WALBERG LIES ABOUT SUPPORT FOR PRIVATIZING SOCIAL SECURITY AT ADRIAN DEBATE
Schauer has a clear record of fighting to protect guaranteed Social Security benefitsBATTLE CREEK—During last night’s debate at Siena Heights University in Adrian, Congressman Tim Walberg once again lied about his stance on Social Security, saying, “I have never taken a position to privatize Social Security.” In fact, less than a month ago Walberg told the Jackson Citizen Patriot that he, “supports giving future workers the option of saving part of their payroll taxes in personal accounts.” [Citizen Patriot, 9/9/08]
Such a policy would slash benefits by more than 40 percent for future retirees, replace guaranteed Social Security benefits with risky private accounts, drain trillions of dollars from the Social Security Trust Fund, and increase America’s debt to foreign nations by about $5 trillion over 20 years. [http://www.cbpp.org/12-17-04socsec.pdf; http://www.cbpp.org/5-1-06socsec.htm]
“Tim Walberg can call it whatever he wants, but the bottom line is that private accounts would effectively kill Social Security as we know it,” said Schauer spokesman Zack Pohl. “At a time when the financial meltdown has cost more than $2 trillion in lost retirement funds, working families and seniors can’t afford to put Wall Street CEOs in charge of our Social Security benefits.”
Background:
Walberg also supported private accounts for Social Security during his 2006 campaign: "I support efforts to expand our ownership society by allowing younger workers to voluntarily invest a portion of their payroll taxes and allowing the money to be secured in personal investment accounts. Once the system is fully transitioned into personal investment accounts, the system will involve real savings and real rates of return.” [Detroit News, 7/17/06]
Walberg has received more than $1 million in campaign support from the extreme Club for Growth, a group that also supports personal retirement accounts for Social Security. [Club for Growth Press Release, 8/8/06; www.clubforgrowth.org/about.php]
In March 2005, Vice President Dick Cheney visited Battle Creek to support President Bush's plan to privatize Social Security. That same week, Sen. Schauer hosted a town hall meeting with Congressman Sandy Levin to oppose Bush's privatization efforts. [http://www.woodtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=3122588&nav=0RceXskT]
According to the Social Security Office of Policy Data, there are roughly 126,552 seniors in the 7th district who receive Social Security benefits. [http://www.socialsecurity.gov/policy/docs/factsheets/cong_stats/2007/]
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Friday, November 07, 2008 Schauer Victory Speech and What's Next
The Schauer campaign put Congressman-elect Schauer's victory speech on YouTube. The speech was given sometime shortly after 1:00am, Wednesday, November 5.
The quote at the end of the video is a good one, but I just wanted to highlight one other thing he said: Politics is about competing visions, but governing is about people coming together for a common purpose, and I intend to help govern.This is one of the reasons I like Mark Schauer-- he sees this distinction. It's what allows him to campaign as a proud Democrat, but still work with, say, Republican Joe Schwarz to save the Battle Creek Air National Guard base. It's what let him set aside the politics of the state budget crisis and make some tough decisions and compromise-- angering both conservatives and the all-important MEA-- in order to keep our state running. It's not about ideology, it's about making government work for people and solving problems. That's the hard part. That's what's next for Mark Schauer. Thank you to the kind comments I've received-- including from Walberg supporters. This is by no means the end of Walberg Watch, though its name will probably be changing sometime soon. We've got a state Senate race coming up soon to replace the vacancy Senator Schauer created, and it's one where Democrats need to hold on. We've got the state legislators and the county and city governments of this district, whose decisions impact our lives more directly than anything Mark Schauer or Barack Obama will be doing. And yeah, we've got Congressman-elect Mark Schauer. Just because he's a Democrat doesn't mean he doesn't need to be watched from time to time. I'm not quite sure how this is going to work yet, but I hope you'll keep coming back. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Wednesday, November 05, 2008 Schauer Wins - Final Results Thread
All precincts have now reported. Here are the (unofficial) final results, via MLive:
356 of 356 Precincts Reporting - 100%
That's a margin of 7,423 votes. Via CNN, here are the county totals: Branch (100% reporting) Walberg - 9,865 - 56% Schauer - 6,879 - 39% Calhoun (100% reporting) Walberg - 23,920 - 40% Schauer - 33,649 - 56% Eaton (100% reporting) Walberg - 24,876 - 45% Schauer - 27,648 - 49% Hillsdale (100% reporting) Walberg - 12,015 - 60% Schauer - 6,981 - 35% Jackson (100% reporting) Walberg - 34,231 - 47% Schauer - 34,977 - 48% Lenawee (100% reporting) Walberg - 22,950 - 49% Schauer - 22,018 - 47% Washtenaw (100% reporting) Walberg - 21,909 - 44% Schauer - 25,037 - 51% And now it's all over. Note that Schauer won Calhoun, Eaton, Jackson, and Washtenaw Counties, while Walberg won only Branch, Hillsdale, and Lenawee Counties. It's also worth noting that Lenawee County-- which President-Elect Barack Obama won-- went to Walberg by only 932 votes. That's incredible. Thank you, Congressman Walberg, for your service. Although I've been very critical, I don't doubt that you acted with the country's best interests at heart. We just have a disagreement on what's best for the country. Congratulations, Congressman-elect Schauer. Now comes the hard part. Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Ken Proctor, Lynn Meadows, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Walberg Concedes (Almost), Schauer Declares Victory
UPDATE: For final results, click here.
