WALBERG LIES ABOUT SUPPORT FOR PRIVATIZING SOCIAL SECURITY AT ADRIAN DEBATE
Schauer has a clear record of fighting to protect guaranteed Social Security benefitsBATTLE CREEK—During last night’s debate at Siena Heights University in Adrian, Congressman Tim Walberg once again lied about his stance on Social Security, saying, “I have never taken a position to privatize Social Security.” In fact, less than a month ago Walberg told the Jackson Citizen Patriot that he, “supports giving future workers the option of saving part of their payroll taxes in personal accounts.” [Citizen Patriot, 9/9/08]
Such a policy would slash benefits by more than 40 percent for future retirees, replace guaranteed Social Security benefits with risky private accounts, drain trillions of dollars from the Social Security Trust Fund, and increase America’s debt to foreign nations by about $5 trillion over 20 years. [http://www.cbpp.org/12-17-04socsec.pdf; http://www.cbpp.org/5-1-06socsec.htm]
“Tim Walberg can call it whatever he wants, but the bottom line is that private accounts would effectively kill Social Security as we know it,” said Schauer spokesman Zack Pohl. “At a time when the financial meltdown has cost more than $2 trillion in lost retirement funds, working families and seniors can’t afford to put Wall Street CEOs in charge of our Social Security benefits.”
Background:
Walberg also supported private accounts for Social Security during his 2006 campaign: "I support efforts to expand our ownership society by allowing younger workers to voluntarily invest a portion of their payroll taxes and allowing the money to be secured in personal investment accounts. Once the system is fully transitioned into personal investment accounts, the system will involve real savings and real rates of return.” [Detroit News, 7/17/06]
Walberg has received more than $1 million in campaign support from the extreme Club for Growth, a group that also supports personal retirement accounts for Social Security. [Club for Growth Press Release, 8/8/06; www.clubforgrowth.org/about.php]
In March 2005, Vice President Dick Cheney visited Battle Creek to support President Bush's plan to privatize Social Security. That same week, Sen. Schauer hosted a town hall meeting with Congressman Sandy Levin to oppose Bush's privatization efforts. [http://www.woodtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=3122588&nav=0RceXskT]
According to the Social Security Office of Policy Data, there are roughly 126,552 seniors in the 7th district who receive Social Security benefits. [http://www.socialsecurity.gov/policy/docs/factsheets/cong_stats/2007/]
# # #
Walberg Watch
Blog
Home - Blog - Media Center - Action - Submit Content - Issues
About Tim Walberg - About Mark Schauer - About the Democrats - About Michigan's 7th District - About Us
Contact Us - Disclaimer
Blog
Home - Blog - Media Center - Action - Submit Content - Issues
About Tim Walberg - About Mark Schauer - About the Democrats - About Michigan's 7th District - About Us
Contact Us - Disclaimer
|
Friday, November 07, 2008 Schauer Victory Speech and What's Next
The Schauer campaign put Congressman-elect Schauer's victory speech on YouTube. The speech was given sometime shortly after 1:00am, Wednesday, November 5.
The quote at the end of the video is a good one, but I just wanted to highlight one other thing he said: Politics is about competing visions, but governing is about people coming together for a common purpose, and I intend to help govern.This is one of the reasons I like Mark Schauer-- he sees this distinction. It's what allows him to campaign as a proud Democrat, but still work with, say, Republican Joe Schwarz to save the Battle Creek Air National Guard base. It's what let him set aside the politics of the state budget crisis and make some tough decisions and compromise-- angering both conservatives and the all-important MEA-- in order to keep our state running. It's not about ideology, it's about making government work for people and solving problems. That's the hard part. That's what's next for Mark Schauer. Thank you to the kind comments I've received-- including from Walberg supporters. This is by no means the end of Walberg Watch, though its name will probably be changing sometime soon. We've got a state Senate race coming up soon to replace the vacancy Senator Schauer created, and it's one where Democrats need to hold on. We've got the state legislators and the county and city governments of this district, whose decisions impact our lives more directly than anything Mark Schauer or Barack Obama will be doing. And yeah, we've got Congressman-elect Mark Schauer. Just because he's a Democrat doesn't mean he doesn't need to be watched from time to time. I'm not quite sure how this is going to work yet, but I hope you'll keep coming back. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Wednesday, November 05, 2008 Schauer Wins - Final Results Thread
All precincts have now reported. Here are the (unofficial) final results, via MLive:
356 of 356 Precincts Reporting - 100%
That's a margin of 7,423 votes. Via CNN, here are the county totals: Branch (100% reporting) Walberg - 9,865 - 56% Schauer - 6,879 - 39% Calhoun (100% reporting) Walberg - 23,920 - 40% Schauer - 33,649 - 56% Eaton (100% reporting) Walberg - 24,876 - 45% Schauer - 27,648 - 49% Hillsdale (100% reporting) Walberg - 12,015 - 60% Schauer - 6,981 - 35% Jackson (100% reporting) Walberg - 34,231 - 47% Schauer - 34,977 - 48% Lenawee (100% reporting) Walberg - 22,950 - 49% Schauer - 22,018 - 47% Washtenaw (100% reporting) Walberg - 21,909 - 44% Schauer - 25,037 - 51% And now it's all over. Note that Schauer won Calhoun, Eaton, Jackson, and Washtenaw Counties, while Walberg won only Branch, Hillsdale, and Lenawee Counties. It's also worth noting that Lenawee County-- which President-Elect Barack Obama won-- went to Walberg by only 932 votes. That's incredible. Thank you, Congressman Walberg, for your service. Although I've been very critical, I don't doubt that you acted with the country's best interests at heart. We just have a disagreement on what's best for the country. Congratulations, Congressman-elect Schauer. Now comes the hard part. Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Ken Proctor, Lynn Meadows, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Walberg Concedes (Almost), Schauer Declares Victory
UPDATE: For final results, click here.
From the Battle Creek Enquirer: U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, R-Tipton, all but conceded Michigan’s 7th Congressional District race to Democratic challenger Mark Schauer, who declared victory about 2 a.m. today.That's good enough for me. I'm done for the night. The Enquirer has slightly different numbers than I do via the MLive site. Here's where they've got the results as of right now: 324 of 356 Precincts Reporting - 91%
That's a margin of 4,365 votes. It's close, but it should hold. By county: Branch (100% reporting) Walberg - 9,865 - 56% Schauer - 6,879 - 39% Calhoun (100% reporting) Walberg - 23,920 - 40% Schauer - 33,649 - 56% Eaton (70% reporting) Walberg - 21,571 - 45% Schauer - 23,209 - 49% Hillsdale (100% reporting) Walberg - 12,015 - 60% Schauer - 6,981 - 35% Jackson (100% reporting) Walberg - 34,231 - 47% Schauer - 34,977 - 48% Lenawee (83% reporting) Walberg - 19,361 - 52% Schauer - 16,627 - 45% Washtenaw (90% reporting) Walberg - 20,060 - 44% Schauer - 23,066 - 51% The winner or current leader in each county is italicized. We're still waiting on results from three Windsor precincts in Eaton County, the seven precincts covering the entire city of Adrian in Lenawee County (.pdf), and four precincts in Webster Township in Washtenaw County. If they have any meaningful impact, I think it will be Adrian adding to Schauer's margin and making Lenawee County a little bit closer. I don't know enough about the voting patterns of the others to speak intelligently. (Fun fact for the night: Even without Adrian, Senator Barack Obama actually leads in Lenawee County right now, 49.10 percent to 48.81 percent. Wow!) Personally, I'm not comfortable calling this, and I'm nervous that I'll wake up tomorrow morning and be disappointed. Maybe that's why I'm just a blogger and not a professional political operative. I'll have a longer write-up sometime when all the results are in. Until then, congratulations to all of the candidates. It's finally over. Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Ken Proctor, Lynn Meadows, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Tuesday, November 04, 2008 Election Day - Results
UPDATE: For final results, click here.
From MLive, which loads faster than everyone else right now: 1:09am - Schauer's up to a 433-vote lead. This is going to be a precinct-by-precinct thing for a while. (Note: I've moved previous updates below.) 1:18am - Schauer up by about 1,500. But I'm not ready to breathe yet. 1:36am - Finally, another update! Schauer now leads by about 1,700. 1:41am - In that last update, about half of Jackson County came in as one big block. In Jackson County, it went from Walberg 50-45 to Schauer 48-47. Wow. 1:47am - Schauer has a 5,000-vote lead now. But I'm still holding my breath. 1:57am - Schauer's lead dropped a bit, but he's still ahead by about 4,200 votes. 2:05am - It's getting close again... Schauer's lead is under 4,000 votes. Will it last the rest of the night? The good news is, Hillsdale is done. 2:10am - Now about a 3,600-vote lead. Only 33 precincts left. 2:14am - It's down to Eaton, Lenawee, and Washtenaw. Is Walberg strong enough in any of them to push him back over the top? Schauer's back up to a 4,300-vote lead. 2:23am - Just to be clear, the lead is enough to say that probably, probably, this is a Schauer win. But I'm a suspicious person, so while the folks at the Schauer election night party are celebrating, I'm not quite ready to say it's done. That 62-vote lead he had at one point spooked me. 324 of 356 Precincts Reporting - 91%
----- County-By-County Results, via CNN (Note: These will be updated less frequently): Branch (100% reporting) Walberg - 9,865 - 56% Schauer - 6,879 - 39% Calhoun (100% reporting) Walberg - 23,920 - 40% Schauer - 33,649 - 56% Eaton (70% reporting) Walberg - 45% Schauer - 49% Hillsdale (100% reporting) Walberg - 12,015 - 60% Schauer - 6,981 - 35% Jackson (100% reporting) Walberg - 34,231 - 47% Schauer - 34,977 - 48% Lenawee (83% reporting) Walberg - 52% Schauer - 45% Washtenaw (90% reporting) Walberg - 44% Schauer - 51% 11:00pm - CNN: Barack Obama is elected President of the United States 12:15am - For the moment, Schauer seems to have stalled out about 4,000 votes short of Walberg, but there's still a lot left to come. I think, if I'm reading the county clerk websites right, that all of Adrian and all of Delta Township have yet to report. I've got no idea what's happening in Jackson. 12:19am - Chris Gautz at the Citizen Patriot went to bed twenty minutes ago, but I'm still here. I'm taking a short break to stretch my legs, get some caffeine, and grab some non-political stuff to work on while I'm here. I'll be back soon. 12:24am - Walberg widens his lead. Now I'm actually going to go take a break. 12:33am - Schauer cuts the lead to 1,500 votes. 12:36am - What pushed Schauer up just now? Delta Township, in which he won all but three precincts. 12:48am - About 2,000 votes down. 12:51am - Woah! Mark Schauer jumps to a 1,400-vote lead. 12:54am - That was a big chunk of western Washtenaw coming in. Schauer went from a 48-47 lead to a 52-43 lead. Watch for Lenawee County to narrow a bit-- still no Adrian-- but it looks like it'll all come down to Jackson County, which is only 45 percent in. 1:00am - Ah! Schauer leads, but only by 227 votes. That was a chunk of Jackson County. 1:06am - Schauer leads by 62. Ah! Labels: 2008 Election, Ken Proctor, Lynn Meadows, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Update: GO VOTE! Find Your Polling Place
Bumped up. - Fitzy
Not sure where to go? Google has the answer! Follow the link for a special map, where you can type in your address and it will tell you where to go to vote and how to get there. What do you need when vote? Although not required to vote, some form of photo identification is helpful. If you don't have any, you can still vote, but you'll have to sign an affidavit saying that you don't have any. If you've got a driver's license or a state ID card, just bring that. For more information on voting or to see a sample ballot, visit the Michigan Secretary of State's website. You should vote. This is important. UPDATE: Share your voting stories in the comments, if you'd like. UPDATE II: Shorter Susan Demas: Walberg is "bought and paid for" by the Club for Growth, and he meant it when he said it. Schauer will win (maybe), and Schauer should win, but she's still somewhat disappointed. When you're done reading that, GO VOTE! UPDATE III: Live results, courtesy of Google: UPDATE IV: Here's an alternate live results map, thanks to our friends at Daily Kos: Labels: 2008 Election Closing Arguments
Bumped. It's Election Day. - Fitzy
From WILX, via YouTube user SeventhDem: That's the scripted message each candidate wanted to put forward. For a more complete and unfiltered discussion of the issues, you can listen to, watch, or read coverage of three debates from the last month. Many thanks to WKHM 970 AM, which brings us .mp3 audio files of three debates.
In addition, Senator Schauer has been crossing the district for his closing "Everywhere, Everyday, Every Job Counts" tour. If you need a last opportunity to meet Mark Schauer, here's your chance for tomorrow: I've met both men, heard them both speak on the issues, and watched or listened to all three debates. My vote goes to Mark Schauer. Labels: 2008 Election, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Election Day - What To Watch For
From 7:00pm to 9:00pm, I'm going to be away from a computer-- and, in fact, away from any televisions, radios, or other devices which report election results. During arguably the most exciting portion of the night, when Virginia may be called for Obama, or when the returns start coming in for the Georgia Senate race, or when our own district begins reporting, I won't be able to be a part of it.
