From 7:00pm to 9:00pm, I'm going to be away from a computer-- and, in fact, away from any televisions, radios, or other devices which report election results. During arguably the most exciting portion of the night, when Virginia may be called for Obama, or when the returns start coming in for the Georgia Senate race, or when our own district begins reporting, I won't be able to be a part of it.

For a political junkie like me, that's like missing the World Series, the Rose Bowl (Go 'Cats! I believe in you!), and the World Cup all at once, which, by the way, are also on Christmas. Tomorrow could be a really amazing day, and I’m disappointed that I’ll be missing a big part of it.

But when I do get to a computer, I’ll be looking for a few things. I don't claim to have a secret formula or know which tiny town will be the bellwether, and I'm definitely not a Grebner-like expert. But I can tell you what I think a Schauer victory might look like, and where I’ll be looking for it.

Turnout in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties

With 98 percent of Michigan's voting population registered, there are a lot of people who could show up to vote. That’s got to worry Tim Walberg, whose victory in the 2006 GOP primary was thanks to what former Congressman Joe Schwarz called a "motivated minority" of 7.8 percent in a low-turnout primary. (Schwarz also called them "quasi-theocrats... infiltrating the party power structure"). Granted, a general election is very different from a primary, but a Walberg victory will depend on certain people not showing up, namely in Calhoun County, where Mark Schauer could run up the margin.

But Walberg has someone working against him: Barack Obama. The Obama campaign has done a phenomenal job of registering new voters who are trending Democratic. But they didn't ask prospective voters for a partisan affiliation before they registered them, nor should they have. In a Republican-leaning district, is it possible that the Obama campaign might have just registered a bunch of new Republicans?

Maybe, but judging from where the new voters are coming from, probably not. With help from the Detroit Free Press (who got the data from the Michigan Secretary of State), here's a fun table:

County Reg. Voters New Voters % Change (Jan. - Oct.)
Branch 31,805 683 +2%
Calhoun* 103,707 3,950 +4%
Eaton 80,023 2,781 +4%
Hillsdale 33,327 724 +2%
Jackson 115,357 4,672 +4%
Lenawee 71,552 2,170 +3%
Washtenaw* 273,955 24,962 +10%

Note that both Calhoun and Washtenaw Counties have portions not in the 7th District. This is especially important in Washtenaw County, where Ann Arbor (and the University of Michigan) probably accounts for most of the voters and most of the growth. However, Battle Creek, which is in the district, is the major population center for Calhoun County, and is probably responsible for most of that growth. So for our simplified purposes here, let's ignore Washtenaw County but keep Calhoun County.

As you can see, the most new voters were added in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties (both in absolute number of voters and in proportion to their populations). Calhoun County is generally considered safe territory for Mark Schauer, who has represented the voters there in the state House and Senate since 1996 and is generally very popular. Jackson and Eaton Counties, meanwhile, are the major "battlegrounds." Not only are they vote-rich, but they were divided pretty evenly in the 2006 election (Eaton: Renier 50 Walberg 48; Jackson: Walberg 51 Renier 46). Although Schauer currently represents much of Jackson County in the state Senate, I’m expecting it to be a major battleground again. Neglected in the voter registration drives were the Walberg strongholds of Branch and Hillsdale Counties, and to a lesser degree, Lenawee County (more on it in a minute).

I don't have solid data behind me, but I'm going to guess that if they turn out to vote, the new voters in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties will break Democratic. If they were registered by the Obama folks, they were probably targeted as students or underrepresented populations, which is probably good news for Mark Schauer. At least, that’s what I'm hoping.

In 2006, Calhoun County had 47.5 percent turnout, Eaton County had 59.9 percent turnout, and Jackson County had 51.8 percent turnout (data here and here). If turnout is higher than that in those three counties (and especially Calhoun County), new voters and Schauer loyalists could run up enough of a margin to offset losses in the southern part of the district. If the turnout is really big in Calhoun County, that might be the whole ball game.

Is that a possibility? Could central-west Michigan see a massive surge in turnout? I don’t know, but it sounds like Kalamazoo County (one west from Calhoun County) is getting ready for one:

KALAMAZOO -- Bracing for a very long and very busy Tuesday, area election officials say they're "as ready as we'll ever be" for the 2008 presidential election.