From the Battle Creek Enquirer: U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, R-Tipton, all but conceded Michigan’s 7th Congressional District race to Democratic challenger Mark Schauer, who declared victory about 2 a.m. today.That's good enough for me. I'm done for the night. The Enquirer has slightly different numbers than I do via the MLive site. Here's where they've got the results as of right now: 324 of 356 Precincts Reporting - 91%
That's a margin of 4,365 votes. It's close, but it should hold. By county: Branch (100% reporting) Walberg - 9,865 - 56% Schauer - 6,879 - 39% Calhoun (100% reporting) Walberg - 23,920 - 40% Schauer - 33,649 - 56% Eaton (70% reporting) Walberg - 21,571 - 45% Schauer - 23,209 - 49% Hillsdale (100% reporting) Walberg - 12,015 - 60% Schauer - 6,981 - 35% Jackson (100% reporting) Walberg - 34,231 - 47% Schauer - 34,977 - 48% Lenawee (83% reporting) Walberg - 19,361 - 52% Schauer - 16,627 - 45% Washtenaw (90% reporting) Walberg - 20,060 - 44% Schauer - 23,066 - 51% The winner or current leader in each county is italicized. We're still waiting on results from three Windsor precincts in Eaton County, the seven precincts covering the entire city of Adrian in Lenawee County (.pdf), and four precincts in Webster Township in Washtenaw County. If they have any meaningful impact, I think it will be Adrian adding to Schauer's margin and making Lenawee County a little bit closer. I don't know enough about the voting patterns of the others to speak intelligently. (Fun fact for the night: Even without Adrian, Senator Barack Obama actually leads in Lenawee County right now, 49.10 percent to 48.81 percent. Wow!) Personally, I'm not comfortable calling this, and I'm nervous that I'll wake up tomorrow morning and be disappointed. Maybe that's why I'm just a blogger and not a professional political operative. I'll have a longer write-up sometime when all the results are in. Until then, congratulations to all of the candidates. It's finally over. Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Ken Proctor, Lynn Meadows, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Tuesday, November 04, 2008 Election Day - Results
UPDATE: For final results, click here.
From MLive, which loads faster than everyone else right now: 1:09am - Schauer's up to a 433-vote lead. This is going to be a precinct-by-precinct thing for a while. (Note: I've moved previous updates below.) 1:18am - Schauer up by about 1,500. But I'm not ready to breathe yet. 1:36am - Finally, another update! Schauer now leads by about 1,700. 1:41am - In that last update, about half of Jackson County came in as one big block. In Jackson County, it went from Walberg 50-45 to Schauer 48-47. Wow. 1:47am - Schauer has a 5,000-vote lead now. But I'm still holding my breath. 1:57am - Schauer's lead dropped a bit, but he's still ahead by about 4,200 votes. 2:05am - It's getting close again... Schauer's lead is under 4,000 votes. Will it last the rest of the night? The good news is, Hillsdale is done. 2:10am - Now about a 3,600-vote lead. Only 33 precincts left. 2:14am - It's down to Eaton, Lenawee, and Washtenaw. Is Walberg strong enough in any of them to push him back over the top? Schauer's back up to a 4,300-vote lead. 2:23am - Just to be clear, the lead is enough to say that probably, probably, this is a Schauer win. But I'm a suspicious person, so while the folks at the Schauer election night party are celebrating, I'm not quite ready to say it's done. That 62-vote lead he had at one point spooked me. 324 of 356 Precincts Reporting - 91%
----- County-By-County Results, via CNN (Note: These will be updated less frequently): Branch (100% reporting) Walberg - 9,865 - 56% Schauer - 6,879 - 39% Calhoun (100% reporting) Walberg - 23,920 - 40% Schauer - 33,649 - 56% Eaton (70% reporting) Walberg - 45% Schauer - 49% Hillsdale (100% reporting) Walberg - 12,015 - 60% Schauer - 6,981 - 35% Jackson (100% reporting) Walberg - 34,231 - 47% Schauer - 34,977 - 48% Lenawee (83% reporting) Walberg - 52% Schauer - 45% Washtenaw (90% reporting) Walberg - 44% Schauer - 51% 11:00pm - CNN: Barack Obama is elected President of the United States 12:15am - For the moment, Schauer seems to have stalled out about 4,000 votes short of Walberg, but there's still a lot left to come. I think, if I'm reading the county clerk websites right, that all of Adrian and all of Delta Township have yet to report. I've got no idea what's happening in Jackson. 12:19am - Chris Gautz at the Citizen Patriot went to bed twenty minutes ago, but I'm still here. I'm taking a short break to stretch my legs, get some caffeine, and grab some non-political stuff to work on while I'm here. I'll be back soon. 12:24am - Walberg widens his lead. Now I'm actually going to go take a break. 12:33am - Schauer cuts the lead to 1,500 votes. 12:36am - What pushed Schauer up just now? Delta Township, in which he won all but three precincts. 12:48am - About 2,000 votes down. 12:51am - Woah! Mark Schauer jumps to a 1,400-vote lead. 12:54am - That was a big chunk of western Washtenaw coming in. Schauer went from a 48-47 lead to a 52-43 lead. Watch for Lenawee County to narrow a bit-- still no Adrian-- but it looks like it'll all come down to Jackson County, which is only 45 percent in. 1:00am - Ah! Schauer leads, but only by 227 votes. That was a chunk of Jackson County. 1:06am - Schauer leads by 62. Ah! Labels: 2008 Election, Ken Proctor, Lynn Meadows, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Closing Arguments
Bumped. It's Election Day. - Fitzy
From WILX, via YouTube user SeventhDem: That's the scripted message each candidate wanted to put forward. For a more complete and unfiltered discussion of the issues, you can listen to, watch, or read coverage of three debates from the last month. Many thanks to WKHM 970 AM, which brings us .mp3 audio files of three debates.
In addition, Senator Schauer has been crossing the district for his closing "Everywhere, Everyday, Every Job Counts" tour. If you need a last opportunity to meet Mark Schauer, here's your chance for tomorrow: I've met both men, heard them both speak on the issues, and watched or listened to all three debates. My vote goes to Mark Schauer. Labels: 2008 Election, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Election Day - What To Watch For
From 7:00pm to 9:00pm, I'm going to be away from a computer-- and, in fact, away from any televisions, radios, or other devices which report election results. During arguably the most exciting portion of the night, when Virginia may be called for Obama, or when the returns start coming in for the Georgia Senate race, or when our own district begins reporting, I won't be able to be a part of it.