For a political junkie like me, that's like missing the World Series, the Rose Bowl (Go 'Cats! I believe in you!), and the World Cup all at once, which, by the way, are also on Christmas. Tomorrow could be a really amazing day, and I’m disappointed that I’ll be missing a big part of it. But when I do get to a computer, I’ll be looking for a few things. I don't claim to have a secret formula or know which tiny town will be the bellwether, and I'm definitely not a Grebner-like expert. But I can tell you what I think a Schauer victory might look like, and where I’ll be looking for it. Turnout in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties With 98 percent of Michigan's voting population registered, there are a lot of people who could show up to vote. That’s got to worry Tim Walberg, whose victory in the 2006 GOP primary was thanks to what former Congressman Joe Schwarz called a "motivated minority" of 7.8 percent in a low-turnout primary. (Schwarz also called them "quasi-theocrats... infiltrating the party power structure"). Granted, a general election is very different from a primary, but a Walberg victory will depend on certain people not showing up, namely in Calhoun County, where Mark Schauer could run up the margin. But Walberg has someone working against him: Barack Obama. The Obama campaign has done a phenomenal job of registering new voters who are trending Democratic. But they didn't ask prospective voters for a partisan affiliation before they registered them, nor should they have. In a Republican-leaning district, is it possible that the Obama campaign might have just registered a bunch of new Republicans? Maybe, but judging from where the new voters are coming from, probably not. With help from the Detroit Free Press (who got the data from the Michigan Secretary of State), here's a fun table: County Reg. Voters New Voters % Change (Jan. - Oct.) Branch 31,805 683 +2% Calhoun* 103,707 3,950 +4% Eaton 80,023 2,781 +4% Hillsdale 33,327 724 +2% Jackson 115,357 4,672 +4% Lenawee 71,552 2,170 +3% Washtenaw* 273,955 24,962 +10% Note that both Calhoun and Washtenaw Counties have portions not in the 7th District. This is especially important in Washtenaw County, where Ann Arbor (and the University of Michigan) probably accounts for most of the voters and most of the growth. However, Battle Creek, which is in the district, is the major population center for Calhoun County, and is probably responsible for most of that growth. So for our simplified purposes here, let's ignore Washtenaw County but keep Calhoun County. As you can see, the most new voters were added in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties (both in absolute number of voters and in proportion to their populations). Calhoun County is generally considered safe territory for Mark Schauer, who has represented the voters there in the state House and Senate since 1996 and is generally very popular. Jackson and Eaton Counties, meanwhile, are the major "battlegrounds." Not only are they vote-rich, but they were divided pretty evenly in the 2006 election (Eaton: Renier 50 Walberg 48; Jackson: Walberg 51 Renier 46). Although Schauer currently represents much of Jackson County in the state Senate, I’m expecting it to be a major battleground again. Neglected in the voter registration drives were the Walberg strongholds of Branch and Hillsdale Counties, and to a lesser degree, Lenawee County (more on it in a minute). I don't have solid data behind me, but I'm going to guess that if they turn out to vote, the new voters in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties will break Democratic. If they were registered by the Obama folks, they were probably targeted as students or underrepresented populations, which is probably good news for Mark Schauer. At least, that’s what I'm hoping. In 2006, Calhoun County had 47.5 percent turnout, Eaton County had 59.9 percent turnout, and Jackson County had 51.8 percent turnout (data here and here). If turnout is higher than that in those three counties (and especially Calhoun County), new voters and Schauer loyalists could run up enough of a margin to offset losses in the southern part of the district. If the turnout is really big in Calhoun County, that might be the whole ball game. Is that a possibility? Could central-west Michigan see a massive surge in turnout? I don’t know, but it sounds like Kalamazoo County (one west from Calhoun County) is getting ready for one: KALAMAZOO -- Bracing for a very long and very busy Tuesday, area election officials say they're "as ready as we'll ever be" for the 2008 presidential election. Lenawee County This is where Tim Walberg should win. He represented Lenawee County for 16 years in the state House of Representatives, and the mostly rural county is famous (or infamous) for its conservative politics and sometimes frightening tendencies. (Anyone else remember "Radio Free Lenawee"?) This is where I'm from, and I can say that it is a conservative place. At the same time, though, people don't really like Tim Walberg all that much. Oh, sure, some do. Whenever I was canvassing, I was bound to run into someone who would say, "I plan to vote for Tim, I’ve known him for years" or something like that. But I'd also meet someone who'd say, "Walberg? I can’t believe we keep electing that guy!" The solidly-Republican state House seat Walberg vacated has been in Democratic hands (albeit moderate ones) for ten years. With state Representative Dudley Spade basically guaranteed reelection, it'll stay that way for at least two more years. Meanwhile, the county is changing. Before the economy got really bad, a lot of people were moving out to Clinton or Tecumseh from Ann Arbor or metro Detroit for the cheaper properties, willing to put up with the couple-hour commute. They don’t have a relationship with Tim Walberg, and some of them are even (gasp) Democrats. And the Schauer campaign has taken the county seriously, opening an office in downtown Adrian and hiring a full-time field organizer to staff it and coordinate with the Obama and Spade campaigns. Whenever he's in the county, Mark Schauer is certain to mention his great relationship with Doug and Dudley Spade, both of whom carry a lot of weight. (Side note: Their secret to success? They're actually really good representatives. If you go to Dudley Spade with a problem, he'll do everything he can to solve it.) Throw in the Obama organizers, and you've got a real chance for 2008 to be a year of Democratic revival in Lenawee County. Will Mark Schauer win it? ... No. It just won't happen. But he can keep it close. Governor Jennifer Granholm managed to take 47 percent of the vote in 2006, and if Schauer can get a similar share of the vote and hold Walberg to 51 or 52 percent, it could mean a lot. If Schauer opens up a big lead in Calhoun County and Washtenaw County, then there just aren’t enough voters in Branch and Hillsdale Counties to make up for it. Walberg needs to win Lenawee County convincingly. If Lenawee County is as tight as the other "battlegrounds," it's going to be a rough night for Tim Walberg. And what if Mark Schauer wins Lenawee County? Then short of something really unexpected happening, Schauer will win the district. But like I said, Schauer won't win Lenawee County. I'm not going to let my hopes get that high. Obama Barack Obama is going to win the state of Michigan. The only question left is "How big?" Since John McCain pulled out of Michigan, it's started to look pretty big. Here's the Pollster.com chart for Michigan: That's quite a sight, isn't it? The final Pollster average puts it at Obama +16, which would be a bigger margin than Bill Clinton’s +13 win in 1996. That year, with the help of Ross Perot, Bill Clinton carried four of the counties that currently make up the 7th District: Calhoun, Washtenaw, Lenawee, and Branch. Calhoun and Washtenaw are to be expected, but Lenawee and Branch surprised me when I looked back at them. After all, these are supposed to be the conservative parts of the district. Supposing Obama has similar success, picking up Calhoun, western Washtenaw, and at least one other county, is there any way Mark Schauer can lose? I'm not sure what the Obama-Walberg voter looks like, and I'd be shocked to see Obama carrying Jackson County by a wide margin but Schauer losing it. Maybe it's possible, but Mark Schauer has done a good job presenting himself as a moderate and a hard-working, dependable public servant. If Obama wins big, I can't imagine any reason for the Obama voter to choose "more of the same" and Tim Walberg. ***** Upon re-reading all of that, I'm worried that I'm being too optimistic and tempting fate for another disappointing election night. It's possible. Even so, and despite not having any idea of what I'm doing, I think that most of my reasoning has some foundation to it. I think one of the three factors above (if not all of them) could contribute to a Schauer victory. That's what I'll be looking for, sometime around 9:15pm Eastern Time. It's possible that there will be a clear leader by the time I arrive on the scene. We'll see soon enough if any of this is right. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Barack Obama, Dudley Spade, John McCain, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg 7th District Most Targeted For Independent Expenditures
Swing State Project has been doing a phenomenal job of tracking spending across the country by independent groups, in addition to candidate spending. They created a chart showing the total spending and partisan leanings for every contested House race in the country. Here's the explanation:
Note that this does not include direct expenditures by party committees (like we saw the other day from the DCCC in NJ-05 & FL-18) or electioneering communications by 527's like Freedom's Crotch (the FEC's database is all but unnavigable).And here's what they found:
That's right. We were the most-targeted district in the country for independent expenditures. Remember that this doesn't include the candidates' own spending, the DCCC or NRCC, or even many 572 groups. Wow. And, as evidence of the excitement on the part of Democrats this year, a clear majority of that spending came in support of Mark Schauer or in opposition to Tim Walberg. After the election, I'd like to take some time to seriously look at where the money came from on both sides. Right now, I'm just shocked by the enormity of it all. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Walberg Making Fake Robo-Calls?
Via Blogging for Michigan:
Delta Twp.-Delta Township Democrats called on Congressman Tim Walberg and his supporters to immediately stop robo-calls that have gone out to voters that imply local Democratic Eaton County officials support Walberg. Several voters complained about receiving the calls on their home answering machines today.If anyone has more information, I'd love to hear more. If true, this strikes me as a desperate move. Walberg should be ashamed of himself. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Monday, November 03, 2008 Jackson Cit-Pat Endorses Schauer
Here's my Election Eve prediction: Jackson County is going to decide the outcome of the 7th Congressional District race. As predictions go, that's not too controversial. It's the county with the most people and it's the county that's basically evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. When the county's main daily endorses, it has the potential to be a big deal.
This weekend, the Jackson Citizen Patriot made its decision. You can tell they were a little torn over the decision, in the birthplace of the Republican Party. Nevertheless, I agree with the conclusion they reached. In their Sunday, November 2, 2008 issue, the Citizen Patriot endorsed Mark Schauer: Voters in the 7th Congressional District might express relief more than anything else at the end of the $6 million-plus campaign between Mark Schauer and Rep. Tim Walberg. Their scorched-earth battle of misinformation and even outright lies has not been worthy of two honorable men or the district they want to represent.The Citizen Patriot has always struck me as a moderate-to-conservative paper, though they've had some very good reporting this election cycle and last time. As Eric B. at Michigan Liberal notes, so close to Election Day, most people have probably made a decision. Even so, it doesn't hurt to add one more newspaper that says Mark Schauer is the right man for the job. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Pre-Election Round-Up
I think that this is interesting. Compared to this time last year-- when there was no election-- and this time in 2006, traffic to Walberg Watch is down, but not by all that much. Why is this interesting? Well, frankly, because I've fallen down on the job and fallen behind. Life got in the way. And even so, people keep visiting Walberg Watch. Thank you, everyone, and especially to everyone that has e-mailed me over the last few weeks.
Even though I've been a little quieter, I still absolutely believe that Mark Schauer is the right man for the job, and Tim Walberg absolutely has to go. I've simply run out of time to give everything the time it deserves, but here are some interesting last-minute items: ----- The Michigan Republican Party put out this advertisement: What's the problem? The photo of Mark Schauer slowly floating down the screen was stolen from a progressive blogger. According to Chris Gautz at the Citizen Patriot, two more photos were also stolen from the same blogger for use in direct mail pieces. That's just a low move. ----- Speaking of Chris Gautz, he'll be holding a liveblog tomorrow night following the results. I don't always agree with the conclusions he reaches, but it's worth checking out. Chris has a fun writing style and tells it as he sees it. And besides, I'll be away from a computer until about 9:30pm, so there's a chance Walberg Watch won't have anything exciting for a while. You've got to have somewhere to go. ----- There have been a lot of pre-Election Day "Walberg, Schauer in tight race" stories or "Candidates make final push" stories. If you're at Walberg Watch looking for more information, chances are you've already read one of them or you could write one yourself. Still, here's a small sample: Schauer talks jobs at local visit - Daily Telegram Candidates make final push as election nears - Jackson Citizen Patriot Campaign for Congress down to final moments - Battle Creek Enquirer ----- Former Congressman Nick Smith-- who served the district from 1993 to 2005-- endorsed Congressman Tim Walberg for reelection. It's not a huge surprise. His son, Brad Smith, had actually gotten the Club for Growth endorsement over Tim Walberg in 2004, and no one has ever said either Smith was anything other than conservative. I think I might also remember having seen Smith contribute to Walberg sometime in the last two years, though I'm not totally sure. Still, it's a significant endorsement, and worth reporting. ----- In mid-October, President George W. Bush was in Grand Rapids for a fundraising trip, and Congressman Tim Walberg was a major beneficiary. George W. Bush was here, helping Tim Walberg. I've got no further comment. ----- In case you're one of the many people every day that comes to Walberg Watch following a Google search for polling on the race, Pollster.com has a handy graph that shows the polling trend of the race. Sadly, there's been very little independent, public polling. ----- Remember to vote. Sure, you have to pay taxes and obey the laws in this country. But your right to vote makes up for all of those mild inconveniences. Bob Schieffer of CBS News said this at the conclusion of the third presidential debate: I'll leave you tonight with what my mother always said: Go vote now. It'll make you feel big and strong.That's right. If I've missed anything you think is important, leave it in the comments. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Endorsements, Fundraising, Mark Schauer, Republican Party, Tim Walberg Friday, October 31, 2008 Late-Night Blogging In Review
Whew!
So, all has not been well in Fitzy-land. I've been busy, I've been caught up in presidential campaign excitement, and, of course, somehow I managed to catch both a cold (a couple of weeks ago) and a "flu-like virus" (this week). Really, there have been some pretty miserable moments. But you don't care about that, you care about beating Tim Walberg! So I spent the last few days trying to catch up with the campaign-- that can be seen in the dozens of posts below, which I've just uploaded. Most of them are going to sink off of the page pretty quickly (or already have), so I want to give you a table of contents of sort. Here's everything I've been up to today. By the way, there's more coming tomorrow. This is just part one. Today's blogging: Predictions
Endorsements
As I said above, there's more coming tomorrow, especially in the "Debates" category. That's tomorrow. Honestly, I'm really tired right now. But I've got one last thing, for all of you progressive Democrats that need some motivating for the last week of the campaign. Watch this: The U.S. Senate Democratic caucus made that video last year in memory of Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MN), who was killed in a plane crash on October 25, 2002, along with his wife, his staff, and the flight crew. Wellstone was someone who you could count on to fight for you, and I think the video captures that. Regardless of whether you agree with his politics, I think most would agree that if we had more leaders who were that passionate about helping people, we'd be better off. (By the way, Senator Schauer-- I know that you're fairly moderate and this is a moderate district, but if you win on November 4th, I'll be measuring you against the Wellstone standard.) Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Paul Wellstone, Tim Walberg Walberg: Iraq Did Have WMD
Um... Congressman Walberg?
Transcript Walberg: Did not Saddam Hussein have the weapons of mass destruction?Hm. So, Saddam Hussein did have weapons of mass destruction, it's just that they're hidden so well that even after five years, we haven't found any. The Iraqi government was able to hide them quickly, in the midst of preparations for an invasion, without leaving any traces or having any witnesses that were able to give credible accounts to the Americans searching for the weapons. Right. I'm not an expert on this, but thankfully, there are some people that have spent a lot of time on this. For instance, the Iraq Survey Group, which was convened by coalition governments specifically to search for stockpiles or evidence of stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction, had this to say: The former Regime had no formal written strategy or plan for the revival of WMD after sanctions. Neither was there an identifiable group of WMD policy makers or planners separate from Saddam. Instead, his lieutenants understood WMD revival was his goal from their long association with Saddam and his infrequent, but firm, verbal comments and directions to them. and this: ISG has not found evidence that Saddam Husayn possessed WMD stocks in 2003, but the available evidence from its investigation—including detainee interviews and document exploitation—leaves open the possibility that some weapons existed in Iraq although not of a militarily significant capability. Several senior officers asserted that if Saddam had WMD available when the 2003 war began, he would have used them to avoid being overrun by Coalition forces.In other words, Saddam Hussein really, really wanted weapons of mass destruction, liked to brag about them, but didn't actually have any. He was a deluded, aging dictator, not a serious threat. And what about Tim Walberg's idea that the weapons might have been moved or buried? In an addendum to the final report, it was concluded that it was possible, but very unlikely. Again, I have to ask, if there were these massive stockpiles, how is it that no one witnessed their movements across the border? I don't know, Congressman Walberg, this is straying into conspiracy-theory land. Next you're going to tell me that black helicopters from the UN are out to get you. But wait, Congressman Walberg said that the "Hamilton Commission" found out that the weapons were buried in the desert. So he's right... right? No. He's referring to the Iraq Study Group (not to be confused with the Iraq Survey Group above), which was a bipartisan panel, chaired by Lee Hamilton (a Democrat) and James Baker (a Republican), and which released its final report in December of 2006. Except, they weren't tasked with investigating weapons of mass destruction. They were instead asked to find a path out of the mess we had created in Iraq. In fact, in their final report, the phrase "weapons of mass destruction" only appears once, in the biography of one of the commission members. As far as I can tell, the report never discusses the truth behind claims about weapons stockpiles, nor does it address what might have happened to those stockpiles, if they had existed. Frankly, I haven't got any idea what Walberg is referring to. If anyone can enlighten me, I'll gladly post an update. It's possible-- possible-- that Tim Walberg could be right, and a couple of dozen of Iraqi nuclear bombs are hidden in the desert, or in Syria, or something like that. Maybe, in some crazy, unbelievable way, that all managed to happen without us ever finding any evidence. Hey, anything can happen. But that's not what Tim Walberg said. He didn't say, "Well, who knows, maybe it's possible that they were there!" No. He was sure that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. He mocked Mark Schauer for denying that known fact. It was ridiculous to suggest that Saddam Hussein didn't have weapons of mass destruction, and everyone knows that they're just hidden really well. And yet, there's absolutely no evidence to support that. It's all conjecture and wishful thinking. When presented with evidence that the weapons of mass destruction weren't there, he continues on, living in his fantasy world. We should be used to that by now. It's the same Walberg fantasy world where Iraq is as safe as Detroit, the Chinese are drilling off of the coast of Florida, Hurricane Katrina didn't cause any damage, Iraq was behind September 11, and global climate change isn't real. This isn't funny anymore. Labels: 2008 Election, Debates, Iraq, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Schauer's Closing Ad
Here's Mark Schauer's "closing argument," as articulated via television advertisement:
They released the ad on October 27, 2008, meaning it'll end up running for at most a week, and will probably be the last Schauer ad they see. I think it accomplishes a lot of things. First, starting off by panning across a large group of unemployed workers has a certain populist element in a year that I think populism is a catchy message. There's a sense that these people losing their jobs was an injustice, and that Mark Schauer is on their side-- and on your side, if the same thing happens to you. Second, it repeats the same message Schauer has stuck to for the entire campaign: he'll fight unfair trade agreements and fight for your jobs, while Tim Walberg thinks outsourcing is okay and won't fight for you. He's not trying some last-minute stunt or desperately changing messages. The Schauer campaign is comfortable with where they're at and think that it's working. Third, everything about the ad, from the phrasing of Schauer's script to the music in the background implies "hope," which, as Barack Obama has shown, is popular this year. Schauer won't just fight the special interests or whatever. He'll "get up every day and work hard to get people back to work." That's a nice message. And even so, it's couched in a certain degree of pragmatism-- the "I can't promise you that I can turn our economy around overnight" part. This is still a lean-conservative and lean-Republican district, and people won't vote for a Democrat they think is making ridiculously liberal assertions and promising to fix the world. Mark Schauer is promising to work hard, and will help make things better. Not perfect, but better. I think this is his strongest ad. But then again, I'm a biased observer. What did you think? Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Economy, Issues, Mark Schauer Walberg's Closing Ad
The Walberg campaign released what may be their final television advertisement for the season. For the first time since their first television ad, it's positive.
I don't have much commentary on this one. Maybe people will believe the "It's all lies!" message, but I think people are smart enough to know that he's been running a lot of negative ads, too, and some of those aren't entirely in line with the facts. (Anyone remember the "Schauer will give our children pornography" ad?) It's a little late to play yourself up as the poor, misunderstood guy who's getting attacked from all sides. I'm also vaguely reminded of this ad, from Governor Michael Dukakis in 1988: We all remember the stunningly successful Dukakis Administration, right? My point is, sometimes going on camera and saying, "They're lying about me!" comes across as whining, and doesn't sit well with people. Maybe it'll work for Tim Walberg, but it didn't do anything to help Dukakis as he dropped back in the polls. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Tim Walberg Walberg Ad: They're Lying About Me!