"We're in good shape," Kalamazoo County Clerk Tim Snow said. "We've been preparing for this all year. We knew this was going to be big."

A surge in voter registrations and predictions of a higher rate of participation means the county could have as many as 144,000 voters this year, compared to the 120,000 who cast ballots four years ago.

The city of Kalamazoo, in particular, has taken steps to avoid long lines Tuesday, putting in a minimum of 14 voting stations at each precinct and substantially increasing the staffing.

[...]

On Tuesday, polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. People who are in line at 8 p.m. will be allowed to vote. The forecast calls for sunny skies and a high near 70 degrees.

Lenawee County

This is where Tim Walberg should win. He represented Lenawee County for 16 years in the state House of Representatives, and the mostly rural county is famous (or infamous) for its conservative politics and sometimes frightening tendencies. (Anyone else remember "Radio Free Lenawee"?) This is where I'm from, and I can say that it is a conservative place.

At the same time, though, people don't really like Tim Walberg all that much. Oh, sure, some do. Whenever I was canvassing, I was bound to run into someone who would say, "I plan to vote for Tim, I’ve known him for years" or something like that. But I'd also meet someone who'd say, "Walberg? I can’t believe we keep electing that guy!" The solidly-Republican state House seat Walberg vacated has been in Democratic hands (albeit moderate ones) for ten years. With state Representative Dudley Spade basically guaranteed reelection, it'll stay that way for at least two more years.

Meanwhile, the county is changing. Before the economy got really bad, a lot of people were moving out to Clinton or Tecumseh from Ann Arbor or metro Detroit for the cheaper properties, willing to put up with the couple-hour commute. They don’t have a relationship with Tim Walberg, and some of them are even (gasp) Democrats.

And the Schauer campaign has taken the county seriously, opening an office in downtown Adrian and hiring a full-time field organizer to staff it and coordinate with the Obama and Spade campaigns. Whenever he's in the county, Mark Schauer is certain to mention his great relationship with Doug and Dudley Spade, both of whom carry a lot of weight. (Side note: Their secret to success? They're actually really good representatives. If you go to Dudley Spade with a problem, he'll do everything he can to solve it.) Throw in the Obama organizers, and you've got a real chance for 2008 to be a year of Democratic revival in Lenawee County.

Will Mark Schauer win it? ... No. It just won't happen. But he can keep it close. Governor Jennifer Granholm managed to take 47 percent of the vote in 2006, and if Schauer can get a similar share of the vote and hold Walberg to 51 or 52 percent, it could mean a lot. If Schauer opens up a big lead in Calhoun County and Washtenaw County, then there just aren’t enough voters in Branch and Hillsdale Counties to make up for it. Walberg needs to win Lenawee County convincingly. If Lenawee County is as tight as the other "battlegrounds," it's going to be a rough night for Tim Walberg.

And what if Mark Schauer wins Lenawee County? Then short of something really unexpected happening, Schauer will win the district. But like I said, Schauer won't win Lenawee County. I'm not going to let my hopes get that high.

Obama

Barack Obama is going to win the state of Michigan. The only question left is "How big?" Since John McCain pulled out of Michigan, it's started to look pretty big. Here's the Pollster.com chart for Michigan:



That's quite a sight, isn't it? The final Pollster average puts it at Obama +16, which would be a bigger margin than Bill Clinton’s +13 win in 1996. That year, with the help of Ross Perot, Bill Clinton carried four of the counties that currently make up the 7th District: Calhoun, Washtenaw, Lenawee, and Branch. Calhoun and Washtenaw are to be expected, but Lenawee and Branch surprised me when I looked back at them. After all, these are supposed to be the conservative parts of the district.

Supposing Obama has similar success, picking up Calhoun, western Washtenaw, and at least one other county, is there any way Mark Schauer can lose? I'm not sure what the Obama-Walberg voter looks like, and I'd be shocked to see Obama carrying Jackson County by a wide margin but Schauer losing it. Maybe it's possible, but Mark Schauer has done a good job presenting himself as a moderate and a hard-working, dependable public servant. If Obama wins big, I can't imagine any reason for the Obama voter to choose "more of the same" and Tim Walberg.