For a political junkie like me, that's like missing the World Series, the Rose Bowl (Go 'Cats! I believe in you!), and the World Cup all at once, which, by the way, are also on Christmas. Tomorrow could be a really amazing day, and I’m disappointed that I’ll be missing a big part of it. But when I do get to a computer, I’ll be looking for a few things. I don't claim to have a secret formula or know which tiny town will be the bellwether, and I'm definitely not a Grebner-like expert. But I can tell you what I think a Schauer victory might look like, and where I’ll be looking for it. Turnout in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties With 98 percent of Michigan's voting population registered, there are a lot of people who could show up to vote. That’s got to worry Tim Walberg, whose victory in the 2006 GOP primary was thanks to what former Congressman Joe Schwarz called a "motivated minority" of 7.8 percent in a low-turnout primary. (Schwarz also called them "quasi-theocrats... infiltrating the party power structure"). Granted, a general election is very different from a primary, but a Walberg victory will depend on certain people not showing up, namely in Calhoun County, where Mark Schauer could run up the margin. But Walberg has someone working against him: Barack Obama. The Obama campaign has done a phenomenal job of registering new voters who are trending Democratic. But they didn't ask prospective voters for a partisan affiliation before they registered them, nor should they have. In a Republican-leaning district, is it possible that the Obama campaign might have just registered a bunch of new Republicans? Maybe, but judging from where the new voters are coming from, probably not. With help from the Detroit Free Press (who got the data from the Michigan Secretary of State), here's a fun table: County Reg. Voters New Voters % Change (Jan. - Oct.) Branch 31,805 683 +2% Calhoun* 103,707 3,950 +4% Eaton 80,023 2,781 +4% Hillsdale 33,327 724 +2% Jackson 115,357 4,672 +4% Lenawee 71,552 2,170 +3% Washtenaw* 273,955 24,962 +10% Note that both Calhoun and Washtenaw Counties have portions not in the 7th District. This is especially important in Washtenaw County, where Ann Arbor (and the University of Michigan) probably accounts for most of the voters and most of the growth. However, Battle Creek, which is in the district, is the major population center for Calhoun County, and is probably responsible for most of that growth. So for our simplified purposes here, let's ignore Washtenaw County but keep Calhoun County. As you can see, the most new voters were added in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties (both in absolute number of voters and in proportion to their populations). Calhoun County is generally considered safe territory for Mark Schauer, who has represented the voters there in the state House and Senate since 1996 and is generally very popular. Jackson and Eaton Counties, meanwhile, are the major "battlegrounds." Not only are they vote-rich, but they were divided pretty evenly in the 2006 election (Eaton: Renier 50 Walberg 48; Jackson: Walberg 51 Renier 46). Although Schauer currently represents much of Jackson County in the state Senate, I’m expecting it to be a major battleground again. Neglected in the voter registration drives were the Walberg strongholds of Branch and Hillsdale Counties, and to a lesser degree, Lenawee County (more on it in a minute). I don't have solid data behind me, but I'm going to guess that if they turn out to vote, the new voters in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties will break Democratic. If they were registered by the Obama folks, they were probably targeted as students or underrepresented populations, which is probably good news for Mark Schauer. At least, that’s what I'm hoping. In 2006, Calhoun County had 47.5 percent turnout, Eaton County had 59.9 percent turnout, and Jackson County had 51.8 percent turnout (data here and here). If turnout is higher than that in those three counties (and especially Calhoun County), new voters and Schauer loyalists could run up enough of a margin to offset losses in the southern part of the district. If the turnout is really big in Calhoun County, that might be the whole ball game. Is that a possibility? Could central-west Michigan see a massive surge in turnout? I don’t know, but it sounds like Kalamazoo County (one west from Calhoun County) is getting ready for one: KALAMAZOO -- Bracing for a very long and very busy Tuesday, area election officials say they're "as ready as we'll ever be" for the 2008 presidential election. Lenawee County This is where Tim Walberg should win. He represented Lenawee County for 16 years in the state House of Representatives, and the mostly rural county is famous (or infamous) for its conservative politics and sometimes frightening tendencies. (Anyone else remember "Radio Free Lenawee"?) This is where I'm from, and I can say that it is a conservative place. At the same time, though, people don't really like Tim Walberg all that much. Oh, sure, some do. Whenever I was canvassing, I was bound to run into someone who would say, "I plan to vote for Tim, I’ve known him for years" or something like that. But I'd also meet someone who'd say, "Walberg? I can’t believe we keep electing that guy!" The solidly-Republican state House seat Walberg vacated has been in Democratic hands (albeit moderate ones) for ten years. With state Representative Dudley Spade basically guaranteed reelection, it'll stay that way for at least two more years. Meanwhile, the county is changing. Before the economy got really bad, a lot of people were moving out to Clinton or Tecumseh from Ann Arbor or metro Detroit for the cheaper properties, willing to put up with the couple-hour commute. They don’t have a relationship with Tim Walberg, and some of them are even (gasp) Democrats. And the Schauer campaign has taken the county seriously, opening an office in downtown Adrian and hiring a full-time field organizer to staff it and coordinate with the Obama and Spade campaigns. Whenever he's in the county, Mark Schauer is certain to mention his great relationship with Doug and Dudley Spade, both of whom carry a lot of weight. (Side note: Their secret to success? They're actually really good representatives. If you go to Dudley Spade with a problem, he'll do everything he can to solve it.) Throw in the Obama organizers, and you've got a real chance for 2008 to be a year of Democratic revival in Lenawee County. Will Mark Schauer win it? ... No. It just won't happen. But he can keep it close. Governor Jennifer Granholm managed to take 47 percent of the vote in 2006, and if Schauer can get a similar share of the vote and hold Walberg to 51 or 52 percent, it could mean a lot. If Schauer opens up a big lead in Calhoun County and Washtenaw County, then there just aren’t enough voters in Branch and Hillsdale Counties to make up for it. Walberg needs to win Lenawee County convincingly. If Lenawee County is as tight as the other "battlegrounds," it's going to be a rough night for Tim Walberg. And what if Mark Schauer wins Lenawee County? Then short of something really unexpected happening, Schauer