Although it's not on Tim Walberg's rarely-updated YouTube page, on October 20, Chris Gautz brought us one of the Walberg campaign's latest television ads:
Or, the short version: "Mark Schauer is lying!" I don't know how effective this will be. Rather than countering with actual rebuttals to Schauer's attacks, he's just issuing a blanket "He's lying!" as if that's enough. I don't know if it is. Of course, Chris Gautz, who's quoted in the ad, notes: I guess he decided to take a position-- though, it's not the position he's held before. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Issues, Mark Schauer, Social Security, Tim Walberg Schauer Ad: Walberg and Outsourcing
On October 19, 2008, the Schauer campaign released this television advertisement:
Following the standard pattern of negative-then-positive, I actually think this is a really good ad. Regardless of the validity of the economics behind outsourcing, almost everyone in Michigan knows someone who has a story about losing a job because the business moved operations elsewhere. And when Walberg said that outsourcing was "necessary and good," it was incredibly tone-deaf. But by closing on a positive note-- with a hopeful message and a legitimate Mark Schauer success story, Transpharm-- it casts Schauer as the good guy, on "our side." I'm not a big fan of negative advertising, but when you squeeze in some positive messaging, their value (to me, at least) increases. That's my take, anyway. What did you think? Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Schauer Ad: Walberg "Bought And Paid For"
On October 8th, 2008, the Schauer campaign released this ad:
I'll be honest, I'm not crazy about this one. Using an actor's voice to fill in for Walberg in an attack ad just seems unnecessary to me. That said, this is an issue I've criticized Walberg on countless times, and rightly so. He's been a reliable voice for the Club for Growth in Congress (to the detriment of his constituents). And, yeah, as Eric at Michigan Liberal notes, it's absolutely fair game to use this quote. Even so, I'd be surprised if this was the ad that resonated with voters. People care less about who contributed to whom and more about issues that affect them. A million dollars is a lot, but if you don't already know something about the Club for Growth, it's not going to mean much to you. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Club for Growth, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Walberg Attacks... Michael Moore?
On October 9th, 2008, the Walberg campaign released this television ad:
Contrasting it to their latest ad on the economy, the Schauer campaign had this to say: It's an interesting contrast. Schauer is focusing on the economy and how the incumbent's policies and supporters are making things worse, whereas Walberg's ad focuses on... Michael Moore.More seriously, though, what about the substance of the ad? Yes, Michael Moore does support Mark Schauer, and has contributed to him. Lots of people support Schauer, and that in and of itself shouldn't be a bad thing. It's not like Schauer's been flaunting Moore's endorsement. The tax increase attacks have been common throughout the campaign, and don't need to be addressed in this post. But the thing about giving drivers' licenses to illegal immigrants has been used less. Is there substance to that attack? Well, it turns out, yes and no. Yes, because Senator Schauer was against a provision that would prevent illegal immigrants from getting drivers' licenses, and no, because on the substance of the issue, Mark Schauer was right. Chris Gautz brings us the statement of then-state Representative Schauer when he cast his vote: "Mr. Speaker and members of the House:In other words, complicated problems require thoughtful solutions, not panicked moves without considering the consequences. It's easy to make bold pronouncements like, "Illegal immigrants shouldn't get drivers' licenses!" It's much harder to think through the tough situation that would create for everyone. Mark Schauer brings with him a thoughtful point of view. Tim Walberg brings only a rigid, out-of-touch ideology. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Illegal Immigration, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg AFSCME Ad: "Walberg For Wall Street"
YouTube user SeventhDem uploaded this advertisement on October 10, 2008. It's from the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, or AFSCME.
I'm not going to lie, I was cringing all the way through this. It would have been fine if it wasn't for the cartoon Wall Street executives popping up all the time. Seriously, that's as bad as "Sour for Schauer." Come on, guys, you're embarrassing our side! I think it's got the potential to be a fairly effective attack ad-- Wall Street isn't popular right now-- but it loses everything with the cartoons. Sorry, I just don't think it works. That's my shallow take on it. What did you think? Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, AFSCME, Issues, Taxes, Tim Walberg More From the DCCC
YouTube user SeventhDem (a phenomenal resource) uploaded this advertisement from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on October 22, 2008:
Ouch. We've talked about the sales tax thing before (though it's good to see them hitting him on it again), but I think this is probably one of the most pointed ads the DCCC has released. Notably, you come away from it remembering two parts. First, there's the man with the line, "What nut would support that?" I think the DCCC is hiring better writers-- it's certainly more memorable than "Sour on Schauer," and they only had to say it once. But the part that really leaves a mark is the end. While they phrase it as a question, it's clear what they want you to think: Tim Walberg both doesn't get it AND doesn't care. It paints him as out-of-touch with everyday needs and unconcerned with what you're going through. And, frankly, while the ad doesn't tell a balanced story on Walberg's sales tax, the closing of the ad is very accurate. Walberg didn't go to Washington to represent us, he went there to push a rigid, ideological agenda. The far-right conservatism he's embraced is one that doesn't have room for compassion or helping those in need-- at least, not when it comes to the federal government. Walberg doesn't realize that people are hurting, and when government is one of the tools in your toolbox, it's irresponsible not to use it. Use it carefully, sure. But you've got to use it. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, DCCC, Issues, National Sales Tax, Tim Walberg HCAN Increases Ad Buy In Response To Walberg
Do you remember this ad from Health Care America NOW?
On October 20, the Jackson Citizen Patriot reported: U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg's campaign is demanding that a television advertisement, which they called ``blatantly false,'' be pulled from the airwaves.Legal action? I knew it was an effective ad, but apparently it hit a really sour note with the Walberg people. The short version of their argument is that Walberg doesn't support letting insurance companies make the rules, but instead supports letting inter-state competition. As I said before, this doesn't let the insurance companies make the rules, but it does give them a bunch of options for which they want to follow, including giving them the option of rejecting coverage of pre-existing conditions. As far as legal action, I'm not quite sure what action they could take and actually expect anyone to take them seriously. But they did get a response out of Health Care for America NOW. From a press release: LANSING, MI -- Today, Health Care for America Now (HCAN) responded to Congressman Tim Walberg's threat to sue over a television ad by extending its television ad buy in Michigan and running a new print advertisement in the local weekly. HCAN is putting its hard-hitting ad – "Fighter" - back on the air in Congressman Walberg's district for three additional days and has taken out a full-page ad in the Tecumseh Herald asking "What Is Walberg Hiding?" You can see the ad they put in the Tecumseh Herald here. I'm glad to see that Health Care for America NOW isn't letting up on this. On the substance of issues, Tim Walberg is wrong, and it has the added benefit of being bad politics. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Health Care, Issues, Tim Walberg Ann Arbor News Endorses Schauer
Although Ann Arbor isn't in the 7th District, the Ann Arbor News still serves as the main newspaper for western Washtenaw County, a vote-rich battleground for this year's congressional race. And although Washtenaw County is solidly Democratic, thanks to Ann Arbor, the Ann Arbor News itself is a rather conservative paper. For instance, in 2004, they endorsed President George W. Bush (R), while Senator John Kerry went on to carry the county 63-35.
In 2006, the newspaper chose not to endorse between Renier and Walberg, judging Walberg too radical and Renier too, well, incompetent. Here's what they said about Walberg last time: Walberg's entrenched conservative stances on virtually every issue, from abortion to Iraq, offer no room for compromise - and that ideological rigidity should have no place in Congress. His unwillingness to engage in the necessary give and take of governance makes him an untenable choice.This year, it's different. In their October 24, 2008 issue, the Ann Arbor News endorsed state Senator Mark Schauer over Congressman Tim Walberg: You could tell that it hurt them to do that. Even so, the conservative Ann Arbor News endorsed the Democratic nominee in the 7th District race. That's a big deal. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg LSJ Endorses Schauer
The Lansing State Journal is a great resource for news on state government and the Lansing area, including Eaton County. They've watched Mark Schauer in Lansing up-close, and they've watched as Tim Walberg embarrasses his district in Washington. On Saturday, October 25, 2008, the Lansing State Journal endorsed Mark Schauer:
Voters in Michigan's 7th Congressional District have watched one of the nation's highest profile contests between incumbent Republican Tim Walberg and Democrat Mark Schauer.They also have a fairly decent response to Walberg's attacks on taxes: You can read the whole piece (and the angry comments) here. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Battle Creek Enquirer Endorses Schauer
It's not a huge surprise... From what I hear about Battle Creek's relationship with Mark Schauer, there would probably be rioting if they didn't do this. Nevertheless, it's important to note that the Battle Creek Enquirer endorsed state Senator Mark Schauer over Congressman Tim Walberg in the October 24, 2008 issue:
When it comes to the 7th Congressional District race, we endorse Democrat MARK SCHAUER over first-term incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg.It's a good endorsement, and you can read the whole thing here. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Detroit Free Press Endorses Schauer
Like the Detroit News, the Detroit Free Press isn't a 7th District newspaper and isn't all that widely read in the district, compared to local dailies. But it does help shape opinion in the state, and an endorsement does carry weight-- in particular, with the state and national groups that are looking to handicap races in Michigan. The Free Press tends to be more left-leaning than the conservative News, but it's also the most-read newspaper in Michigan.
In the October 24, 2008, issue, the Free Press discussed the historically low grade of challengers in Michigan's congressional races, and then highlighted and endorsed Mark Schauer and Gary Peters as bucking that trend. No matter what shape the state is in or how much Michigan voters gripe about Washington, they have a pattern of retaining their representatives in Congress. It's pretty tough to knock off an incumbent on these peninsulas. The result is challengers who are sometimes unqualified, usually underfinanced, and generally unable to offer assets equivalent to the experience and seniority that matter so much in the Washington power structure.and You can read the whole endorsement here. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Adrian Daily Telegram Endorses Walberg
It's not a huge surprise, since the paper leans right anyway, it's the only daily newspaper in Lenawee County, and it's endorsed Tim Walberg in the past. Nevertheless, it's worth mentioning that Adrian's Daily Telegram endorsed Congressman Tim Walberg in it's October 24, 2008 issue:
In Michigan’s 7th Congressional District race between Tim Walberg and Mark Schauer, playing up the candidates’ differing views on TV has been like shooting fish in a barrel. In real life, however, the actions of Rep. Walberg in Washington have turned out to be consistent and practical, and that is why voters should re-elect Walberg on Nov. 4.The editorial commends Walberg for what he's done in Congress (including many things I've criticized him for-- and I stand by all of my criticism), and then proceeds to call Mark Schauer a "big-government liberal." Yeah. If you're interested, you can read the whole editorial. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Detroit News Endorses Walberg
The Detroit News isn't a 7th District newspaper, but like it's rival the Free Press, it's still read throughout the state. An endorsement by the paper means less to voters than, say, the local dailies that cover the district, but more to the groups that are handicapping the race, particularly those from a conservative perspective. I discussed all of this in the post on the Free Press endorsement.
In 2006, the News refused to endorse Tim Walberg, judging him too "extreme," and opting for the comparatively safe Libertarian Robert Hutchinson. This time around, they've judged Walberg to be a standard Bush Republican-- which, in the eyes of the Detroit News, is a good thing. They've endorsed Congressman Tim Walberg for re-election. Meh. You can't win 'em all. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Walberg... Spells His Own Name Wrong?
Every now and then, a politician does something stupid that doesn't actually matter, but makes us all feel better about ourselves. When Barack Obama accidentally said he had visited "fifty-seven states," he didn't actually mean it. He was tired and he misspoke.
But it's fun to make fun of that anyway, just like it's fun to make fun of a minor mistake made by Congressman Tim Walberg, which the Schauer campaign jumped on, while noting a previous mistake: WALBERG SPELLS OWN NAME WRONG(Emphasis added.) And before anyone says anything, it wasn't just some staffer mis-typing something. This was a handwritten fundraising appeal which was passed on to the Schauer campaign. Shown below, Walberg spells his name two different ways:  and  Now, the actual story here is the panicked, last-minute fundraising appeal for "anything you can send," but that's not nearly as much fun as the spelling error. Then again, I have a tough to spell last name too, so I understand, Congressman Walberg. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Tim Walberg's Pre-General Fundraising
On October 23, 2008, Walberg for Congress filed the Pre-General report with the Federal Election Commission. It covers the period from October 1 to October 15.
In the fifteen-day period, Walberg raised $157,766.82. Of that, $89,621.82 came from individual donors, or about 57 percent. Included in that is $5,000 from the Republican National Committee. This brought his total fundraising for the cycle up to that point to $1,699,030.53. In the same period, Walberg spent $437,012.16. This included a $42,000 mailing and about $260,000 spent on "ads." At the close of the period, Walberg had $412,389.78 cash-on-hand. This is just 56 percent of Schauer's cash-on-hand. Schauer entered the final portion of the campaign with nearly twice as much money as Walberg. The Jackson Citizen Patriot's Chris Gautz looked at some notable contributors to the Walberg campaign during this period. It's interesting reading. Although significantly more than former Congressman Nick Smith's mere $125,506 raised in his 2002 reelection campaign and nearly twice former Congressman Joe Schwarz's $891,845 in 2004, Walberg only slightly outraised Schwarz's $1,608,883 for the 2006 Republican primary. Walberg's fundraising appears consistent with a Republican in a tough race, unlike the extraordinary records set by Schauer. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Tim Walberg Mark Schauer's Pre-General Fundraising
On October 23, 2008, Schauer for Congress filed the Pre-General report with the Federal Election Commission. It covers the period from October 1 to October 15.
In the fifteen-day period covered by the report, Mark Schauer raised $223,453.73, plus almost $3,000 transferred from the joint committee with 9th District Democrat Gary Peters. Of the contributions he received, $164,861.37 came from individual donors, or about 74 percent. The Schauer campaign raised a total of $2,016,586.85 for the entire cycle up to that date. The Schauer for Congress committee also spent $347,638.14 in that period, including a $101,409.82 media buy and a $100,000.00 transfer to the Michigan Democratic Party. As a result of these expenditures, the Schauer campaign's cash-on-hand as of October 15 was $734,888.42. Chris Gautz at the Jackson Citizen Patriot picked out some significant contributors during this filing period. It's interesting reading. The total dollar amount raised for every Democratic nominee in the 7th District since the 2002 cycle (when the current boundaries were adopted) and prior to 2008 is $115,718. That is, the total amount of money raised for the 2002, 2004, and 2006 nominees was $115,718. In 15 days, Mark Schauer raised almost twice that, and for the whole cycle, has raised raised that more than 17 times over. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer Tim Walberg's Third Quarter Fundraising
On October 15, 2008, Tim Walberg's campaign filed their third quarter fundraising report with the Federal Elections Commission. It covers the period from July 1, 2008 to September 30, 2008.
In this quarter, Walberg raised $332,918.63, with $183,672.93, or about 55 percent, coming from individual donors. The rest came from political action committees or some organ of the Republican Party. In the same quarter, Walberg spent $496,420.85, slightly more than half of all expenditures in the cycle up to that point. Many of the more expensive purchases are for "advertising" or "production," reflecting the start of serious general election campaigning. At the end of the quarter, Walberg had $691,635.12 cash-on-hand. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Tim Walberg Mark Schauer's Third Quarter Fundraising
On October 15, 2008, the Schauer for Congress campaign filed their third quarter fundraising report with the Federal Elections Commission. It covers the period from July 1, 2008 to September 30, 2008.
In this quarter, Schauer raised $458,652.03, with $305,534.39 coming from individual donors, or about 67 percent. The rest came from political action committees or other, similar groups. For the entire election cycle up to the end of September, Schauer raised $1,790,209.25. In the same quarter, Schauer spent $531,189.52. This accounts for more than half of all their spending in this election cycle, including large "media production" costs-- presumably, television ads-- reflecting the start of the general election period. The campaign finished the quarter with $856,148.96 cash-on-hand. This quarter is the fifth straight quarter in which Mark Schauer has out-raised Tim Walberg. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer Fox News: Walberg Will Lose
Ouch. It's got to hurt when Fox News, always willing to put a more optimistic spin on things for Republicans, says Tim Walberg will lose:
MI 7: Rep. Tim Walberg (R) is one of the most-endangered Republicans this cycle in a contest against Mark Schauer. Expect a Democratic win. Especially after McCain pulled out of Michigan.This won't mean a thing on Election Day, however. You've still got to get out there and help get out the vote for Mark Schauer. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Larry Sabato: Schauer Will Win
(Thanks to the multiple people that e-mailed me about this.)