*****

Upon re-reading all of that, I'm worried that I'm being too optimistic and tempting fate for another disappointing election night. It's possible. Even so, and despite not having any idea of what I'm doing, I think that most of my reasoning has some foundation to it. I think one of the three factors above (if not all of them) could contribute to a Schauer victory.

That's what I'll be looking for, sometime around 9:15pm Eastern Time. It's possible that there will be a clear leader by the time I arrive on the scene. We'll see soon enough if any of this is right.

Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Barack Obama, Dudley Spade, John McCain, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg

I just wanted to make sure you all knew I was still here. I'll have more later, but a couple of quick items:

- Mark Schauer was endorsed by People for the American Way, and is now the beneficiary of a fundraising competition. If you've been thinking about contributing to Schauer's campaign, consider contributing with them, showing your support for activists nationwide to see.

- There's been some excitement in presidential politics. Just as a reminder, here's what Barack Obama has been doing to support Mark Schauer:



... And here's what John McCain has been doing to support Tim Walberg:

LANSING, Mich.-- Republican John McCain's decision to halt his Michigan campaign has left a hole in state GOP efforts and uncertainty hanging over the re-election chances of two congressmen.

U.S. Reps. Joe Knollenberg of Oakland County's Bloomfield Township and Tim Walberg of Tipton both face well-financed Democratic challengers, and turnout could be key in their elections.

I'll probably write more about this later.

What else is happening today?

Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg

As we get closer to Election Day, I'm hoping to spend some more time on other races that will be appearing on the ballot, and how they relate to the 7th District race. That is, I won't be arguing in favor of Barack Obama or against John McCain, but I will be writing about how the presidential race might have an impact on Tim Walberg's reelection bid. I gave a very general overview of state House races back in May for similar reasons. After all, this election isn't taking place in a vacuum.

When it comes to races that could have the biggest impact on the 7th District outcome, you have to list the presidential race at the top. Michigan is an important swing state, and both the McCain and Obama campaigns will be running massive voter turnout efforts. But today, I'd like to focus more on the role of Senator John McCain as a candidate and his relationship with Tim Walberg.

Let's start with what Senator McCain and Congressman Walberg have in common: they're Republicans. After that, it gets a little bit trickier. Recall this article from 2004 about Walberg and Joe Schwarz:

The 7th District is one of this year's most hotly contested Congressional primary races, where Congressman Nick Smith is retiring from his longtime seat. It is a secure Republican post, so whoever wins the August 3 primary will win the election. The six-way Republican race features three moderates with extensive legislative experience, a man without any sort of political experience, a man with a radically liberal record named Joe Schwarz, and a proven conservative statesman named Tim Walberg.

[...]

Schwarz, a former Michigan legislator and chairman of John McCain's victorious Michigan primary race in 2000, is a fiscal liberal and a social liberal. He has the touted endorsement of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a wealthy coalition of so-called RINOs — Republicans in Name Only — who identify themselves in their mission statement as the "pragmatic center." Even the League of Conservation Voters, left-wing endorser of Clinton, Gore, and Kerry, has wildly thrown itself behind Schwarz's candidacy.

All in all, Joe Schwarz does not belong in the Republican Party. He is a Democrat at heart, and a socialist at mind. At a recent candidate debate, Schwarz demonstrated that he is thoroughly pro-abortion, warmly in favor of universal federal health care, and enthusiastic about increased federal spending for higher education.

(Emphasis added.)

Most of that article was Schwarz-bashing, but it was fairly representative of the types of attacks we saw throughout 2004 and 2006. You introduce Joe Schwarz as the chairman of the Michigan campaign of John McCain in 2000, and then you talk about how horribly liberal he is.

To Michigan conservatives and Republicans, the fact that Joe Schwarz ran McCain's Michigan campaign brings back unpleasant memories of the 2000 primary. Then-Governor John Engler promised to deliver Michigan to George W. Bush. Instead, the opposite happened, and McCain won. As the New York Times reported:

Mr. Engler said today's results said ''nothing whatsoever'' about Mr. McCain's ability to attract Democrats. Instead, he argued that Democrats, glimpsing an opportunity after Mr. McCain won in New Hampshire, worked to make mischief in the Michigan primary. Mr. Engler's aides said their evidence of Democratic efforts for Mr. McCain was anecdotal.

[...]