will win the district. But like I said, Schauer won't win Lenawee County. I'm not going to let my hopes get that high. Obama Barack Obama is going to win the state of Michigan. The only question left is "How big?" Since John McCain pulled out of Michigan, it's started to look pretty big. Here's the Pollster.com chart for Michigan: That's quite a sight, isn't it? The final Pollster average puts it at Obama +16, which would be a bigger margin than Bill Clinton’s +13 win in 1996. That year, with the help of Ross Perot, Bill Clinton carried four of the counties that currently make up the 7th District: Calhoun, Washtenaw, Lenawee, and Branch. Calhoun and Washtenaw are to be expected, but Lenawee and Branch surprised me when I looked back at them. After all, these are supposed to be the conservative parts of the district. Supposing Obama has similar success, picking up Calhoun, western Washtenaw, and at least one other county, is there any way Mark Schauer can lose? I'm not sure what the Obama-Walberg voter looks like, and I'd be shocked to see Obama carrying Jackson County by a wide margin but Schauer losing it. Maybe it's possible, but Mark Schauer has done a good job presenting himself as a moderate and a hard-working, dependable public servant. If Obama wins big, I can't imagine any reason for the Obama voter to choose "more of the same" and Tim Walberg. ***** Upon re-reading all of that, I'm worried that I'm being too optimistic and tempting fate for another disappointing election night. It's possible. Even so, and despite not having any idea of what I'm doing, I think that most of my reasoning has some foundation to it. I think one of the three factors above (if not all of them) could contribute to a Schauer victory. That's what I'll be looking for, sometime around 9:15pm Eastern Time. It's possible that there will be a clear leader by the time I arrive on the scene. We'll see soon enough if any of this is right. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Barack Obama, Dudley Spade, John McCain, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg 7th District Most Targeted For Independent Expenditures
Swing State Project has been doing a phenomenal job of tracking spending across the country by independent groups, in addition to candidate spending. They created a chart showing the total spending and partisan leanings for every contested House race in the country. Here's the explanation:
Note that this does not include direct expenditures by party committees (like we saw the other day from the DCCC in NJ-05 & FL-18) or electioneering communications by 527's like Freedom's Crotch (the FEC's database is all but unnavigable).And here's what they found:
That's right. We were the most-targeted district in the country for independent expenditures. Remember that this doesn't include the candidates' own spending, the DCCC or NRCC, or even many 572 groups. Wow. And, as evidence of the excitement on the part of Democrats this year, a clear majority of that spending came in support of Mark Schauer or in opposition to Tim Walberg. After the election, I'd like to take some time to seriously look at where the money came from on both sides. Right now, I'm just shocked by the enormity of it all. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Walberg Making Fake Robo-Calls?
Via Blogging for Michigan:
Delta Twp.-Delta Township Democrats called on Congressman Tim Walberg and his supporters to immediately stop robo-calls that have gone out to voters that imply local Democratic Eaton County officials support Walberg. Several voters complained about receiving the calls on their home answering machines today.If anyone has more information, I'd love to hear more. If true, this strikes me as a desperate move. Walberg should be ashamed of himself. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg In Case You Forgot...
Still trying to make up your mind? Are you a moderate Republican, uncomfortable with Tim Walberg but not quite ready to vote for Mark Schauer? Do you wish Joe Schwarz would come back?
I can't help you with that. But I can give you this, via YouTube user SeventhDem: And, in case you don't remember what Joe Schwarz went through (thanks to Tim Walberg), here's the piece he wrote for the Washington Post two years ago: I am the political equivalent of a woolly mammoth, a rarity heading for extinction. Yes, I'm a moderate.You should really read the whole thing. It's a little dated, but worth it. And, of course, here's what happened this time around: Former Republican Rep. Joe Schwarz, who railed against an anti-tax group's role in his unsuccessful 2006 primary, endorsed Democrat Mark Schauer on Tuesday because the organization targeted the congressional challenger.and Schwarz, a supporter of John McCain's presidential campaign, said he had hoped to stay neutral in the race but "once they made the decision, the die was cast."Joe Schwarz is a good man, and what Tim Walberg did to him was reprehensible. There are lots of reasons to vote for Mark Schauer, and there are lots of reasons to vote against Tim Walberg. But if you're still looking, I'd encourage you to listen to what former Congressman Joe Schwarz has to say. Labels: Endorsements, Joe Schwarz, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Monday, November 03, 2008 Jackson Cit-Pat Endorses Schauer
Here's my Election Eve prediction: Jackson County is going to decide the outcome of the 7th Congressional District race. As predictions go, that's not too controversial. It's the county with the most people and it's the county that's basically evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. When the county's main daily endorses, it has the potential to be a big deal.
This weekend, the Jackson Citizen Patriot made its decision. You can tell they were a little torn over the decision, in the birthplace of the Republican Party. Nevertheless, I agree with the conclusion they reached. In their Sunday, November 2, 2008 issue, the Citizen Patriot endorsed Mark Schauer: Voters in the 7th Congressional District might express relief more than anything else at the end of the $6 million-plus campaign between Mark Schauer and Rep. Tim Walberg. Their scorched-earth battle of misinformation and even outright lies has not been worthy of two honorable men or the district they want to represent.The Citizen Patriot has always struck me as a moderate-to-conservative paper, though they've had some very good reporting this election cycle and last time. As Eric B. at Michigan Liberal notes, so close to Election Day, most people have probably made a decision. Even so, it doesn't hurt to add one more newspaper that says Mark Schauer is the right man for the job. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Pre-Election Round-Up
I think that this is interesting. Compared to this time last year-- when there was no election-- and this time in 2006, traffic to Walberg Watch is down, but not by all that much. Why is this interesting? Well, frankly, because I've fallen down on the job and fallen behind. Life got in the way. And even so, people keep visiting Walberg Watch. Thank you, everyone, and especially to everyone that has e-mailed me over the last few weeks.