On his "Crystal Ball" website, Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, published his "next-to-last" predictions for Election Day 2008. They're pretty good for the Democrats all around, but here's the part that matters to me the most:  I don't know if you can see it on there, but "MI-07 (Walberg)" is under the "Democratic Pick-up" column. Yeah, it's just one prediction, and it won't matter at all in five days. But it's good to see anyway.Mind you, this is no time to get overconfident. Mark Schauer is going to need everyone's help to get out the vote. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg US News & World Report: GOP Thinks Walberg Will Lose
This showed up all over the internet, but is definitely worth repeating here. A Republican memo leaked to U.S. News & World Report had the expected losses for the GOP on Election Day:
The document provided to Whispers is no gag: It comes from one of the key House GOP vote counters. The source called it a "death list." The tally shows several different ratings of 66 House Republicans in difficult races or open seats held by retiring Republicans. "Rating 1" finds 10 Republicans "likely gone." Those districts are New York 13, Alaska, Arizona 1, Virginia 11, New York 25, Illinois 11, Florida 24, Michigan 7, Nevada 3, and North Carolina 8.(Emphasis added.) Ouch. Congressman Walberg, your party says you're going to lose! Mind you, now isn't the time to be overconfident. Go sign up to volunteer to get out the vote! Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Tim Walberg DCCC Poll: Schauer 43, Walberg 35
Catching up... -- Fitzy
For the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Benenson Strategy Group conducted a poll over October 6 and 7, 2008. With a margin of error of 4.9 percent, here's what they found: Mark Schauer (D) - 43 Tim Walberg (R-inc.) - 35 The press release didn't release details like sample size or, for that matter, if they asked any other questions, and I'm mentioning this late enough that I feel silly asking for those details now. Suffice it to say, this seems more or less in line with the poll the Schauer campaign released at about the same time. Right now, I'm inclined to believe that both polls are accurate, and Schauer is leading by a respectable margin, with a lot of undecideds. Why? It's been weeks, and the Walberg folks haven't released their own counter-poll. If they had better-looking data than this, you'd better believe they'd release it. Labels: 2008 Election, DCCC, Mark Schauer, Poll, Tim Walberg Thursday, October 16, 2008 19 Days Out
I've been sick and extremely busy in my non-Walberg Watch life. These things combined make blogging a low priority. But I'm back now, hopefully more consistently, for the next 19 days.
I'm going to have substantive posts coming up soon, but for the moment, I'm going to leave you with this: There are 19 days left between now and Election Day. In that time, a single volunteer with Mark Schauer's campaign could easily make 400 phone calls or 200 doors volunteering just twice a week for two hours each time. Those are very reasonable numbers for just one person, working at a reasonable pace. If you can't give up two hours of your time, you can write a letter to the editor, detailing why Mark Schauer is the right choice for Michigan's 7th District. You can tell your friends and neighbors about the irresponsible votes cast by Tim Walberg. You can spend five minutes calling up your college-age child to make sure he or she has gotten an absentee ballot. There's a lot of work to be done between now and Election Day, and the Get Out The Vote effort is going to be an enormous challenge, especially in a district as large as Michigan's 7th District. It's not about chipping in $20 or putting a bumper sticker on your car anymore. We've reachd the serious part of the campaign. It's up to you. What are you going to do to help elect Mark Schauer? Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Thursday, October 09, 2008 Walberg DID Call Social Security "Socialism"!
(Thanks to the reader who e-mailed me about this.)
Some regular readers of this blog and of Chris Gautz's work at the Jackson Citizen Patriot website remember this advertisement put out by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee: Right from the start, the ad cites an article in the Daily Telegram from 2004 in which Walberg calls Social Security "socialism." It's certainly not a good quote for Walberg-- as the ad notes, a lot of people rely on Social Security, and the negative connotation "socialism" carries is likely to offend a lot of people. Chris Gautz was doubtful about the accuracy of the quote, mainly because, as a former employee of the Telegram, he had thought he would remember a quote that explosive. Although I probably would have read that article in 2004, my memory for these sorts of things is awful, so I deferred judgment to a later date. But thanks to the magic of the internet and the wonders of active readers, Chris brought us the answer: Walberg did call Social Security "socialism"! Here's the text of the article: ADRIAN -- Tuesday's debate between Republicans and Democrats running for the 7th District Congressional seat allowed candidates to inform the public about their views, but led to little debate.So, yes, now-Congressman Tim Walberg called Social Security "socialism" in 2004. Labels: 2004 Election, 2008 Election, Advertising, DCCC, Drew Walker, Issues, Social Security, Tim Walberg Walberg For Privatizing Social Security Before He Was Against It Even Though He's For It
At last night's debate in Adrian, Congressman Tim Walberg and state Senator Mark Schauer talked about privatizing Social Security. Here's what happened, via the Jackson Citizen Patriot's Chris Gautz:
and Holly Klaft: And, finally, the Schauer campaign has this quote: "I have never taken a position to privatize Social Security."Now, I haven't gotten my hands on any audio from the debate (yet), so I can't give you the unfiltered exchange. But let's suppose that this is all that happened. For starters, when it says: He has said he would support giving future workers the option of putting part of their payroll taxes in personal accounts.Well, Congressman Walberg, that is privatization of Social Security. At least, that's the sort of plan generally accepted as privatizing Social Security. People get into trouble by relying on Wikipedia too much, but the article on this debate, while not the best, has a decent explanation of what "personal accounts" means-- namely, that individuals could take money they pay into the Social Security system and invest it in stocks and bonds. So, Congressman Walberg, when this happened: And this: "I have never taken a position to privatize Social Security."Well, you weren't exactly being honest. And then this: That's basically true. No one's really been pushing that idea lately. It basically died in 2005, due to lack of support and a lack of political capital for President Bush. But that didn't stop Tim Walberg from supporting it in 2006, so much so that he put it on his website: Tim supports President Bush’s efforts to expand our ownership society by allowing younger workers to voluntarily invest a portion of their payroll taxes and allowing the money to be secured in personal investment accounts.And in 2004, he also put on his website: Tim Walberg believes Social Security benefits must be protected and younger workers should have the option of investing a portion of their payroll taxes in stocks, bonds, or money market funds. Under this reform, younger workers will earn a higher rate of return and likely retire with far more funds than under the current system.Those claims are a little dubious, but that's beside the point-- in 2004 and 2006, Walberg was clearly on the record as supporting privatizing Social Security. And then, in September, from the Detroit News: Walberg, R-Tipton, supports changing the program so younger workers could choose to invest a portion of their Social Security money in private investment accounts.And this from the Citizen Patriot the next day: My point, of course, is to say that yes, Congressman Walberg, you do support privatizing Social Security. You didn't call it that, but Holly Klaft equated your plan with privatization, and we didn't hear any calls for a retraction. And just a few days ago, Chris Gautz made the same connection between "privatization" and the Walberg plan: Also in the ad, it points out Walberg's support of "privatization," which is another way of saying he supports giving future workers the option of saving part of their payroll taxes in personal accounts. Of course those accounts could be subject to the whims of the market, and especially this week, might not be the most popular idea.So, Congressman, when you said: "I have never taken a position to privatize Social Security."well, that was just a lie. You have taken a position in favor of privatizing Social Security. The only thing you haven't done is used the magical word "privatize." Needless to say, the Schauer campaign is jumping on this (and rightly so): Labels: 2008 Election, Debates, Issues, Mark Schauer, Social Security, Tim Walberg Health Care for America NOW Launches Ad Against Walberg
The fun part about living in a district with lots of national attention is that you get to learn all about political groups you'd never heard of before.
The Hill reports: It will be interesting to see the kind of impact they might have on the campaign. Personally, I'd like to see all candidates talk about health care more, and, to his credit, it's something Mark Schauer rarely fails to mention. With Health Care for America NOW, all I can hope is that the "telephone campaigning" doesn't include robocalls. Please, nobody likes those. Here's the television ad they're running against Tim Walberg: Ouch. Maybe I'm just a receptive audience, but I'd say that it's a pretty effective ad. The bill they mention is HR 4460, the "Health Care Choice Act of 2007," of which Tim Walberg is a cosponsor. It was introduced but never made it out of committee, and for a good reason. The bill would allow health insurance companies to sell insurance across state lines, potentially opening you up to cheaper options, should you decide to purchase health insurance on your own. However, by allowing health insurance companies to designate a "primary" state and making them exempt from the laws of all other "secondary" states in which they sell, that would mean insurers could choose as a "primary" state somewhere that, say, doesn't have a law requiring that they cover pre-existing conditions. The ad says it would let the insurance companies "make the rules," and that's not quite true. It's more that it would let the insurance companies pick and choose which combination of rules they want to follow. (Thanks to Wikipedia and this blog for guiding me in the right direction.) Anyway, that's the policy behind the ad. Now, back to the politics. In addition to the television ad, Congressman Walberg is featured on a website they launched, WhichSideAreTheyOn.com. Walberg's page, with a side-by-side comparison to Mark Schauer, leaves the reader with one clear conclusion-- Tim Walberg's not on your side. They also include a .pdf file with a good summary of Walberg's record on health care. It's certainly a must-read for anyone planning to talk with friends or relatives, and should be added to the talking points for Schauer volunteers going door-to-door. Labels: 110th Congress, 2008 Election, Advertising, Health Care, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg NRCC Releases Attack Ad
Not content to just fund Tim Walberg's attack ads, on October 7, 2008, the National Republican Congressional Committee released an attack ad of its own against Mark Schauer:
As the always-observant Chris Gautz points out, there's more than one side to the kicked-off-committee story: Maybe I'm just a partisan Democrat, but I remember thinking at the time that it seemed like Senator McManus had other motives than just encouraging good attendance. But really, that line of attack strikes me as too inside-baseball to resonate with voters. When people are worried about jobs and losing their homes, "Mark Schauer is a troublemaker who got kicked off his committee" doesn't seem like it'll matter all that much to me. You know, I can even see it going further the other way, too-- John McCain's popularity was partly from his "maverick" image, and getting kicked off your committee is one way to show your independence from the status quo. Maybe Tim Walberg should have tried harder to get kicked off of a committee... But now I'm just getting silly. It's a creative ad, but I don't think it'll do anything other than reinforce the "largest tax increase" narrative. But if Mark Schauer's internal polling is to be believed, that's a narrative that's just not working. Schauer's taking the lead and is more trusted on taxes than Tim Walberg. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Issues, Mark Schauer, NRCC, Taxes, Tim Walberg The State of the Race From Susan Demas
A friend pointed me in the direction of an article by Susan Demas in the Lansing City Pulse, which more or less describes the 7th District race up to this point. Although she leaves out the fun details you get by reading Walberg Watch, it's a pretty good description of the state of the race, including the history behind it from 2006. If you're just joining us now, or have friends or relatives who don't know much about what's going on, it's a good starting point.
The short version of the article is that Tim Walberg has a lot of built-in advantages from his district map and is a good campaigner, but Mark Schauer is also an exceptional campaigner, and has lots and lots of money. Also, if Joe Schwarz were still in Congress, he'd be there for the rest of his life and no one would complain. I've had some differences with Susan Demas (which is healthy), and, while I generally focus on the articles she writes that are critical of Tim Walberg, she's also had not so kind things to say about Mark Schauer and the progressive blogosphere. Sometimes, I've been offended. Sometimes, she's much more confrontational than I would be. Sometimes, I've walked away in disgust and frustration. But all of that is okay. She's filling her role, and we're filling our roles. This is how politics works. Susan Demas is a good journalist, which makes her worth paying close attention to, even when she's wrong. Go read her City Pulse article. It's a good read and it paints an optimistic picture for Mark Schauer. But more than that, it gives a good overview of the race from a solid reporter. Before you get too pessimistic or too confident, you need a good review of the state of the race to bring you back to reality. Right. That was entirely too much praise for this blog. I've got to get back to bashing Tim Walberg. Labels: 2008 Election, Journalism, Mark Schauer, Susan Demas, Tim Walberg Wednesday, October 08, 2008 Romney To The Rescue?
From the Lansing State Journal:
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will be joining Congressman Tim Walberg on the campaign trail Wednesday.Ah, Mitt Romney. I really don't have much to say-- the former governor hasn't done much of anything to bother me lately, and he's been basically forgotten by everyone amidst the general election campaign. I will say, however, that appearing at a $100-per-person fundraiser hardly qualifies as "the campaign trail." I hope former Governor Romney enjoyed his return to Michigan, and I hope for his sake that his 2012 presidential campaign is going well. It's just too bad Walberg couldn't get the 2008 nominee. Labels: 2008 Election, 2012 Speculation, Mitt Romney, Tim Walberg Tuesday, October 07, 2008 Schauer Internal: Schauer 46 Walberg 36
Here I was, thinking Republican endorsements and tonight's Siena Heights University candidate forum would be the only excitement. The Schauer campaign released a new poll:
and “Today, by a 28-point margin voters are more likely to blame unfair trade policies than taxes for Michigan’s economic situation, and across the board they favor Schauer on every economic issue,” said pollster Andrew Myers. “Make no mistake, this political environment is becoming dangerous for any Republican incumbent, particularly one whose connection to voters here is as tenuous as Walberg’s.” Once again, it was through Myers Research & Strategic Services. It was conducted October 5 and 6, surveying 500 "likely voters." The partisan breakdown was 36 percent Democratic, 33 percent Republican, and 31 percent independent. The margin of error is 4.38 percent with a 95 percent confidence level. Here are the reported results (Sept. 23-24 results in parentheses, where available): Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg - Independents Only Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg - Lansing Media Market Only Trust On Taxes Generic Congressional Ballot Barack Obama vs. John McCain Walberg Job Performance There's lots of good stuff in there for Mark Schauer. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Poll, Taxes, Tim Walberg Republicans For Schauer
It never hurts to be bipartisan, and it definitely never hurts for the other guy's base to be divided.
Luckily for Mark Schauer, both of these are true. The Schauer for Congress campaign just sent out a press release announcing the "Republicans for Schauer"-- prominent Republicans from around the district and in the state government who have come out either in recent weeks or today and endorsed Senator Schauer over Tim Walberg. BATTLE CREEK—Today several prominent Republicans announced their support for state Senator Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) over incumbent Congressman Tim Walberg, citing Schauer's ability to work across the aisle to get things done.Here are the Republicans for Schauer named in the announcement:
This, of course, brings the obvious question: Are you a Republican? Are you rejecting Tim Walberg's closed-mindedness and supporting Mark Schauer? If you have Republican friends who aren't crazy about Tim Walberg, you might want to let them know that Joe Schwarz, David Stimpson, and the Republicans that worked with Mark Schauer every day in state government have decided to support Schauer. All of these people have met and know Tim Walberg. They still picked Schauer. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Moderate Republicans, Republican Party, Tim Walberg Monday, October 06, 2008 Last Chance To Register
I'm hoping that everyone reading Walberg Watch is registered to vote... But if not, today is your last chance.