There was evidence in the polls of voters as they left the ballot booth that Mr. Engler's endorsement hurt Mr. Bush as much as it helped him. Of the 15 percent of voters who said that Mr. Engler's endorsement had influenced them a great deal, fully seven in ten voted for Mr. McCain. Of the 15 percent who said Mr. Engler's endorsement had influenced them ''somewhat,'' 65 percent voted for Mr. Bush and 33 percent for Mr. McCain.

[...]

Mr. Engler is extremely popular among Republicans, having served all of the 1990's as governor and most of the 1980's as president of the state senate.

(Emphasis added.)

To many Michigan conservatives, it seemed as if John McCain had conspired with Michigan Democrats to embarrass their governor and their preferred presidential candidate. CNN exit polls showed that 17 percent of voters that day were Democrats, and 82 percent supported McCain. He also beat then-Governor Bush 67 to 26 among independents (35 percent of voters) and lost to Bush 29 to 66 among actual Republicans.

So, the evidence was there that McCain only won because of Democratic and independent mischief-makers. And who could they logically conclude was the architect of that strategy? Why, Michigan campaign chairman Joe Schwarz, of course!

Regardless of the truth to that allegation, it served as a reason to dislike both Schwarz and McCain, two men who were old friends who used (at the time) a similar, moderate rhetoric. And don't forget that McCain endorsed Joe Schwarz in both 2004 and 2006, and to Walberg's supporters, Joe Schwarz was and still is the enemy.

I don't want to spend too much time on this point, but it's worth emphasizing. Tim Walberg and Joe Schwarz each represented a wing of the Republican Party-- two wings that, for whatever reason, can't stand each other. McCain is closely associated with Joe Schwarz, and many of the folks that cheer on Tim Walberg will either never support John McCain or will only do so out of hatred of Barack Obama.

----

Now, let's jump forward to 2008. Senator John McCain is the presumptive nominee for the Republican Party. Given the overall dissatisfaction with the Republican presidential field in this election's primaries, I wasn't surprised to see this in 2007:

RM: Real quick before you have to run, have you made an endorsement in the Presidential Primary? Will you make an endorsement?

CTW [Congressman Tim Walberg]: I have not. I probably will keep my powder dry until we have our nominee. The Republican side, there's much to respect with each of them. There are some who have issues that I would like to see changed but when I compare them to any on the Democrat side, people ought to believe me when I say this, it's not just because I'm a Republican, but their issues are so so different from the positions I take on almost anything I'm very encouraged that when we actually get a candidate on both sides the American people and my district, the 7th District people will make the right decision.

Walberg didn't endorse when it mattered, but

I vaguely remember seeing something about Walberg endorsing McCain, but I can't seem to find an article confirming that. If he did, it was only after McCain had secured the nomination, when he would have been expected to endorse.

But beyond that, can we find any other indication of what the political relationship between Tim Walberg and John McCain might be?

On this website and elsewhere, Tim Walberg's relationship with the Club for Growth has been well-documented. To make a long story short, Walberg received an enormous amount of money from the Club in 2006, and has voted pretty consistently in the interests of the Club. They specialize in purging the Republican Party of moderates and replacing them with, well, people like Tim Walberg.

Here's what John McCain says about the Club for Growth:


And here's what the Club for Growth says about John McCain:

Club for Growth President Pat Toomey said this week that his economically conservative group might sit out the 2008 presidential election and focus on congressional races.

The Club has had an antagonistic relationship over the years with Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the GOP candidate for president. With the general-election match-up now set, Toomey is confronted with this dilemma.

This stings, and it's not just because the Club for Growth spent millions of dollars during the 2004 election cycle, largely bashing Democrats. The Club is a major Republican group, and is expected to endorse as a matter of courtesy, even if they focus on congressional races anyway. Not endorsing is a significant story about divisions within the Republican Party.

And, of course, Walberg is a favorite of the Club.

But that's just one organization. Are there any other prominent supporters of Tim Walberg who are a little hesitant to support John McCain?

Well, yes.

In 2006, then-candidate Walberg was proud to receive the endorsement of James Dobson. What does Dobson say about John McCain?

I cannot, and will not, vote for Sen. John McCain, as a matter of conscience.

... And that's when he's being nice about it!