Even though I've been a little quieter, I still absolutely believe that Mark Schauer is the right man for the job, and Tim Walberg absolutely has to go. I've simply run out of time to give everything the time it deserves, but here are some interesting last-minute items: ----- The Michigan Republican Party put out this advertisement: What's the problem? The photo of Mark Schauer slowly floating down the screen was stolen from a progressive blogger. According to Chris Gautz at the Citizen Patriot, two more photos were also stolen from the same blogger for use in direct mail pieces. That's just a low move. ----- Speaking of Chris Gautz, he'll be holding a liveblog tomorrow night following the results. I don't always agree with the conclusions he reaches, but it's worth checking out. Chris has a fun writing style and tells it as he sees it. And besides, I'll be away from a computer until about 9:30pm, so there's a chance Walberg Watch won't have anything exciting for a while. You've got to have somewhere to go. ----- There have been a lot of pre-Election Day "Walberg, Schauer in tight race" stories or "Candidates make final push" stories. If you're at Walberg Watch looking for more information, chances are you've already read one of them or you could write one yourself. Still, here's a small sample: Schauer talks jobs at local visit - Daily Telegram Candidates make final push as election nears - Jackson Citizen Patriot Campaign for Congress down to final moments - Battle Creek Enquirer ----- Former Congressman Nick Smith-- who served the district from 1993 to 2005-- endorsed Congressman Tim Walberg for reelection. It's not a huge surprise. His son, Brad Smith, had actually gotten the Club for Growth endorsement over Tim Walberg in 2004, and no one has ever said either Smith was anything other than conservative. I think I might also remember having seen Smith contribute to Walberg sometime in the last two years, though I'm not totally sure. Still, it's a significant endorsement, and worth reporting. ----- In mid-October, President George W. Bush was in Grand Rapids for a fundraising trip, and Congressman Tim Walberg was a major beneficiary. George W. Bush was here, helping Tim Walberg. I've got no further comment. ----- In case you're one of the many people every day that comes to Walberg Watch following a Google search for polling on the race, Pollster.com has a handy graph that shows the polling trend of the race. Sadly, there's been very little independent, public polling. ----- Remember to vote. Sure, you have to pay taxes and obey the laws in this country. But your right to vote makes up for all of those mild inconveniences. Bob Schieffer of CBS News said this at the conclusion of the third presidential debate: I'll leave you tonight with what my mother always said: Go vote now. It'll make you feel big and strong.That's right. If I've missed anything you think is important, leave it in the comments. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Endorsements, Fundraising, Mark Schauer, Republican Party, Tim Walberg Friday, October 31, 2008 Late-Night Blogging In Review
Whew!
So, all has not been well in Fitzy-land. I've been busy, I've been caught up in presidential campaign excitement, and, of course, somehow I managed to catch both a cold (a couple of weeks ago) and a "flu-like virus" (this week). Really, there have been some pretty miserable moments. But you don't care about that, you care about beating Tim Walberg! So I spent the last few days trying to catch up with the campaign-- that can be seen in the dozens of posts below, which I've just uploaded. Most of them are going to sink off of the page pretty quickly (or already have), so I want to give you a table of contents of sort. Here's everything I've been up to today. By the way, there's more coming tomorrow. This is just part one. Today's blogging: Predictions
Endorsements
As I said above, there's more coming tomorrow, especially in the "Debates" category. That's tomorrow. Honestly, I'm really tired right now. But I've got one last thing, for all of you progressive Democrats that need some motivating for the last week of the campaign. Watch this: The U.S. Senate Democratic caucus made that video last year in memory of Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MN), who was killed in a plane crash on October 25, 2002, along with his wife, his staff, and the flight crew. Wellstone was someone who you could count on to fight for you, and I think the video captures that. Regardless of whether you agree with his politics, I think most would agree that if we had more leaders who were that passionate about helping people, we'd be better off. (By the way, Senator Schauer-- I know that you're fairly moderate and this is a moderate district, but if you win on November 4th, I'll be measuring you against the Wellstone standard.) Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Paul Wellstone, Tim Walberg Walberg: Iraq Did Have WMD
Um... Congressman Walberg?
Transcript Walberg: Did not Saddam Hussein have the weapons of mass destruction?Hm. So, Saddam Hussein did have weapons of mass destruction, it's just that they're hidden so well that even after five years, we haven't found any. The Iraqi government was able to hide them quickly, in the midst of preparations for an invasion, without leaving any traces or having any witnesses that were able to give credible accounts to the Americans searching for the weapons. Right. I'm not an expert on this, but thankfully, there are some people that have spent a lot of time on this. For instance, the Iraq Survey Group, which was convened by coalition governments specifically to search for stockpiles or evidence of stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction, had this to say: The former Regime had no formal written strategy or plan for the revival of WMD after sanctions. Neither was there an identifiable group of WMD policy makers or planners separate from Saddam. Instead, his lieutenants understood WMD revival was his goal from their long association with Saddam and his infrequent, but firm, verbal comments and directions to them. and this: ISG has not found evidence that Saddam Husayn possessed WMD stocks in 2003, but the available evidence from its investigation—including detainee interviews and document exploitation—leaves open the possibility that some weapons existed in Iraq although not of a militarily significant capability. Several senior officers asserted that if Saddam had WMD available when the 2003 war began, he would have used them to avoid being overrun by Coalition forces.In other words, Saddam Hussein really, really wanted weapons of mass destruction, liked to brag about them, but didn't actually have any. He was a deluded, aging dictator, not a serious threat. And what about Tim Walberg's idea that the weapons might have been moved or buried? In an addendum to the final report, it was concluded that it was possible, but very unlikely. Again, I have to ask, if there were these massive stockpiles, how is it that no one witnessed their movements across the border? I don't know, Congressman Walberg, this is straying into conspiracy-theory land. Next you're going to tell me that black helicopters from the UN are out to get you. But wait, Congressman Walberg said that the "Hamilton Commission" found out that the weapons were buried in the desert. So he's right... right? No. He's referring to the Iraq Study Group (not to be confused with the Iraq Survey Group above), which was a bipartisan panel, chaired by Lee Hamilton (a Democrat) and James Baker (a Republican), and which released its final report in December of 2006. Except, they weren't tasked with investigating weapons of mass destruction. They were instead asked to find a path out of the mess we had created in Iraq. In fact, in their final report, the phrase "weapons of mass destruction" only appears once, in the biography of one of the commission members. As far as I can tell, the report never discusses the truth behind claims about weapons stockpiles, nor does it address what might have happened to those