This has been going around on the internet, and I think it's worth including here: If you're not registered, go to the Michigan Secretary of State for more information. Seriously, this is important. Register to vote. You're almost out of time. Labels: 2008 Election Quick Post
I just wanted to make sure you all knew I was still here. I'll have more later, but a couple of quick items:
- Mark Schauer was endorsed by People for the American Way, and is now the beneficiary of a fundraising competition. If you've been thinking about contributing to Schauer's campaign, consider contributing with them, showing your support for activists nationwide to see. - There's been some excitement in presidential politics. Just as a reminder, here's what Barack Obama has been doing to support Mark Schauer:    ... And here's what John McCain has been doing to support Tim Walberg:LANSING, Mich.-- Republican John McCain's decision to halt his Michigan campaign has left a hole in state GOP efforts and uncertainty hanging over the re-election chances of two congressmen.I'll probably write more about this later. What else is happening today? Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Saturday, October 04, 2008 New Walberg/NRCC Ad
I missed this the other day... On Septmeber 30, the Walberg folks have another attack ad:
First, can I just say, "Sour On Schauer" has to be the stupidest thing I've heard this year. Really? That's literally the best thing you can come up with? I support Mark Schauer, and I can come up with more clever ways to attack him! And what's with the lemons? Really? And the bouncing lemon animation, as if they were singing a song... but they're not singing? Maybe I just don't get it. But really, come on! I'm all for creativity, but come on! Congressman Walberg, hire a better ad agency! These are awful! But that's not the important part. A stupid campaign ad will be forgotten pretty quickly. Here's the important part:  Right there, "Paid for by the National Republican Congressional Committee and Walberg for Congress." As far as I know, that's the first time the NRCC has helped Walberg pick up the advertising bill. It's not unusual for the party to help pay for some costs for a campaign-- staff, polling, etc.-- as long as the party gets something out of it, too. But I don't remember seeing the NRCC actually help pay for ads before. Normally, I'd say that means Tim Walberg is running low on cash, and needs some extra help to make ends meet. The third quarter just ended, so FEC campaign finance reports should be coming out sometime in the next two weeks and we'll get a clearer picture. If the Walberg campaign can't even pay for its own advertising, they're in trouble. But I said, "Normally, I'd say that means..." Why wouldn't I say that this time? Frankly, because the NRCC doesn't have much money either, and has a lot of contested incumbents they're trying to protect. At the end of August, the DCCC had almost $54 million on-hand, compared to $14 million for the NRCC, and the DCCC was spending about twice as much as their Republican counterparts. Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report says that the Republicans have 37 seats in danger this year, compared to just 18 for the Democrats. That makes me think there's some other reason than Walberg being short on cash. The NRCC is spread thin enough that I'd think they'd have better things to do than help Walberg pay for a crappy ad. I don't know, this one has me puzzled. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, DCCC, Mark Schauer, NRCC, Tim Walberg Tuesday, September 30, 2008 Joe Schwarz Endorses Mark Schauer
Big news:
Former Republican Rep. Joe Schwarz, who railed against an anti-tax group's role in his unsuccessful 2006 primary, endorsed Democrat Mark Schauer on Tuesday because the organization targeted the congressional challenger.and Schwarz, a supporter of John McCain's presidential campaign, said he had hoped to stay neutral in the race but "once they made the decision, the die was cast."and, finally Schwarz said his supporters and former constituents had repeatedly asked him who he planned to support. He had hoped to stay neutral in the race but said he would now let his supporters know that he backs Schauer.Though, instead of reading it here, the AP would much rather have you read it at the Chicago Tribune's website. Here's the statement released by state Senator Mark Schauer: "Joe Schwarz has been a colleague and a partner in helping move our state forward for many years, and it is an honor to have his support in this campaign," said Schauer. "Three years ago, I worked side-by-side with Joe to help save hundreds of jobs at the Battle Creek Air National Guard Base, and unfortunately, that spirit of bipartisanship has been missing since Tim Walberg was elected. With Joe's support, I look forward to fighting for the change Michigan needs as a member of Congress."Nice. It's important to note that former Congressman Schwarz still supports (and calls a friend) Senator John McCain, and he's got a lot of friends throughout the 7th Congressional District. If Schwarz supported Schauer but did it quietly, this wouldn't be a big deal for Tim Walberg. But make no mistake, an open endorsement-- especially if followed by joint Schwarz-Schauer campaigning-- is not good news for Tim Walberg. If Congressman Walberg wants to blame anyone, he can blame his friends at the Club for Growth. Labels: 2008 Election, Joe Schwarz, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg McCain To Campaign With Walberg
... Joe McCain, that is... From Walberg for Congress:
Join Team Walberg It's not quite as exciting as Barack Obama and Joe Biden in Battle Creek, but it might be interesting anyway. I'll be curious to find out what kind of turnout Joe McCain and Tim Walberg get in Adrian. I wonder how disappointed the Walberg folks were when they found out that they had to settle for the younger brother. Still, it's interesting-- apparently, the younger McCain wasn't campaigning for his older brother, preferring to keep to himself. I'd encourage all of you to go and check it out. It might be interesting, and you might get a chance to ask a few questions. Maybe Tim Walberg and Joe McCain would like to talk about the Club for Growth, a group that John McCain has had unkind words for in the past. Labels: 2008 Election, Joe McCain, Tim Walberg Club for Growth On-Air With $175,000
It's the moment we've all been waiting for... the Club for Growth is on the air:
Washington – Today, the Club for Growth PAC begins running a TV ad on Mark Schauer’s tax record in Michigan’s Seventh Congressional District. The $175,000 ad buy will run on broadcast television in the Lansing market and on cable stations throughout the Seventh District.Here's the ad: ... That's intellectually dishonest! For instance, the poor lady who's worried about Mark Schauer raising her Social Security taxes doesn't tell you that Schauer only said he would support removing the $90,000 cap on payroll taxes. From the article they cite: Schauer said in a conference call with reporters that he would be open to such proposals as raising the current cap on payroll taxes but would not be open to private accounts. He says private accounts would "weaken" the entire Social Security program. He said he'd be open to a "bi-partisan solution that makes adjustments to current Social Security."Currently, only the first $90,000 you make is taxed for Social Security. That is, if you make $60,000 each year, all $60,000 is subject to the payroll tax. If you make $160,000 each year, then $90,000 is subject to the payroll tax and the other $70,000 is not. Removing that cap is generally considered a part of the solution to Social Security's long-term solvency, and the public supports it: "Currently, people pay Social Security taxes only on the first $90,000 of their annual income. If it were necessary to keep the Social Security program paying benefits as it does now, would you favor or oppose increasing the amount of income that is subject to Social Security taxes?"Admittedly, that's a poll from 2005-- it's the most recent one I could find. But I find it hard to believe there's been a dramatic shift since then. I'm going to come back to some of the other tax claims some other time, I promise. My point here is just to highlight the way that the Club for Growth sometimes represents certain things differently than you or I would. Let's remember, these are the people who trashed Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz as "a liberal" who would spend your money, kill your babies, and take away your guns. They're not very nice, and they've got a lot of money. And, of course, they've had a reliable vote in Tim Walberg. The Schauer campaign has responded: BATTLE CREEK—Today the extreme Washington D.C. special interest group Club for Growth began airing its first attack ad against congressional candidate Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek).So what does this move mean? It means that the Club for Growth thinks Tim Walberg is in trouble. They don't do incumbent protection, they go after "bad" Republicans and open seats. Spending $175,000 is probably just the beginning. Tim Walberg, despite all of the advantages of incumbency, can't win reelection on his own. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Club for Growth, Mark Schauer, Taxes, Tim Walberg Schauer Releases Another Ad
This one is titled, "Tables":
Except for the strange static in the background toward the end, I'd say that in my opinion, this is the most powerful ad of the race so far. It hits Walberg with his own words (albeit from 2004) and speaks to an issue pretty much everyone in Michigan can relate to in some way. And the personal promise from Mark Schauer at the end to "fight for your job" doesn't hurt either. I don't have much more to say about this one. What do you think? Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Economy, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Democracy Corps Puts MI-07 Close, Possibly Democratic Advantage
Democracy Corps is a group founded by Bill Clinton adviser James Carville and pollser Stanley Greenberg which advises Democrats and analyzes elections. Every so often, they release a "battleground poll" surveying the most competitive congressional races in the country. Although they don't give any information broken down by district, they use this to analyze national trends.
In 2008, Michigan's 7th District is listed in "Tier 1" of Republican-held seats, along with 19 others. In total, 50 districts were included in the survey. The whole report is worth reading if you're a political junkie. I thought I'd share a few interesting items. Remember, this isn't a poll of the 7th District, but it's a poll that includes the 7th District. The financial crisis, which had not yet reached its peak when this survey was in the field, is driving a deepening anger across the country and in these Republican districts. Just 14 percent of likely voters believe the country is heading in the right direction, the lowest number we have seen in our Democracy Corps congressional polling, even in this Republican battleground. The intensely negative mood is more directed at Republicans, who are seeing their brand continue to erode. President Bush remains toxic and the Republican Party is now significantly less popular than the Democrats, even in this more conservative battleground.and Democratic candidates are taking advantage of this favorable environment and now hold a 49 percent to 45 percent lead in the 40-seat Republican battleground.>[2] This is a broad lead – with Democrats holding equal 4-point cushions in the top tier of races, the 20 most vulnerable seats, and in the second tier, the next 20 districts.� If the election were held today, Democrats would be poised to win, perhaps, well upwards of 20 Republican seats.and ... In fact, Republican incumbents are losing further ground, being dragged down by the toxic environment and unpopular GOP brand. As disdain for Washington has increased, the Republican incumbents have failed to establish their independence from Bush or their party. Since May, the percent saying Republican incumbents are not independent has risen from 45 to 53 percent while the percent saying these incumbents follow Bush’s direction too much has jumped from 40 to 49 percent.>[3]and Meanwhile, 48 percent now disagree that Republican incumbents are “on your side,” up from 40 percent four months ago. This key attribute is another important driver of the vote in our regressions. As a result of this poor performance on so many attributes, a near majority of 48 percent of voters in these 40 Republican districts now say they simply can’t vote to reelect their incumbent congressman and in a named matchup, the Democratic challengers lead these incumbents 49-45.(Emphasis added.) By now, I've probably exceeded fair use guidlines, but there's a lot more in the full report that's worth reading. It doesn't mean that Tim Walberg will lose to Mark Schauer, but it does mean that we're part of a nationwide trend toward the Democrats this year. If you're a Democrat, you've got a lot of reasons to be optimistic. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, James Carville, Poll, Stan Greenberg Saturday, September 27, 2008 Fatherhood In The 7th District
Brad Flory at the Jackson Citizen Patriot writes about fatherhood amidst the Walberg and Schauer campaigns:
It's very silly, yes, but it does a good job of driving home the ridiculousness of Walberg's advertisement, which actually does accuse Mark Schauer of wanting to give children pornography. Go read the whole thing, it's worth it. The ending is also powerful: Ouch. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Constitution, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Another Internal: Walberg 50, Schauer 40
From the Battle Creek Enquirer:
Tim Walberg has his own poll, and according to that one, he's leading the 7th Congressional District race.In addition to the Enquirer, Chetly Zarko got the memo from the Walberg campaign. It was conducted over September 15 and 16 by National Research, Inc., a Republican polling firm. It has a sample of 300 "likely voters" stratified geographically, and has a margin of error of 5.7 percent. Here are the results (with 7/08-09 results in parentheses where available, also +/- 5.7): Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg Walberg Favorable - Unfavorable Schauer Favorable - Unfavorable Obama vs. McCain Generic Congressional Ballot So, what does all of this mean? First, it means that either A.) the last Walberg internal was an outlier or B.) Mark Schauer has made an enormous nine-point gain since the beginning of August. The first one isn't a big deal-- it made Walberg's people feel good about themselves for a day. The second one should worry them a lot. Though, then again, here's what Walberg's pollster says: Despite the barrage of negative ads directed against him, Congressman Tim Walberg leads Mark Schauer 50%-40% according to our most recent congressional survey in the district, conducted on September 15 and 16 among 300 likely voters in the district. This represents a significant gain for Congressman Walberg, who was garnering 47% in our July survey. With his poll numbers now at 50%, Walberg enters the month of October with momentum.(Emphasis added.) That's quite a positive spin! Personally, I'd say that the significant gain goes to the one who, you know, actually gained more. It's also important to note that, with a 10-point lead in a poll with a margin of error of 5.7 percent, Walberg is now within the margin of error (barely) in his own polling. That's not what will get the headline, though. The magical 50 percent mark is an important one to the media, and one that I don't think Walberg has reached in any previous polling. (He also didn't reach it in 2006-- he had 49.99 percent of the vote). Last night, I wrote a partial defense of internal polling, saying that it's still useful and reliable. Now, I'm wondering if there might actually be a systematic difference between Schauer's polls and Walberg's polls-- namely, in the geographic breakdown and in the likely voter screen. Is Walberg oversampling Branch County and undersampling the youth vote? Or is Schauer oversampling Calhoun County and undersampling Hillsdale County? I don't know, and the campaigns don't release that kind of information. The reason I wonder about that is the name recognition. Only 55 percent know who Mark Schauer is in this poll, where 67 percent did in Schauer's last poll. Similarly, 86 percent know who Tim Walberg is in this poll, where it was only 76 in Schauer's poll. That kind of difference surprises me, and makes me think someone weighted the counties differently. Then again, both polls strike me as plausible, especially with the large margins of error. It really doesn't matter, though. There are 38 days until election day. That's more than enough time for everything to change. Overall, it was a good poll for Walberg, but maybe a better poll for Schauer. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Poll, Tim Walberg Sharon Renier To Run As Write-In
There have been people talking about this in the comments, and now I'm finally getting around to it. I assure you, I didn't delay for any particular reason.
Actually, that's not true. I delayed because I wanted to focus on stories that actually mattered. From the Battle Creek Enquirer: and "If you look at the numbers, people were disenfranchised in the primary," she said. "The state legislature decides election laws, and things being what they are, a lot of voters couldn't really voice their preference because they had to vote either Republican or Democrat."and Right. First, let me say that I honestly, truly do like Sharon Renier. I supported her in 2006, because I absolutely do believe that she would have been a better representative than Tim Walberg. She ran as a Democrat, espoused some good, legitimately Democratic ideas, and would have done less harm for the district than Tim Walberg and his rigid ideology. That said, Sharon Renier was definitely not a traditional Democrat-- she was her own person, and she brought some unique ideas to the table. But she was passionate, and I like that a lot. But she wasn't my first choice in the 2006 primary, and, of course, she wasn't my choice in 2008. Some of her ideas do stray from the mainstream. There are some issues where I don't think she's particularly well-versed. And some of what she says really bothers me. It's one thing to be a sore loser, but she and some of her supporters equate Tim Walberg with Mark Schauer. That's just silly. On any of the issues-- including issues that matter to her-- Mark Schauer will be lightyears ahead of Tim Walberg. Will Schauer and Renier always agree? No. Schauer and I don't always agree either. That's just not the way politics works. Some people call that picking the "lesser of two evils." I absolutely and wholeheartedly disagree. And then, you have to consider why Sharon Renier didn't win in her first two attempts. It wasn't because of personality-- there are some very colorful characters in Congress. It was because of campaigning. The 2006 race was better than 2004, but neither was run as a viable campaign. She didn't pass a certain threshold for the party to support her in force, and she didn't pass a certain threshold for voters to take her seriously. Many of her votes really were just anti-Walberg votes. So, where does this leave us? She's running as an independent and as a write-in. Joe Schwarz ran as a write-in, too, and got 1.07 percent of the vote. In an extremely close race, that could be all it takes to spoil it for Schauer. But there are some differences, too. Joe Schwarz went into the election as an incumbent (albeit a lame-duck), with high name recognition, and an energized base of angry supporters. Sharon Renier, on the other hand, has very low name recognition-- even after two times on the ballot, 80 percent of the district didn't know who she was in July of 2007. And, where Schwarz filed as a write-in the day before the election, making his move a fresh memory for his supporters, Renier will have to work hard to remind her loyalists that she's trying to run. Since she didn't really have any money to speak of before the election, that'll be hard. One plus for her is that she won't have to change her campaign website... She never actually acknowledged her loss in the primary, so it's looked as if she was still running all along! I might be wrong, but I don't think this is a big factor in the race. She's grabbing attention one more time in September, and might get a couple of articles one more time in October, but that's it. Unless she can demonstrate a credible reason for why she should win under the least likely of circumstances, I don't see this mattering all that much. Labels: 2008 Election, Sharon Renier, Write-In More On The Schauer Poll
While you're all watching Senators McCain and Obama, I thought I'd finally get around to writing more about the poll the Schauer campaign released. Just for a reminder, here's what the poll found:
Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg (Plus Undecideds, allocated based on stated partisan leanings) Name Recognition Walberg Job Performance So, what does all of this mean? Schauer's pollster, Andrew Myers, picks out one important finding: This survey demonstrates that Schauer’s communications are clearly taking root. Today Schauer is known by 67 percent of voters, a substantial 25 point jump in identification since MayThat's the big one, much more than the 42-36 headline. It shows that Schauer's breaking out of his Senate district and getting more attention elsewhere in the district. This is good-- it means the money they're spending on television ads and field organizing is working. It shows that the overall strategy of introducing Schauer to more voters is working. Remember, Schauer doesn't have to win Lenawee County or Hillsdale County to win the election, he just has to not lose too badly, and then perform well in his base. Man, I'd love to see a geographical breakdown of the results. Of course, by running mostly attack ads, Walberg might be helping to increase Schauer's name recognition. Walberg's attacks might drive up some of Schauer's negatives, but it also makes sure people know that there's an alternative to Tim Walberg. Oh, the irony. But let's get back to that headline. Schauer leads, 42 to 36. But it's also an internal poll, commissioned by Mark Schauer through a Democratic polling outfit. It must be rigged, right? No. Just like Walberg's internal poll released a couple of months ago, I don't doubt that the poll was conducted with fair, legitimate polling practices. It's not in anyone's interest to pay for inaccurate polling-- the Schauer campaign probably cares a lot more about getting useful information than about sending out a good press release and having a favorable news cycle. Does that mean that this poll is accurate? No, not necessarily. A 95 percent confidence level means that 95 percent of the time, the poll will be correct to within the stated margin of error (in this case, 4.38 percent). Schauer's lead is within the margin of error, though it's better to be leading and within the margin of error than losing. But it's also possible that this is one of those 5 percent polls (like I think Walberg's was), where it's not accurate by more than the margin. Supposing Schauer's poll is absolutely correct, this is a big deal. There are still a lot of undecideds-- and a lot of people who are paying close attention to Obama-McCain, but haven't thought about Schauer-Walberg. But among those that are decided, Schauer is leading a sitting congressman by six points. That's a tough thing to do. I don't know that I'm saying anything new or interesting tonight, I just wanted to share a few thoughts. It's a good poll for Schauer. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Mark Schauer, Poll, Tim Walberg Friday, September 26, 2008 Walberg Snubs... Walberg Watch
Ouch. I get no love from the Walberg campaign, according to the Citizen Patriot's Chris Gautz:
(Emphasis added.) In case you didn't notice, the "certain liberal bloggers" link above points to... Walberg Watch. I'm not sure if they singled me out or if Chris Gautz just assumed that they meant me. Either way, I was not invited. But don't feel too sorry for me. I didn't even know I was not invited. Indeed, I had no idea that such a conference call was going to take place. Come on, Congressman Walberg. If you're going to snub me, the least you could do is tell me that you're going to snub me! A phone call or an e-mail would have been more than enough! Tonight's going to be another big catch-up night. I hope you all enjoy the presidential debate, and I hope you all hurry back to Walberg Watch to read all the new stuff. UPDATE: For the record, while my mother says she loves me very much, I doubt that she would want me to be blogging from her basement. Speaking from first-hand knowledge, it's not all that comfortable, though they do have a ping-pong table, which would be the source of hours of entertainment. And, also, until reading this piece, I had no idea what a "funyun" was. I guess I'm not all that hip. More seriously, while it was a funny read, those sorts of comments don't really help. A lot of people rely on blogs and other new media for information and analysis, and, strangely enough, there are even some people that take Walberg Watch pretty seriously. Belittling the medium makes more enemies than friends-- especially when you're using some new media techniques in your old media job. I don't think there's anything wrong with more traditional media-- it fills its own role, and I fill mine. Can't we all just get along? Labels: 2008 Election, Netroots, Tim Walberg Thursday, September 25, 2008 Poll: Schauer 42, Walberg 36
UPDATE: Sorry for the delay. The poll was conducted by Myers Research & Strategic Services, who are the same ones that conducted the Schauer internal poll from May that was released a month or two ago. They're a Democratic firm, but that isn't necessarily a reason to doubt the numbers. More on that later.
