of saying he supports giving future workers the option of saving part of their payroll taxes in personal accounts. Of course those accounts could be subject to the whims of the market, and especially this week, might not be the most popular idea.So, Congressman, when you said: "I have never taken a position to privatize Social Security."well, that was just a lie. You have taken a position in favor of privatizing Social Security. The only thing you haven't done is used the magical word "privatize." Needless to say, the Schauer campaign is jumping on this (and rightly so): Labels: 2008 Election, Debates, Issues, Mark Schauer, Social Security, Tim Walberg Health Care for America NOW Launches Ad Against Walberg
The fun part about living in a district with lots of national attention is that you get to learn all about political groups you'd never heard of before.
The Hill reports: It will be interesting to see the kind of impact they might have on the campaign. Personally, I'd like to see all candidates talk about health care more, and, to his credit, it's something Mark Schauer rarely fails to mention. With Health Care for America NOW, all I can hope is that the "telephone campaigning" doesn't include robocalls. Please, nobody likes those. Here's the television ad they're running against Tim Walberg: Ouch. Maybe I'm just a receptive audience, but I'd say that it's a pretty effective ad. The bill they mention is HR 4460, the "Health Care Choice Act of 2007," of which Tim Walberg is a cosponsor. It was introduced but never made it out of committee, and for a good reason. The bill would allow health insurance companies to sell insurance across state lines, potentially opening you up to cheaper options, should you decide to purchase health insurance on your own. However, by allowing health insurance companies to designate a "primary" state and making them exempt from the laws of all other "secondary" states in which they sell, that would mean insurers could choose as a "primary" state somewhere that, say, doesn't have a law requiring that they cover pre-existing conditions. The ad says it would let the insurance companies "make the rules," and that's not quite true. It's more that it would let the insurance companies pick and choose which combination of rules they want to follow. (Thanks to Wikipedia and this blog for guiding me in the right direction.) Anyway, that's the policy behind the ad. Now, back to the politics. In addition to the television ad, Congressman Walberg is featured on a website they launched, WhichSideAreTheyOn.com. Walberg's page, with a side-by-side comparison to Mark Schauer, leaves the reader with one clear conclusion-- Tim Walberg's not on your side. They also include a .pdf file with a good summary of Walberg's record on health care. It's certainly a must-read for anyone planning to talk with friends or relatives, and should be added to the talking points for Schauer volunteers going door-to-door. Labels: 110th Congress, 2008 Election, Advertising, Health Care, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg NRCC Releases Attack Ad
Not content to just fund Tim Walberg's attack ads, on October 7, 2008, the National Republican Congressional Committee released an attack ad of its own against Mark Schauer:
As the always-observant Chris Gautz points out, there's more than one side to the kicked-off-committee story: Maybe I'm just a partisan Democrat, but I remember thinking at the time that it seemed like Senator McManus had other motives than just encouraging good attendance. But really, that line of attack strikes me as too inside-baseball to resonate with voters. When people are worried about jobs and losing their homes, "Mark Schauer is a troublemaker who got kicked off his committee" doesn't seem like it'll matter all that much to me. You know, I can even see it going further the other way, too-- John McCain's popularity was partly from his "maverick" image, and getting kicked off your committee is one way to show your independence from the status quo. Maybe Tim Walberg should have tried harder to get kicked off of a committee... But now I'm just getting silly. It's a creative ad, but I don't think it'll do anything other than reinforce the "largest tax increase" narrative. But if Mark Schauer's internal polling is to be believed, that's a narrative that's just not working. Schauer's taking the lead and is more trusted on taxes than Tim Walberg. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Issues, Mark Schauer, NRCC, Taxes, Tim Walberg The State of the Race From Susan Demas
A friend pointed me in the direction of an article by Susan Demas in the Lansing City Pulse, which more or less describes the 7th District race up to this point. Although she leaves out the fun details you get by reading Walberg Watch, it's a pretty good description of the state of the race, including the history behind it from 2006. If you're just joining us now, or have friends or relatives who don't know much about what's going on, it's a good starting point.
The short version of the article is that Tim Walberg has a lot of built-in advantages from his district map and is a good campaigner, but Mark Schauer is also an exceptional campaigner, and has lots and lots of money. Also, if Joe Schwarz were still in Congress, he'd be there for the rest of his life and no one would complain. I've had some differences with Susan Demas (which is healthy), and, while I generally focus on the articles she writes that are critical of Tim Walberg, she's also had not so kind things to say about Mark Schauer and the progressive blogosphere. Sometimes, I've been offended. Sometimes, she's much more confrontational than I would be. Sometimes, I've walked away in disgust and frustration. But all of that is okay. She's filling her role, and we're filling our roles. This is how politics works. Susan Demas is a good journalist, which makes her worth paying close attention to, even when she's wrong. Go read her City Pulse article. It's a good read and it paints an optimistic picture for Mark Schauer. But more than that, it gives a good overview of the race from a solid reporter. Before you get too pessimistic or too confident, you need a good review of the state of the race to bring you back to reality. Right. That was entirely too much praise for this blog. I've got to get back to bashing Tim Walberg. Labels: 2008 Election, Journalism, Mark Schauer, Susan Demas, Tim Walberg ArchivesAugust 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 November 2007 December 2007 January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 |
Important Dates
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