stockpiles, if they had existed. Frankly, I haven't got any idea what Walberg is referring to. If anyone can enlighten me, I'll gladly post an update. It's possible-- possible-- that Tim Walberg could be right, and a couple of dozen of Iraqi nuclear bombs are hidden in the desert, or in Syria, or something like that. Maybe, in some crazy, unbelievable way, that all managed to happen without us ever finding any evidence. Hey, anything can happen. But that's not what Tim Walberg said. He didn't say, "Well, who knows, maybe it's possible that they were there!" No. He was sure that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. He mocked Mark Schauer for denying that known fact. It was ridiculous to suggest that Saddam Hussein didn't have weapons of mass destruction, and everyone knows that they're just hidden really well. And yet, there's absolutely no evidence to support that. It's all conjecture and wishful thinking. When presented with evidence that the weapons of mass destruction weren't there, he continues on, living in his fantasy world. We should be used to that by now. It's the same Walberg fantasy world where Iraq is as safe as Detroit, the Chinese are drilling off of the coast of Florida, Hurricane Katrina didn't cause any damage, Iraq was behind September 11, and global climate change isn't real. This isn't funny anymore. Labels: 2008 Election, Debates, Iraq, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Schauer's Closing Ad
Here's Mark Schauer's "closing argument," as articulated via television advertisement:
They released the ad on October 27, 2008, meaning it'll end up running for at most a week, and will probably be the last Schauer ad they see. I think it accomplishes a lot of things. First, starting off by panning across a large group of unemployed workers has a certain populist element in a year that I think populism is a catchy message. There's a sense that these people losing their jobs was an injustice, and that Mark Schauer is on their side-- and on your side, if the same thing happens to you. Second, it repeats the same message Schauer has stuck to for the entire campaign: he'll fight unfair trade agreements and fight for your jobs, while Tim Walberg thinks outsourcing is okay and won't fight for you. He's not trying some last-minute stunt or desperately changing messages. The Schauer campaign is comfortable with where they're at and think that it's working. Third, everything about the ad, from the phrasing of Schauer's script to the music in the background implies "hope," which, as Barack Obama has shown, is popular this year. Schauer won't just fight the special interests or whatever. He'll "get up every day and work hard to get people back to work." That's a nice message. And even so, it's couched in a certain degree of pragmatism-- the "I can't promise you that I can turn our economy around overnight" part. This is still a lean-conservative and lean-Republican district, and people won't vote for a Democrat they think is making ridiculously liberal assertions and promising to fix the world. Mark Schauer is promising to work hard, and will help make things better. Not perfect, but better. I think this is his strongest ad. But then again, I'm a biased observer. What did you think? Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Economy, Issues, Mark Schauer Walberg Ad: They're Lying About Me!
Although it's not on Tim Walberg's rarely-updated YouTube page, on October 20, Chris Gautz brought us one of the Walberg campaign's latest television ads:
Or, the short version: "Mark Schauer is lying!" I don't know how effective this will be. Rather than countering with actual rebuttals to Schauer's attacks, he's just issuing a blanket "He's lying!" as if that's enough. I don't know if it is. Of course, Chris Gautz, who's quoted in the ad, notes: I guess he decided to take a position-- though, it's not the position he's held before. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Issues, Mark Schauer, Social Security, Tim Walberg Schauer Ad: Walberg and Outsourcing
On October 19, 2008, the Schauer campaign released this television advertisement:
Following the standard pattern of negative-then-positive, I actually think this is a really good ad. Regardless of the validity of the economics behind outsourcing, almost everyone in Michigan knows someone who has a story about losing a job because the business moved operations elsewhere. And when Walberg said that outsourcing was "necessary and good," it was incredibly tone-deaf. But by closing on a positive note-- with a hopeful message and a legitimate Mark Schauer success story, Transpharm-- it casts Schauer as the good guy, on "our side." I'm not a big fan of negative advertising, but when you squeeze in some positive messaging, their value (to me, at least) increases. That's my take, anyway. What did you think? Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Schauer Ad: Walberg "Bought And Paid For"
On October 8th, 2008, the Schauer campaign released this ad:
I'll be honest, I'm not crazy about this one. Using an actor's voice to fill in for Walberg in an attack ad just seems unnecessary to me. That said, this is an issue I've criticized Walberg on countless times, and rightly so. He's been a reliable voice for the Club for Growth in Congress (to the detriment of his constituents). And, yeah, as Eric at Michigan Liberal notes, it's absolutely fair game to use this quote. Even so, I'd be surprised if this was the ad that resonated with voters. People care less about who contributed to whom and more about issues that affect them. A million dollars is a lot, but if you don't already know something about the Club for Growth, it's not going to mean much to you. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Club for Growth, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Walberg Attacks... Michael Moore?
On October 9th, 2008, the Walberg campaign released this television ad:
Contrasting it to their latest ad on the economy, the Schauer campaign had this to say: It's an interesting contrast. Schauer is focusing on the economy and how the incumbent's policies and supporters are making things worse, whereas Walberg's ad focuses on... Michael Moore.More seriously, though, what about the substance of the ad? Yes, Michael Moore does support Mark Schauer, and has contributed to him. Lots of people support Schauer, and that in and of itself shouldn't be a bad thing. It's not like Schauer's been flaunting Moore's endorsement. The tax increase attacks have been common throughout the campaign, and don't need to be addressed in this post. But the thing about giving drivers' licenses to illegal immigrants has been used less. Is there substance to that attack? Well, it turns out, yes and no. Yes, because Senator Schauer was against a provision that would prevent illegal immigrants from getting drivers' licenses, and no, because on the substance of the issue, Mark Schauer was right. Chris Gautz brings us the statement of then-state Representative Schauer when he cast his vote: "Mr. Speaker and members of the House:In other words, complicated problems require thoughtful solutions, not panicked moves without considering the consequences. It's easy to make bold pronouncements like, "Illegal immigrants shouldn't get drivers' licenses!" It's much harder to think through the tough situation that would create for everyone. Mark Schauer brings with him a thoughtful point of view. Tim Walberg brings only a rigid, out-of-touch ideology. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Illegal Immigration, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Ann Arbor News Endorses Schauer
Although Ann Arbor isn't in the 7th District, the Ann Arbor News still serves as the main newspaper for western Washtenaw County, a vote-rich battleground for this year's congressional race. And although Washtenaw County is solidly Democratic, thanks to Ann Arbor, the Ann Arbor News itself is a rather conservative paper. For instance, in 2004, they endorsed President George W. Bush (R), while Senator John Kerry went on to carry the county 63-35.