The poll was conducted September 24 and 25, 2008 (CORRECTION: September 23 and 24), with a sample size of 500 "likely voters," and the respondents were "stratified geographically"-- in other words, this wasn't all Battle Creek. The margin of error is +/- 4.38 percent, with a 95 percent confidence level. Here are the results released today (previous results in parentheses, MoE +/- 4.00): Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg (Plus Undecideds, allocated based on stated partisan leanings) Name Recognition Myers also asks respondents to rate candidates on a "personal feeling thermometer," where 100 is very warm and 0 is very cold, with 50 neutral. Personal Feeling Thermometer And, finally: Walberg Job Performance Myers also says that "seven in ten" respondents believe the country is on the wrong track, which is where it was in their May poll, as well. I've got a lot of thoughts on this poll, which I'll be compiling this afternoon. I'll have more later today. ---- The Schauer campaign just released a poll-- Schauer 42, Walberg 36. More information and thoughts to come soon. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Poll, Tim Walberg Wednesday, September 24, 2008 Schauer Releases Third TV Ad
I'm not anywhere near done catching up on the news from the last two-and-a-half weeks, but the campaign steams forward today with another new television ad. This time, it's Mark Schauer who's going negative, albeit in defense of his own record.
My initial reaction to this ad was "Ouch." It's harsh, and drives home the "Tim Walberg is lying" message rather well. I think this is a decent ad-- it responds to Walberg's attacks without actually refuting them, but that would require more than just 30 seconds. At the same time, both sides going this negative in September might turn a lot of people off by November. You have to respond, but I hope that Schauer doesn't go all negative, the way Walberg has. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Tuesday, September 23, 2008 Schauer Releases "Truth Squad" Videos
Catching Up... -- Fitzy
For quite a while now, I've written about how Mark Schauer's campaign has been using the internet in smart and innovative ways, as well as their strong outreach program with blogs and people like me. It's really very impressive, and they decided to use the medium yet again to respond to Tim Walberg's attack ads: Truth Squad: Walberg Attacks Schauer Record of Helping Business - Released September 11, 2008 in response to Walberg's attack ad, "Jobs" (Coverage Here) and Truth Squad: Walberg Lies Again - Released September 17, 2008 in response to Walberg's attack ad, "Children's Future" (Coverage Here) I like the format of these videos-- the true/false message is effective (and kind of funny), and, for the most part, they refute Walberg's attacks fairly well. (In some cases, it changes the subject, refocusing on Walberg's support for a 23 percent sales tax, but it does so smoothly and plausibly. It's certainly a better segue than Walberg's pornography to taxes transition.) It's a good use of video and it offers a point-by-point response. Next time, I think some low, ominous piano chords might fit well when refuting Walberg's claims, to make the contrast with the hopeful music at the end more clear. But that's just me nitpicking. They're good videos. The problem is, these things don't work as television commercials. They go out over the supporter e-mail list and are seen by YouTube wanderers, but that's about it. And as of writing this, each video has between 600 and 700 views on YouTube. That's still more than double the number of views Walberg's attack ads have on YouTube (Man, they're really bad at this!), but it's nothing compared to how many will see Walberg's ads on television. That's where you come in. If you hear someone comment on Walberg's ads, send them these videos. Make sure the people you know see the other side of the story. These won't be viral YouTube sensations, no, but they have the potential to change a few minds. I'm guessing that we're going to see a lot more of these videos between now and November. I'll be posting them to the Schauer media page on Walberg Watch as they're released. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Economy, Mark Schauer, National Sales Tax, Taxes, Tim Walberg Walberg Releases Another Attack Ad
Catching Up... -- Fitzy
Congressman Tim Walberg released his third campaign advertisement on September 17, 2008. The ad is harsh-- a mother appears on camera and tells us about the horrors of Mark Schauer. And yet, something seems odd to me about the ad: Maybe it's just me, but it seems like this ad is trying to do to much. It ties together two attacks on Mark Schauer-- that he supposedly supports high taxes and that he supposedly supports sending pornography to children-- but those two attacks really don't fit together well. The narrative connecting them, which is that Schauer supposedly puts children's futures in jeopardy, strikes me as contrived and unnatural. The first time I watched the ad, my response was, "Huh?" Then again, the last line sticks, and if you're not paying close attention to the whole thing, the two attacks seem effective. Unfortunately, as is often the case, Walberg's attacks have a casual relationship with reality. The Schauer campaign released a press release in response to the part about child pornography: "This latest attack from Tim Walberg is another boldfaced lie from a floundering candidate. Mark Schauer has repeatedly and consistently voted to protect Michigan children, including supporting bills that prevent children from being exposed to pornography. The truth is that while Walberg has done nothing to save Michigan jobs, he will say or do anything to save his own."In other words, Schauer did vote against one bill, because it was flagrantly violating our constitutional rights, and would be struck down by the courts... which it was. But Schauer has a long record of voting for laws that can actually do something to protect children. Congressman Walberg, it takes a special kind of sleaze to accuse your opponent of wanting to send pornography to children. That's dishonest, disgusting, and just stupid. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Mark Schauer, Taxes, Tim Walberg Schauer Releases Second TV Ad
Catching Up... -- Fitzy
On September 14, state Senator Mark Schauer released his second television advertisement: There are some striking similarities and even more striking differences between this ad and Congressman Walberg's second television ad. Like Walberg's ad, the important part is the personal testimonial-- one person in front of the camera, sharing his thoughts on the candidate. These tend to be effective. It's good politics to show other faces than your own. But Walberg's second ad was an attack ad and very negative (with scary music and everything). It ended on a frightening note: "Our survival is in jeopardy if we let [Schauer raise taxes]." Schauer's ends with soft music, a message of hope, and a sense of accomplishment: "Our jobs are staying here, and we have Mark Schauer to thank for it." I don't know which message will be more effective. Anyone who's been watching politics for the last eight years knows that fear works and motivates voters, but the last year has shown that hope works, too. I just think it's interesting. Now that both candidates are on the air, I'd love to see some polling that asks about the effectiveness of the ads. But, sadly, pollsters don't come to me for ideas, nor do I have the money to commission polls myself. Also interesting, though less important in terms of moving voters, was the fundraising e-mail sent out by the Schauer campaign after releasing the ad. One part of the e-mail reads: We can't let Tim Walberg get away with another vicious smear campaign against me, like he did two years ago against Joe Schwarz.Obviously, this shows that Democrats know how to use fear, too, just in a different sort of way. But I think it's also telling that Schauer is starting to invoke Joe Schwarz in these e-mails. Schwarz is every Michigan Democrat's favorite Republican, and for many good reasons, and memories of the 2006 primary are a good motivator for Schauer's donor base. But Schwarz is still a powerful influence among independents and Republicans in the district, too. I'll be interested to see how much his name is used as we move closer to November. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Economy, Fundraising, Joe Schwarz, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Friday, September 05, 2008 Schauer Releases First TV Ad
This morning, Schauer for Congress sent out a fundraising e-mail that included a link to their first television ad. The timing of the ad, Schauer admits, is in part because of the attack ad released by Tim Walberg's campaign:
Here's the new ad: What do you think? Will this help get Schauer's name out in places like Lenawee, Hillsdale, and Branch Counties? Is it an effective ad? Is it an effective response to the Walberg ad? Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Economy, Fundraising, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Tuesday, September 02, 2008 Walberg Releases Attack Ad
This is going to get pretty nasty... From YouTube user SeventhDem:
This is Walberg's second television ad and, perhaps because of its negative tone, is not yet included on the Walberg for Congress YouTube channel. Here's the Schauer campaign response: WALBERG ATTACK MACHINE LIES ABOUT SCHAUER RECORD OF HELPING SMALL BUSINESSESThat's a fairly effective response to the ad and to Mike Shirkey, but at some point, the Schauer campaign will need a good response to the "deciding vote for the largest tax increase in Michigan's history" nonsense. It is nonsense, too (and hopefully I'll get a chance to write more about it), but a short, memorable response to the claim would be helpful. I am, however, surprised by an attack ad from the Walberg campaign this early. Normally, I would think they'd save this for October, and let their buddies at Freedom's Watch do the dirty work. This makes me think that the ad is mainly a response to the EPIC-MRA poll that came out last week. Recall: Overall, would you say that things in the United States are generally headed in the right direction, or have things pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?Walberg's campaign is reacting to what looks like momentum for Mark Schauer. It seems to me that they're worried, and with good reason. And, of course, remember that Mark Schauer hasn't gone on the air yet with his television ads. Walberg has been on the air since August 6th. UPDATE: Sometime between when I first posted this and now, the Walberg campaign put up their ad on YouTube. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Economy, Mark Schauer, Taxes, Tim Walberg Sunday, August 31, 2008 Obama-Biden In Battle Creek
Obama-Biden in Battle Creek:
I'll be there, and I'll have photos and thoughts either late tonight or tomorrow morning. For on-the-ground reports, check out the Battle Creek Enquirer's Twittering reporters. Meanwhile, share your thoughts and-- if you go-- your experience. It's not every day that a major presidential contender and his vice president come to Michigan's 7th District. It's even rarer when you can get in without having to pay $500 per plate. UPDATE (1:48am Sept. 01, 2008): I'm back from Battle Creek, with two memory cards full of photos and video, a notebook full of scribbles, and a pounding headache, the result of a beautiful, sunny, hot, cloudless day. I'll have lots of photos and more thoughts tomorrow, but for now, I'll leave you with a couple of images from the day/evening:     That's all for tonight. I'm going to bed now. UPDATE II: I'm not in bed quite yet. I had one fun fact to share. Today, 16,000 people saw Barack Obama and Joe Biden in Battle Creek. It was, basically, a normal crowd for a candidate that's got a lot of enthusiasm behind him. His big days are times like the 75,000 in Portland or the 80,000 in Denver. In 2004, President George W. Bush managed a crowd of 10,000 in Battle Creek. Today, John McCain also had a big crowd, but rather than a routine, normal size, it was his biggest ever, thanks to his vice presidential bounce. How big was it? 17,000. Crowd size isn't everything, no, but it's not nothing, either. Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Mark Schauer NRCC To Spend $832,000
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced in July that it would be reserving $1.5 million in advertising time in Michigan's 7th District. The Politico.com brings us the response from the National Republican Congressional Committee:
The Republicans' campaign arm in the House has reserved another round of television ads to prop up their vulnerable GOP colleagues this fall.(Emphasis added.) There's really not much more to say here. The GOP is playing defense, and, for now, has decided that Tim Walberg is worth fighting to protect. But when the DCCC has more cash-on-hand than the NRCC ($56,456,584 to $14,233,074 as of the end of July), they'll be able to push hard across all 21 districts that the NRCC is defending and more. When faced with limited resources, I still say there's a chance the Republican leaders may choose to protect an older incumbent (and longtime friend) over the freshman from Michigan. Of course, Walberg has the Club for Growth and now Freedom's Watch on his side, so there'll still be plenty of money available to rush to his defense. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Advertising, DCCC, NRCC, Republican Party, Tim Walberg Thursday, August 28, 2008 Walberg On Michigan Business Success: "Bummer"
A lot of people don't know much about a man named Homer Stryker, but they should. Raised in Athens, Michigan, he was a teacher, a World War I soldier, a doctor, and an inventor. As an orthopedic surgeon in Kalamazoo, he began building devices that improved the comfort of the patients he was treating. The company he founded-- Stryker Corp.-- has grown into a Fortune 500 company and a leader in medical technologies.
But best of all, they're still in Kalamazoo, Michigan. With nearly 19,000 employees worldwide, the world headquarters and much of the manufacturing is still in Michigan. This is the perfect Michigan success story. It shows that Michigan businesses can thrive and be successful and stay in Michigan. It shows that hard work and creativity can lead to great results. This is the sort of success story politicians should be talking about all the time. So what does Tim Walberg say about it while touring a hospital? (Emphasis added.) "Bummer." That's his reaction to a Michigan success story. Why? Jon Stryker, one of three billionaire grandchildren of Stryker's founder, has in recent years funded numerous liberal causes, and his Coalition for Progress has contributed to Schauer's 2008 campaign.Yup. Tim Walberg doesn't like Stryker because one of the grandchildren of the founder is a Democrat. And it's true-- Jon Stryker has spent a lot of money on his political activities. It's much like the many members of the Club for Growth, who funded the congressman's 2006 campaign. To his credit, Walberg eventually acknowledged that he was wrong: In the end, Walberg noted that the company is a separate entity and said, "If Stryker makes the best hospital bed, that's the one I want to be in."But an initial reaction says a lot. In the comments on the Battle Creek Enquirer article, user DSMi59 wrote: His comment about Stryker and it's politics is a good guage of how he values Michigan businesses. It isn't the business he appreciates, one who chooses staying in Michigan and making local employment possible, it's that Stryker supports the wrong political party. He resents being in a hospital bed manufactured in his own state. Bummer, indeed!And Michigan Liberal's Eric B. wrote: He could have said that he was proud to have been in a bed made by the nation's best workers, right here in Michigan, in one of the nation's best hospitals. He could have said that. Didn't.Congressman Walberg, perceptions mean a lot, and as a public figure, you're in a position that attracts a lot of attention. "Bummer" doesn't convince businesses to stay in Michigan. It's possible that we're all being a little too sensitive, but seriously, "bummer"? That's the most intelligent thing you can think of? For the record, I've got no problem buying cabinetry from Merillat, despite the numerous times that the Merillat name shows up in Walberg's FEC filing. For that matter, Battle Creek Unlimited still does plenty of great things for that city, so don't judge them harshly just because their CEO contributed $500 to Tim Walberg's re-election campaign. Business is business, and politics is politics. In a state like Michigan, I don't care who you vote for, as long as you're providing jobs and helping your community. It's too bad Tim Walberg doesn't feel the same way. Labels: 2008 Election, Economy, Fundraising, Issues, Jon Stryker, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Friday Walberg Motorcycle Tour Stops
As Congressman Tim Walberg continues his "motorcycle tour," in which he rides across the 7th District on his Harley Davidson motorcycle (listening to constituents, but, of course, not campaigning for re-election-- despite the prominent sticker on his motorcycle), he'll be making stops in Jackson County tomorrow:
I have yet to find the full 27-stop schedule, but I'd encourage readers to visit Congressman Walberg at one of these stops. It's a great opportunity to ask him questions, like:
Labels: 2008 Election, Energy, Issues, Oil, Tim Walberg Obama, Biden Visit Battle Creek On Sunday
It's not exactly news about the 7th District race, but it is happening in Battle Creek and state Senator Mark Schauer will be there, so it qualifies for this blog.