So, Walberg's supporters aren't willing to do much for McCain. Is there any evidence that McCain will be willing to do anything for Walberg?

Nope.

John McCain has begun to raise eyebrows in Republican circles for his lack of fundraising help on behalf of his party’s House and Senate campaign committees.

The Arizona senator has yet to send a fundraising appeal for those committees nearly four months after becoming his party’s presumptive nominee, and he skipped out on a major fundraising dinner for them in recent weeks.

Obviously, this isn't a personal snub against Tim Walberg, but if John McCain isn't willing to do down-ticket fundraising, then it bodes badly for endangered Republicans like Tim Walberg. He would ordinarily be counting on the top of the ticket for support, but if the article from the Hill above is any indication, McCain will be focusing all of his attention on saving his own campaign, not someone like Tim Walberg-- especially someone whose supporters have had a history of hostility toward McCain.

In the end, Walberg and McCain will need each other, and if Walberg can cling to the McCain campaign, it might help him a lot. But Walberg's side very obviously hates McCain (or at least doesn't trust him). That doesn't bode well for a productive political relationship.

Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Club for Growth, Fundraising, James Dobson, John McCain, Tim Walberg

Promoted back to the top... It's in the subscription-only MIRS today, but you can read a longer, (presumably) earlier draft of the article at Tim Skubick's blog. - Fitzy

It really didn't look very likely that Joe Schwarz would run again, but for those of you still holding out hope, journalist Tim Skubick brings us this:

Although the drop-dead date for filing for office is not until May, former Michigan Congressman John Schwarz is politically dropping dead before that. He will not run to regain his seat he lost to conservative Tim Walberg last time out in the Battle Creek area.

Caught on the state senate floor on Wednesday, Schwarz was asked if he would run?

"I don't think so. My plate is pretty darn full right now. It would probably be inappropriate to get in a congressional race now," he reveals for the first time.

and

He notes that the democrats have "a candidate" and as for an independent bid he laughs, "The road to higher office is strewn with the bodies of people who have run as independents."

Schwarz says he "came close but not close enough" to re-entering the contest but in the end, what he termed his "philosophical difference" with the core republican party in Michigan, kept him out of the hunt.

Schwarz says his dream job is to be Secretary of the Navy in a McCain administration. "I've thought about it, but not talked about it" with his buddy McCain who is the GOP nominee for president.

So, from the looks of it, Joe Schwarz just isn't interested in going through it again. And who can blame him? After decades of service, conservative members of his own party trashed his record and defeated him in a bitter, divisive primary. A life-long Republican, Schwarz now says he has trouble calling himself a member of the party.

As for Schwarz as Secretary of the Navy, I have no doubt he'd be well-suited to the role. However, given the condition that John McCain is elected president for that to happen, I'm kind of hoping he doesn't get that dream job. But that's presidential politics, and not what this blog is about.

This more or less settles the race into Walberg versus Schauer/Renier, with no other likely variables. However, this could change if someone like Clark Bisbee decides to challenge Walberg in the primary.

Clark (and other potential challengers), you have until May 13 by 4:00PM.

Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Joe Schwarz, John McCain, Moderate Republicans, Republican Party, Tim Walberg

President Bush is looking to increase troop strength in Iraq. Not sure where he got this idea. Does not seem to have much support. This from the Huffington Post,

"the No. 2 U.S. commander in Iraq conceded Sunday that a military "surge" escalation would not be enough to rescue Iraq"

The Republican Party seems to be fractured on what to do in Iraq. John McCain is on the same page as the president as both look to increase the number of troops in Iraq. Former General Wesley Clark thinks this is a mistake.

Without such fundamental change in Washington's approach, there is little hope that the troops surge, Iraqi promises and accompanying rhetoric will amount to anything other than "stay the course more". That wastes lives and time, perpetuates the appeal of the terrorists, and simply brings us closer to the showdown with Iran. And that will be a tragedy for not just Iraq but our friends in the region as well.

There is more and more evidence that the Republicans are split over what to do in Iraq. What does Mr. Walberg think? During the campaign he supported the President. Does he still? If you live in the 7th District write Tim Walberg and ask him what his position on Iraq is. Go to http://www.house.gov/writerep/ and fill in the form.

Labels: Iraq, John McCain, Tim Walberg, Wes Clark