In 2006, the newspaper chose not to endorse between Renier and Walberg, judging Walberg too radical and Renier too, well, incompetent. Here's what they said about Walberg last time: Walberg's entrenched conservative stances on virtually every issue, from abortion to Iraq, offer no room for compromise - and that ideological rigidity should have no place in Congress. His unwillingness to engage in the necessary give and take of governance makes him an untenable choice.This year, it's different. In their October 24, 2008 issue, the Ann Arbor News endorsed state Senator Mark Schauer over Congressman Tim Walberg: You could tell that it hurt them to do that. Even so, the conservative Ann Arbor News endorsed the Democratic nominee in the 7th District race. That's a big deal. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg LSJ Endorses Schauer
The Lansing State Journal is a great resource for news on state government and the Lansing area, including Eaton County. They've watched Mark Schauer in Lansing up-close, and they've watched as Tim Walberg embarrasses his district in Washington. On Saturday, October 25, 2008, the Lansing State Journal endorsed Mark Schauer:
Voters in Michigan's 7th Congressional District have watched one of the nation's highest profile contests between incumbent Republican Tim Walberg and Democrat Mark Schauer.They also have a fairly decent response to Walberg's attacks on taxes: You can read the whole piece (and the angry comments) here. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Battle Creek Enquirer Endorses Schauer
It's not a huge surprise... From what I hear about Battle Creek's relationship with Mark Schauer, there would probably be rioting if they didn't do this. Nevertheless, it's important to note that the Battle Creek Enquirer endorsed state Senator Mark Schauer over Congressman Tim Walberg in the October 24, 2008 issue:
When it comes to the 7th Congressional District race, we endorse Democrat MARK SCHAUER over first-term incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg.It's a good endorsement, and you can read the whole thing here. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Detroit Free Press Endorses Schauer
Like the Detroit News, the Detroit Free Press isn't a 7th District newspaper and isn't all that widely read in the district, compared to local dailies. But it does help shape opinion in the state, and an endorsement does carry weight-- in particular, with the state and national groups that are looking to handicap races in Michigan. The Free Press tends to be more left-leaning than the conservative News, but it's also the most-read newspaper in Michigan.
In the October 24, 2008, issue, the Free Press discussed the historically low grade of challengers in Michigan's congressional races, and then highlighted and endorsed Mark Schauer and Gary Peters as bucking that trend. No matter what shape the state is in or how much Michigan voters gripe about Washington, they have a pattern of retaining their representatives in Congress. It's pretty tough to knock off an incumbent on these peninsulas. The result is challengers who are sometimes unqualified, usually underfinanced, and generally unable to offer assets equivalent to the experience and seniority that matter so much in the Washington power structure.and You can read the whole endorsement here. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Adrian Daily Telegram Endorses Walberg
It's not a huge surprise, since the paper leans right anyway, it's the only daily newspaper in Lenawee County, and it's endorsed Tim Walberg in the past. Nevertheless, it's worth mentioning that Adrian's Daily Telegram endorsed Congressman Tim Walberg in it's October 24, 2008 issue:
In Michigan’s 7th Congressional District race between Tim Walberg and Mark Schauer, playing up the candidates’ differing views on TV has been like shooting fish in a barrel. In real life, however, the actions of Rep. Walberg in Washington have turned out to be consistent and practical, and that is why voters should re-elect Walberg on Nov. 4.The editorial commends Walberg for what he's done in Congress (including many things I've criticized him for-- and I stand by all of my criticism), and then proceeds to call Mark Schauer a "big-government liberal." Yeah. If you're interested, you can read the whole editorial. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Detroit News Endorses Walberg
The Detroit News isn't a 7th District newspaper, but like it's rival the Free Press, it's still read throughout the state. An endorsement by the paper means less to voters than, say, the local dailies that cover the district, but more to the groups that are handicapping the race, particularly those from a conservative perspective. I discussed all of this in the post on the Free Press endorsement.
In 2006, the News refused to endorse Tim Walberg, judging him too "extreme," and opting for the comparatively safe Libertarian Robert Hutchinson. This time around, they've judged Walberg to be a standard Bush Republican-- which, in the eyes of the Detroit News, is a good thing. They've endorsed Congressman Tim Walberg for re-election. Meh. You can't win 'em all. Labels: 2008 Election, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Walberg... Spells His Own Name Wrong?
Every now and then, a politician does something stupid that doesn't actually matter, but makes us all feel better about ourselves. When Barack Obama accidentally said he had visited "fifty-seven states," he didn't actually mean it. He was tired and he misspoke.
But it's fun to make fun of that anyway, just like it's fun to make fun of a minor mistake made by Congressman Tim Walberg, which the Schauer campaign jumped on, while noting a previous mistake: WALBERG SPELLS OWN NAME WRONG(Emphasis added.) And before anyone says anything, it wasn't just some staffer mis-typing something. This was a handwritten fundraising appeal which was passed on to the Schauer campaign. Shown below, Walberg spells his name two different ways:  and  Now, the actual story here is the panicked, last-minute fundraising appeal for "anything you can send," but that's not nearly as much fun as the spelling error. Then again, I have a tough to spell last name too, so I understand, Congressman Walberg. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Mark Schauer's Pre-General Fundraising
On October 23, 2008, Schauer for Congress filed the Pre-General report with the Federal Election Commission. It covers the period from October 1 to October 15.