It's been confirmed. Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has scheduled a rally for Sunday in Battle Creek.Even if you're a Republican, I'd encourage you to look into this and see if you can attend. It's not every day that you get to see the man who may be our next president in person. And, hey, maybe he might just change your mind. Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Mark Schauer Monday, August 25, 2008 EPIC-MRA Poll: Walberg 43, Schauer 40
UPDATE: Full poll results are at the bottom, via WXYZ.
For the Detroit News, EPIC-MRA brings us a new poll: Walberg of Tipton leads Schauer, a state senator from Battle Creek by 43-40 percent, which is within the poll's 4.9-point error margin. A decisive 14 percent of voters in the district are undecided.(Emphasis added.) The Schauer campaign sent out a press release: NEW INDEPENDENT POLL SHOWS DEAD HEAT IN MICHIGAN'S 7TH DISTRICTThis really does look bad for Walberg. He's still leading, and, contrary to the Schauer press release, it's not a "dead heat," but it is within the margin of error. That's a lot closer than it should be for an incumbent in a lean-Republican district. It's certainly a lot closer than the internal poll the Walberg campaign released last month. As the Schauer campaign points out, this also comes after a few weeks of Walberg being on the air, yet he's losing ground against a challenger who has yet to really advertise. Both sides are the beneficiaries (and victims) of independent attacks. Perhaps more significant than the Walberg-Schauer result is the job performance result. Recall: Voters, by 43-32 percent, give Walberg negative ratings for his job performance.That's ridiculously awful. A net 11 point disapproval means that even the Republican base is disappointed in him. I'd be interested to see where Schauer stands on name identification. If it's still relatively low, combined with Walberg's negative ratings, then we can expect to see the race tighten further. Maybe this isn't a conservative district after all! ----- Via WXYZ, the full results. 7TH DISTRICT RESULTS There's a lot to digest there. UPDATE II: Fixed typos. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Mark Schauer, Poll, Tim Walberg Schauer Endorsed By Ex-Republican DeWeese
Everyone remembers the 2006 Republican primary, in which Tim Walberg defeated incumbent Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz. But two years earlier, the 2004 GOP primary was just as hard-fought a race, drawing six legitimate Republican candidates, all of whom at some point had a plausible chance of winning.
That race ended with Joe Schwarz squeaking by with a narrow plurality: Joe Schwarz (R), 28%We all, of course, know what happened with Schwarz and Walberg two years later. Clark Bisbee considered challenging Walberg in the primary this year, but decided against it, and: Other names being floated are the two other also-rans in the '04 primary, former Reps. Gene DeROSSETT and Paul DeWEESE.Neither, of course, decided to join the race. Indeed, Paul DeWeese decided instead to join the Democratic Party: Former Rep. Paul DeWeese of Williamston, a one-time Republican Senate and congressional candidate, said he's changed parties and is now a Democrat.(Emphasis added.) Now, we get this news from Schauer for Congress: FORMER REPUBLICAN STATE REP. PAUL DEWEESE ENDORSES SCHAUER FOR CONGRESS(Emphasis added.) I think it's important to make clear just how significant this might be. DeWeese was certainly a moderate Republican, and as a state Representative, he didn't actually live in the 7th District. At the same time, he's a known quantity to 7th District Republicans, and especially to moderates who are wary of Walberg but not yet sure about Schauer. And also, it never hurts to have a well-known emergency room doctor say that you're better on health care than your opponent. The town hall the press release mentions contains a heated exchange between a questioner and Congressman Walberg. You can listen to the whole thing here (low-quality .mp3), but here's the important part: Walberg: ... That’s an issue, and I suggest that health savings accounts aren’t the only way to go, but I also suggest that we need to find ways, like associated health plans, giving the same tax breaks to individuals to purchase health insurance that we give to businesses…This, of course, is a partial transcript, with a lot more before and after, and I probably made a few mistakes through there. Even so, this is a fairly good account of the discussion. From this, we see that Tim Walberg's health care plan is, basically, the same "Every man for himself!" strategy he brings to other issues. And if you're still too poor to receive quality health care, well, you can just use the emergency room and drive up the costs for the rest of us. That's not smart economics, and that's not smart health care. Walberg's system has no room for preventative care, which saves lives and money. It leaves emergency rooms-- the part of the hospital you want working most smoothly-- overcrowded and overwhelmed. And it leaves the rest of us to pay for it anyway. I'm glad to see former state Representative and Dr. DeWeese endorse Mark Schauer. Are there any other doctors out there interested in endorsing? Dr. Schwarz? Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Health Care, Paul DeWeese, Tim Walberg Friday, August 22, 2008 Walberg Lenawee Kickoff Disappointing?
A short post now, then I've got a much more important post coming up next.
Today, Congressman Walberg held his Lenawee County Campaign Kickoff:
I spoke earlier with someone who attended Walberg's kickoff rally. How many people showed up? 10. Including staff. Contrast this with Mark Schauer's town hall in Adrian a couple of weeks before the primary, which had somewhere between 60 and 70 people attend. Walberg's still got the advantage, but he can only draw a crowd of 10 in Lenawee County? If that's true, then he's got plenty of reasons to be worried about November. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Thursday, August 21, 2008 Walberg Increases Internet Operation
I've repeated a number of times that the internet is still the best untapped resource for political campaigns to reach out to supporters and win over undecided voters. Mark Schauer has been doing a fantastic job, with a number of innovative ideas and embracing dynamic content. Up until the primary, Tim Walberg's attempts at using the internet were disappointing.
This may be changing. Tim Walberg's campaign has significantly increased his internet operation, now with a website, a blog, a Twitter feed, a Facebook page, and a YouTube channel. So far, this is impressive-- though, it's worth noting that Mark Schauer had all of these long before Walberg, with the exception of the Twitter feed.  So does this mean that Tim Walberg is pulling even with Mark Schauer on the internet? Well, no, not yet. On the brand new Walberg for Congress blog, there is exactly one post as of today. It's very nice, with photos and whatnot, but it came last Wednesday, and so far, there hasn't been any indication of any more activity. Contrast this with the Schauer blog, where Senator Schauer and his communications director have something new to say every day, including information that might actually be useful for supporters. On the Walberg for Congress YouTube channel, there is only one video, the first Walberg campaign ad. That's fine, because it'll get greater exposure for your ad and its message. But Mark Schauer's YouTube page has 16 videos so far. Of those, eight are of Schauer speaking directly to viewers and to voters, and another six are of public appearances where he's speaking about policy. Rather than five scripted lines and a motorcycle, Schauer is talking about the issues that people care about, and he's effectively using the medium. The point this, of course, is to show that Walberg's internet operation is still lacking compared to Schauer's. But it doesn't have to be. As much as I want to see Mark Schauer elected, I'd also like to see candidates in both parties effectively use technology to reach voters. Schauer's team is doing that. Walberg's team has all of the pieces in place, but hasn't bothered to use them yet. If they do, then we could have an exciting race on our hands. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Mark Schauer, Netroots, Tim Walberg Thursday, August 14, 2008 Freedom's Watch Robocalls; Schauer Challenges Walberg
This afternoon, a little after 3:00pm, I received a phone call... from Freedom's Watch. It was a robocall, repeating the same talking points from the deceptive and largely false radio ad they've been running (minus the RAND study citation).
These things are annoying, and frankly, I hope that bring out the robocalls this early in the election backfires on them. Nobody I've talked to has said that they like or appreciate these kinds of calls. At least when it's a person and when it's a campaign, you can voice your displeasure and be taken off the call list. These invade your privacy and threaten to repeat with no possible recourse. Then, I got this press release in my inbox: SCHAUER INVITES WALBERG TO JOIN HIM IN PLEDGE AGAINST ROBOCALLSThank you, Senator Schauer, for rejecting these sorts of attacks and this waste of time. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Energy, Freedom's Watch, Issues, Mark Schauer, Robocalls Monday, August 11, 2008 Schauer Introduces Energy Plan in Michigan Senate
While Tim Walberg is staging a protest in Washington, D.C. and waving his energy plan around on television, Democratic challenger and state Senator Mark Schauer introduced a bill in the Michigan Senate to do what he can do to increase energy production and create jobs:
Highlights of Schauer’s “Drill Responsibly-Create New Energy Jobs” include:As far as I can tell, the text of Schauer's bill isn't online yet. I'll add a link as soon as I can find it. We'll have to wait another day for more in-district media coverage, but the Chicago Tribune gives us this AP article: LANSING, Mich. - Oil and gas companies would pay Michigan higher royalty fees when leasing government-owned land under a plan by a top Democrat who wants to spend the extra revenue on renewable energy projects.I don't know enough about the proposal yet to speak intelligently on it. Chris Gautz at the Citizen Patriot seems to think investing the money in environmentally-friendly energy research isn't allowed by the state constitution, but I'm not sure if that's true or not. Even so, this is a good contrast to the Walberg energy plan, which is a "give everything to the oil companies" plan. It'll be interesting to see the coverage this gets moving forward. Labels: 2008 Election, Energy, Issues, Mark Schauer, Michigan Senate, Oil, Tim Walberg $40,000 DCCC Radio Ad Buy
Last week, I wrote about the factually inaccurate Freedom's Watch radio ad attacking Mark Schauer, and that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee would be responding. You can listen to their response.
Is this a serious ad buy? I'd say so: The committee is looking toward New York, where they scored big gains in 2006, with a small buy against Rep. Randy Kuhl; to Missouri, with a sizable $26,000 purchase in Republican Rep. Sam Graves' district; to Michigan, where Rep. Tim Walberg will be hit with the biggest buy, at almost $40,000; and even in Idaho, where cheap television rates mean the $11,000 spent against freshman Rep. Bill Sali could go a long way.(Emphasis added.) They're spending $175,000 across ten districts. Spending $40,000 in Michigan's 7th alone is significant. If you've heard either the Freedom's Watch ad or the DCCC ad, feel free to share what station and when in the comments. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, DCCC, Democratic Party, Freedom's Watch, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Friday, August 08, 2008 Green Party Nominates Lynn Meadows
Back in July, the Green Party of Michigan held its convention in Marshall, Michigan. As is often the case with minor parties, I completely forgot about it. Nevertheless, it is still worth reporting that at their meeting, they nominated Chelsea resident Lynn Meadows for Michigan's 7th Congressional District.
From what I can tell, Meadows is actually a fairly big name in the MI Greens, as the chair of the Tamarack Greens and having been their Secretary of State nominee in 2006. For that office, she won 70,218 votes statewide, or about 1.9 percent of the vote. Across the 7th District, she stayed fairly consistent, right around the two percent mark. So how will she fare as a congressional candidate? As the Secretary of State candidate, she out-performed the rest of the Green ticket in 2006-- their nominees for Senate and Governor each got less than one percent. However, she was also the only minor party candidate running for that office, which meant that the 1.9 percent that she earned included those who were simply dissatisfied with the Republican and Democratic Parties and wanted to voice their frustration in a low-profile race. The Green Party did not field a candidate in 2006, but in 2004, nominee Jason Seagraves took 1.3 percent of the vote, or 3,996 votes. It'll be interesting to see if Meadows runs a strong campaign this year. I'm not expecting her to break two percent, but, then again, that's still two percent in what could be a very close race. With this and Schauer's primary victory, we have our final November ballot: Tim Walberg (R-inc.) Mark Schauer (D) Ken Proctor (L) Lynn Meadows (G) As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization. Labels: 2004 Election, 2006 Election, 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Green Party, Lynn Meadows Wednesday, August 06, 2008 DCCC to Respond to Attacks
Following the "Freedom's Watch" radio ads, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will respond:
Michigan's 7th District is one of the 10 districts on the list. It's good to see someone call them out on their lies and distortions. The DCCC also has a website exposing "Freedom's Watch" and it's unsavory backers. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, DCCC, Freedom's Watch, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Independent Group Releases Attack Ad
That didn't take long...
"Freedom's Watch" is a 501(c)(4) group (website and DCCC counter-website) which has appeared this election year, mostly bashing Democrats and run by ex-Bush administration officials. Today, they released this radio ad: "70% of Americans are in favor of exploring for off shore oil, but Mark Schauer says no. Mark Schauer is against a bill that would expand domestic oil exploration, build new refineries, and increase wind energy. And he's endorsed by a liberal special interest group in favor of high gas prices. Schauer said expanding the search forAudio file here. Notice that they managed to work the word "liberal" in there. Will "JoeSchwarzIsALiberal.com" be replaced by "MarkSchauerIsALiberal.com"? That sounds like a tough attack that might stick, except that we get this from Schauer in the Daily Telegram yesterday: State Sen. Mark Schauer said Monday there needs to be compromise from both sides of the aisle on providing opportunities to assist Michigan’s economy.(Emphasis added.) In other words, Schauer supports offshore drilling, just not opening up everything, everywhere, the way Walberg does. If Tim Walberg thought there was oil in the Grand Canyon, I'm sure he'd toss out the tourists and start drilling. Unfortunately, in these sorts of debates, it's often the side that shouts the loudest that wins. Even so, Schauer has the much more reasonable position, and he's right when he says this isn't something we can drill our way out of. UPDATE: In addition to fixing a couple of typos, I wanted to point something else out. The ad says: As an elected official, Mark Schauer can do something, but he refuses to explore for oil here in the US.So, wait a second... Schauer currently serves in the state Senate, which means that he can do something, but only in the state of Michigan. When we're talking about offshore drilling, we mean in the Atlantic or the Pacific, and, since Michigan doesn't have coastline on either of those (at least, the last time I checked), he can't do anything about drilling offshore in his current job. That is, unless Freedom's Watch wants to drill in the Great Lakes. But everyone except for Tim Walberg agrees that drilling there is a horrible idea. UPDATE II: Eric B. at Michigan Liberal also responds, doing the research that was next on my list of things to do: This is a deceptive ad. It cites a study that's not talking about offshore drilling to attack Schauer on offshore drilling, even though Schauer already supports reasonable offshore drilling. Ahh! If this is what it'll be like until November, I might go a little crazy. Someone, please, please, please, write a letter to the editor refuting this crap, before it goes unchallenged for too long. As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Energy, Freedom's Watch, Issues, Mark Schauer, Oil, Tim Walberg Tuesday, August 05, 2008 Primary Election Results Thread - Schauer Wins
I'm finally home for the results. I'll be updating the results as I get them:
Michigan's 7th District - Democratic Party 342 of 342 Precincts Reporting (100%) Sharon Renier - 9,034 - 34% Mark Schauer - 17,268 - 66% Sources: Michigan Secretary of State Battle Creek Enquirer Lansing State Journal Daily Telegram Detroit News UPDATE: For county-by-county results: Branch County (.xls file) (Renier 310, Schauer 242; Walberg 4,909) Calhoun County (Renier 1,131, Schauer 6,538; Walberg 6,023) Eaton County (Renier 1,340, Schauer 1,852; Walberg 6,331) Hillsdale County (Renier 416, Schauer 325; Walberg 4,550) Jackson County Lenawee County Washtenaw County UPDATE II: For those curious, in the 2006 primary, the total Democratic vote was 19,753. Renier won with 10,402. UPDATE III: As counties finish counting, they're updating the Michigan Secretary of State page with totals. I'm adding in final results in each county, with the county winner in italics. UPDATE IV: The Schauer campaign claims victory: SCHAUER WINS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY, VOWS TO FIGHT FOR MICHIGAN JOBSUPDATE V: From the Jackson Citizen Patriot, Schauer and Renier react: "This is just one step toward winning this seat back," Schauer said. "We need to take this seat back from someone who is extremely out of touch with this district and with the needs of our state."and Renier, of Munith, said her apparent defeat is a loss for the people of Michigan.I understand that Sharon is frustrated, and I have nothing but respect for her and for the passion she brought to the race in 2004, 2006, and this year. I only hope that she eventually realizes that Senator Schauer is a solid progressive, a strong candidate, and a much better alternative than Tim Walberg. I'm done for the night. Democrats have a nominee. Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Mark Schauer, Sharon Renier Primary Election Open Thread
Polls have been open since 7:00am and close at 8:00pm. For information on voting, click here. To find your polling place, click here.
I might be a little late with results tonight, but you can see them yourself here. Share your primary election story. Did you vote for Walberg, Renier, or Schauer? If you're in Jackson County, who do you want to win the county clerk race? In Lenawee County, how about the sheriff's race? In Calhoun County, what do you think will happen in the state representatives candidates' primary? This is an exciting day. I'll be voting soon myself. UPDATE: For those interested, the Schauer campaign is holding a post-election party in Delta Township: WHO: Mark SchauerI'm not able to make it, but if any loyal readers are interested in going and reporting back, that'd be a great use of the "Submit Content" feature. No word yet about a Renier party. I'm actually going to go vote now. Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Mark Schauer, Republican Party, Sharon Renier, Tim Walberg Monday, August 04, 2008 Sharon Renier's Pre-Primary Fundraising
In addition to filing her second quarter report, Sharon Renier also filed a pre-primary report. The following represents the period from June 30 to July 16, 2008:
As of July 16, 2008, Sharon Renier had $3.46 cash-on-hand. Itemized receipts can be found here. She raised $1,740.00 through entry fees for "Votestock '08," and she contributed $2,800 to herself. She also received one $250 contribution from a supporter, and $465 worth of unitemized (under $200) contributions. Her disbursements can be found here. Most of Renier's spending was on "Votestock"-related fun, but she also had eight $5.00 overdraft fees from the bank handling her campaign funds. In other words, on eight occasions, she was spending money she didn't have. There's a part of me that admires Renier's commitment to getting money out of politics. At the same time, this sort of thing makes one doubt the sincerity of her campaign. Is she really interested in winning? 'Cause she can't do anything to change the country if she's not elected, and she won't be elected if she can't get her message out. That requires money. The primary is tomorrow. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Sharon Renier Mark Schauer's Pre-Primary Fundraising
I fell a little bit behind on this... I figured I should get it up before the primary (tomorrow).
Rather than file a second quarter report with the FEC only to file again a week and a half later, both Congressman Walberg and state Senator Schauer chose to combine their reports. The following covers Mark Schauer's fundraising in the period from April 01, 2008 to July 16, 2008:
Senator Schauer raised $424,604.48 in the three-and-a-half months covered here. Of that, $262,844.48 came from individuals and $161,760.00 came from PACs. Schauer has raised a total of $1,331,557.22 for this election cycle. After spending $403,755.66, he has $928,686.45 cash-on-hand. In addition to all of that, he raised another $20,000 in large contributions since the deadline. Itemized donors ($200+) can be found here. Disbursements can be found here. There's no other way to say it, Mark Schauer has a lot of money to play with. And against a primary opponent with $3.00 in the bank (that's the next post), it seems fairly likely that we'll see a Schauer-Walberg race in November. As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer Tuesday, July 29, 2008 Schauer Endorsed By AA News and Detroit Free Press
There have been two significant pre-primary endorsements, though both from out-of-district newspapers. First, the Ann Arbor News:
They also have some unkind things to say about Sharon Renier: It's puzzling how Renier, an organic farmer from Munith, has done so well in past Democratic primaries. We can only assume it's because most voters don't have the opportunity to talk to her directly. We did, and were taken aback by her virulent hostility toward Schauer and her extremist statements. As one example, she said she fears for our nation's sovereignty because our government is secretly working to create a North American Union, similar to the European Union. That claim is the kind of conspiracy theory that gets great play on the Internet, but isn't taken seriously elsewhere - nor should it be.Ouch. That seems... harsh. Meanwhile, the Detroit Free Press has this to say: District 7 (all or parts of seven counties in the south-central Lower Peninsula and the cities of Battle Creek, Jackson, Hillsdale, Coldwater, Adrian and Charlotte): State Sen. MARK SCHAUER of Battle Creek would be the strongest Democratic candidate against U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, R-Tipton, who was elected two years ago. Schauer, 46, is the Senate Democratic leader and a proven vote-getter in areas that lean Republican. He has been a thoughtful legislator, focused on protecting and creating jobs.So far, these are the only pre-primary newspaper endorsements I know about. Neither of these are all that unexpected, and I've got to think that these aren't endorsements Sharon Renier was really hoping to get. She's running an anti-establishment, "voice of the people" campaign that doesn't rely on traditional campaigning or endorsements from institutions like unions or newspapers. Endorsements like this reinforce the idea that Schauer is just "more of the same," as Renier claims. At the same time, this has to hurt Renier... a lot. She's got a serious cash disadvantage, and without the ability to put out her own message, she needs free or low-cost alternatives to break through. I've already written about how she's not using the internet (though, apparently, she claims she is), and a major newspaper endorsement could boost her campaign significantly. If she can't manage any endorsements, she misses one of her few opportunities. As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization. NOTE: This disclaimer was added a few days late... I keep forgetting to add it at the end. Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Sharon Renier Dueling Polls
Via Swing State Project, which was via Hotline, the Walberg campaign released an internal poll:
Mark Schauer (D): 31Margin of Error +/- 5.7%, over July 8th and 9th, surveying 300 "likely voters" conducted by National Research. I have a few thoughts on this poll. For starters, it doesn't look good. Walberg leading by 16 points hurts. Obviously, we (meaning both the Schauer campaign and concerned voters in general) need to do a better job. At the same time, there are some things that make me a little suspicious of whether or not this is actually the real state of the race. This is an internal poll, commissioned for Tim Walberg, but that doesn't mean it isn't accurate. It's not in their interest to get bad data. However, they do get to sit on it for as long as they want without showing it to the media, which they did. The poll was taken early in July, and they kept it quiet until they had a bad news cycle (with Schauer outraising Walberg again). That means that this could be one of multiple polls they've commissioned over the last few months. It's in their interest to only release favorable polls, so they can just sit the results they're getting until they get one that looks good. It's not dishonest and it's still statistically accurate-- for those that recall their high school math classes, you know that one in twenty polls will be off by more than the margin of error. That's just statistics. So, I don't doubt that Walberg is leading or that his campaign got that data in their poll. All I doubt is whether that's the only data they have. They probably have other polls taken other times that aren't nearly as favorable, but decided to release this one. I don't believe that Tim Walberg is leading by 16 points. -------------------- So, I thought I posted the above last night. Apparently, Blogger disagreed, and I went to bed not knowing that it didn't show up, nor did other things I had written. Hrm. I discovered this a few minutes ago, moments after I also discovered another internal poll in my inbox, this time conducted for the Schauer campaign. For this one, I have a little more information. This poll was conducted by Meyers Research & Strategic Services over May 8 to 15, 2008, surveying 600 "likely voters." The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percent. When asked about the Schauer-Walberg match-up, the poll found: Mark Schauer (D): 37When undecided voters were "allocated to candidates based on their self-described partisan leanings," it was: Mark Schauer (D): 45They also tested two other races. Incumbent Democratic Senator Carl Levin leads Republican Jack Hoogendyk by 15 percent and Senators Barack Obama and John McCain are tied in the district at 42 percent each. Other findings, from pollster Andrew Myers: On other key measures Walberg also proves wounded. Walberg’s re-elect is an abysmal 35 percent, with one-third of voters saying they would prefer someone new (33 percent), and perceptions of his job performance remain net negative as well, with just 34 percent saying he is doing an excellent to good job, while a plurality, 42 percent, say fair to poor.(Emphasis added.) So, where does this leave us? Obviously, the same notes on the Walberg poll above apply here. The Schauer campaign sat on this until they needed it-- this time, for two-and-a-half months. As far as the actual state of the race, I'm inclined to think that it's closer to three points than sixteen. Chances are, Walberg's lead is somewhere in the five to 10 range. But Eric at Michigan Liberal picks out the other significant finding: I don't put a great deal of stock in polling, especially 100 days out and super especially internal polls. The story here, I think, is that not even Walberg's own internal polling has him above 50 percent, which is just not good news for him especially since he's being outraised.(Emphasis added.) He's right about that. An incumbent under the 50 percent has a metaphorical target painted on his back. If the national Republican Party is forced to prioritize which seats they're going to defend, they're not going to pick the guy whose own polls show him doing badly. Now, what we really need is some independent and transparent polling. There are a lot of questions that could be asked about the candidates and the issues, and I'd love to see a county-by-county breakdown of the race. I'd do it myself, but I'm only one man! As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization. NOTE: This disclaimer was added a few days late... I keep forgetting to add it at the end. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Mark Brewer, Poll, Tim Walberg Thursday, July 24, 2008 Pre-Primary Candidate Events
Bumped. See update below. -- Fitzy
With the primary less than two weeks away, I thought I would briefly highlight the upcoming candidate events in the 7th District. Partly, this is to remind everyone of the nifty candidate event map now on Walberg Watch, but mostly, I wanted to let everyone know where they can find the three major-party candidates-- Walberg, Schauer, and Renier-- in the run-up to the election. There's no better way to judge a candidate than to meet him or her face to face. That was the goal, anyway. Unfortunately, judging from their websites, the only candidate holding any events between now and the primary (August 5) is Mark Schauer. Between now and the primary, Senator Schauer is holding July 28 - Schauer: Chelsea Town Hall (5:30pm) - Chelsea Depot, 125 Jackson St.Sharon Renier's website still links to "Votestock," which was July 12, and here's what Tim Walberg's "Upcoming Events" page says: Upcoming EventsI mean, I know that you don't have a primary opponent, Congressman Walberg, but you could at least pretend to care! Meanwhile, Mark Schauer will be all over the district holding town hall events. These sorts of events are great, because it gives you a chance to ask about anything on your mind. Are you a Democrat who wants to know more? Come get to know the candidate! Are you a Republican and Schwarz supporter that doesn't like Walberg, but you're suspicious of Democrats? Come see if Schauer can reassure you! You can ask him anything you want! Really, I'm a big fan of this sort of thing. I know I'll definitely be at the Lenawee County town hall. UPDATE: I'm bumping this post back up to the top, because I really do feel that getting a chance to meet candidates is much, much more important than fundraising data. And, as if in answer to my post (though I doubt it very much), the Walberg campaign updated their "Upcoming Events" page: Upcoming EventsNote that only the Chelsea Summerfest appearance is actually before the primary, so only it really falls under the subject of this post. He'll be in downtown Chelsea on Saturday from 2pm to 4pm. Walberg's Jackson Campaign Kickoff, meanwhile, will be the Thursday after the primary from 7pm to 9pm. He promises ice cream, which means I may be forced to skip my other plans for that night and attend. Meanwhile, Senator Schauer announced another town hall, which I have added to the original post above. This one will be in Battle Creek the day before the primary. As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Sharon Renier, Tim Walberg Mark Schauer Out-Raises Walberg... Again
Senator Schauer's pre-primary FEC report isn't on the internet yet, though I'm sure it will be by tomorrow. However, the campaign did send out this press release:
SCHAUER BREAKS OWN RECORD FOR FUNDRAISING IN 7TH DISTRICTIt'll be interesting to see all the details. This really is an incredible amount of money for a challenger to be raising. As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer Tim Walberg's Pre-Primary Fundraising
Rather than file a second quarter report with the FEC only to file again a week and a half later, both Congressman Walberg and state Senator Schauer chose to combine their reports. The following covers Tim Walberg's fundraising in the period from April 01, 2008 to July 16, 2008:
Congressman Walberg raised $364,924.50 in the three-and-a-half months covered here. Of that, $157,366.75 came from individual donors, with the bulk of it-- $130,352.26-- coming in contributions of $200 or more. It's worth noting that over half of Walberg's receipts-- $197,172.20-- came from Political Action Committees, plus another $8,902.80 from other candidates. For the entire election cycle, Walberg has raised a total of $1,188,737.72. After spending $114,253.70 in this period, Walberg has $855,137.34 cash-on-hand. This period also included both NRCC chair Tom Cole's visit and the Livonia fundraiser with President George W. Bush. Congressman Walberg's itemized receipts (over $200) can be found here. Here are some committee contributions that I found interesting:
Congressman Walberg's disbursements can be found here. For the most part, they all seem pretty straight-forward. Overall, this was a fair quarter for Walberg. He took in $365,000, though most of that didn't come from individual donors. Unfortunately, he was out-raised once again by his leading Democratic opponent. That always bodes badly for an incumbent congressman. As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Tim Walberg Wednesday, July 23, 2008 Ad Hits Walberg on Head Start
Big news today:
This is, of course, something I've covered before, and I even dedicated a Walberg Watch Video of the Week to the subject. But it's always great to see a legitimate group go after Walberg on this issue. Here's the ad: And, for my own ego, here's the Walberg Watch video: Obviously, theirs is much, much better. As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Education, Head Start, Tim Walberg Tuesday, July 22, 2008 Internet Campaigning - Schauer Leads Pack
Given the fact that I started this website and am active in the Michigan and national blogosphere, I'm assuming that its pretty obvious that I think internet-based political campaigning is both important and an exciting development in politics. You can reach potential voters more cheaply than traditional mailings, you can do it without bothering people with "robocalls," and you can target voting groups that might not ordinarily be recipients of the standard direct mail and door-to-door campaigns (especially young people). It's simply too good of an opportunity to pass up. Back in October of 2007, I wrote up an overview of the internet operations of Mark Schauer, Sharon Renier, and Tim Walberg. That piece was in the context of something Jerome Armstrong wrote last year for the New Politics Institute, a memo which still serves as a strong set of guidelines for any campaign that wants to use the internet. While the whole thing is worth reading, I will share here only the six recommendations I mentioned last time: Six Things You Can Do Now(Yes, he numbered them wrong. I'm sure that Jerome will proof-read more closely next time.) Last time around, I went through and offered my thoughts on each candidate in the context of each recommendation. I'm not going to do that again, but it's important to have these recommendations in mind. This time, I'd just like to share the state of the internet race as it stands now, and offer some thoughts. Ken Proctor - Libertarian Nominee I'm starting with Ken Proctor because he has, by far, the worst website of the bunch. Why is that? For starters, it's still got the "thank you" message from his last run for office, when he ran against Bart Stupak in the 1st Congressional District. Unlike Ron Paul, whose supporters managed to tap into the strong libertarian leanings of many on the internet, Ken Proctor has done little to take advantage of that energy. Frankly, I'm not surprised. I just didn't want to leave anyone out. Tim Walberg - Republican Incumbent (Presumptive nominee) I can't figure Tim Walberg out. On the one hand, he's been quick to embrace all of the appearances of taking internet-based campaigning seriously. He has his own blog on his official House website, he's reached out to RightMichigan.com, Townhall.com, and uses The Hill's congressional blog. Now, he even has a Facebook page, which currently has 283 supporters. From all of this, it looks like he's taking the internet seriously. ... Then there's his campaign website. Honestly, it's horrible. It's not just the low-resolution .jpg images in the top sidebar, though that always bugs me. The design is counter-intuitive, the front page is kind of empty, and the content is lacking. (Only four issues, and each with less than two paragraphs of text? Only one press release? No photos?) Really, Congressman? Is that the best you can come up with? But it's worse than that. The campaign website has nothing of the "Web 2.0" innovations that have made online activism so interesting. There is no video, even though his press office has made an effort to put some videos on YouTube. There's no blog and there's nothing to allow any user or voter feedback. Every so often, they update their "Upcoming Events," but usually, that section is empty. There's nothing dynamic or interesting about it, and every page is static and, frankly, boring. The purpose of the Walberg for Congress website is not to engage voters. Instead, it's designed to serve as a repository for press releases-- except that they haven't bothered to put any up yet. Sharon Renier - Democratic Candidate Sadly, as disappointing as Walberg's website was, Sharon Renier's is a step lower. Although she has written a great deal about the issues, she lacks the same features I mention above. Her "News/Press" page only has one story and her "Events" page is still a .pdf flyer for "Votestock," which is now over. Even Walberg updates his "Upcoming Events" some of the time! For Renier, whose campaign doesn't have a lot of money to work with, a strong internet presence would be a valuable investment. Not only is it cheap, but it has the potential of bringing in more contributions. I just don't get why Proctor, Walberg, and Renier haven't put more time into this. Mark Schauer - Democratic Candidate Mark Schauer, on the other hand, has been doing it right. His website, though a little cluttered, is aesthetically pleasing and has plenty of pages linked from it. But it's not just content in the form of issue positions and press releases. There are numerous features that keep a casual viewer on the page-- video, action items, and even a form for you to share your thoughts on issues. This is in addition to the Facebook page (with 403 supporters as of today). Simply put, Schauer's website isn't boring, and it'll keep people interested and on it. It sounds su | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||