In the fifteen-day period covered by the report, Mark Schauer raised $223,453.73, plus almost $3,000 transferred from the joint committee with 9th District Democrat Gary Peters. Of the contributions he received, $164,861.37 came from individual donors, or about 74 percent. The Schauer campaign raised a total of $2,016,586.85 for the entire cycle up to that date. The Schauer for Congress committee also spent $347,638.14 in that period, including a $101,409.82 media buy and a $100,000.00 transfer to the Michigan Democratic Party. As a result of these expenditures, the Schauer campaign's cash-on-hand as of October 15 was $734,888.42. Chris Gautz at the Jackson Citizen Patriot picked out some significant contributors during this filing period. It's interesting reading. The total dollar amount raised for every Democratic nominee in the 7th District since the 2002 cycle (when the current boundaries were adopted) and prior to 2008 is $115,718. That is, the total amount of money raised for the 2002, 2004, and 2006 nominees was $115,718. In 15 days, Mark Schauer raised almost twice that, and for the whole cycle, has raised raised that more than 17 times over. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer Mark Schauer's Third Quarter Fundraising
On October 15, 2008, the Schauer for Congress campaign filed their third quarter fundraising report with the Federal Elections Commission. It covers the period from July 1, 2008 to September 30, 2008.
In this quarter, Schauer raised $458,652.03, with $305,534.39 coming from individual donors, or about 67 percent. The rest came from political action committees or other, similar groups. For the entire election cycle up to the end of September, Schauer raised $1,790,209.25. In the same quarter, Schauer spent $531,189.52. This accounts for more than half of all their spending in this election cycle, including large "media production" costs-- presumably, television ads-- reflecting the start of the general election period. The campaign finished the quarter with $856,148.96 cash-on-hand. This quarter is the fifth straight quarter in which Mark Schauer has out-raised Tim Walberg. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer Fox News: Walberg Will Lose
Ouch. It's got to hurt when Fox News, always willing to put a more optimistic spin on things for Republicans, says Tim Walberg will lose:
MI 7: Rep. Tim Walberg (R) is one of the most-endangered Republicans this cycle in a contest against Mark Schauer. Expect a Democratic win. Especially after McCain pulled out of Michigan.This won't mean a thing on Election Day, however. You've still got to get out there and help get out the vote for Mark Schauer. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Larry Sabato: Schauer Will Win
(Thanks to the multiple people that e-mailed me about this.)
On his "Crystal Ball" website, Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, published his "next-to-last" predictions for Election Day 2008. They're pretty good for the Democrats all around, but here's the part that matters to me the most:  I don't know if you can see it on there, but "MI-07 (Walberg)" is under the "Democratic Pick-up" column. Yeah, it's just one prediction, and it won't matter at all in five days. But it's good to see anyway.Mind you, this is no time to get overconfident. Mark Schauer is going to need everyone's help to get out the vote. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg DCCC Poll: Schauer 43, Walberg 35
Catching up... -- Fitzy
For the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Benenson Strategy Group conducted a poll over October 6 and 7, 2008. With a margin of error of 4.9 percent, here's what they found: Mark Schauer (D) - 43 Tim Walberg (R-inc.) - 35 The press release didn't release details like sample size or, for that matter, if they asked any other questions, and I'm mentioning this late enough that I feel silly asking for those details now. Suffice it to say, this seems more or less in line with the poll the Schauer campaign released at about the same time. Right now, I'm inclined to believe that both polls are accurate, and Schauer is leading by a respectable margin, with a lot of undecideds. Why? It's been weeks, and the Walberg folks haven't released their own counter-poll. If they had better-looking data than this, you'd better believe they'd release it. Labels: 2008 Election, DCCC, Mark Schauer, Poll, Tim Walberg Thursday, October 16, 2008 19 Days Out
I've been sick and extremely busy in my non-Walberg Watch life. These things combined make blogging a low priority. But I'm back now, hopefully more consistently, for the next 19 days.
I'm going to have substantive posts coming up soon, but for the moment, I'm going to leave you with this: There are 19 days left between now and Election Day. In that time, a single volunteer with Mark Schauer's campaign could easily make 400 phone calls or 200 doors volunteering just twice a week for two hours each time. Those are very reasonable numbers for just one person, working at a reasonable pace. If you can't give up two hours of your time, you can write a letter to the editor, detailing why Mark Schauer is the right choice for Michigan's 7th District. You can tell your friends and neighbors about the irresponsible votes cast by Tim Walberg. You can spend five minutes calling up your college-age child to make sure he or she has gotten an absentee ballot. There's a lot of work to be done between now and Election Day, and the Get Out The Vote effort is going to be an enormous challenge, especially in a district as large as Michigan's 7th District. It's not about chipping in $20 or putting a bumper sticker on your car anymore. We've reachd the serious part of the campaign. It's up to you. What are you going to do to help elect Mark Schauer? Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Thursday, October 09, 2008 Walberg For Privatizing Social Security Before He Was Against It Even Though He's For It
At last night's debate in Adrian, Congressman Tim Walberg and state Senator Mark Schauer talked about privatizing Social Security. Here's what happened, via the Jackson Citizen Patriot's Chris Gautz:
and Holly Klaft: And, finally, the Schauer campaign has this quote: "I have never taken a position to privatize Social Security."Now, I haven't gotten my hands on any audio from the debate (yet), so I can't give you the unfiltered exchange. But let's suppose that this is all that happened. For starters, when it says: He has said he would support giving future workers the option of putting part of their payroll taxes in personal accounts.Well, Congressman Walberg, that is privatization of Social Security. At least, that's the sort of plan generally accepted as privatizing Social Security. People get into trouble by relying on Wikipedia too much, but the article on this debate, while not the best, has a decent explanation of what "personal accounts" means-- namely, that individuals could take money they pay into the Social Security system and invest it in stocks and bonds. So, Congressman Walberg, when this happened: And this: "I have never taken a position to privatize Social Security."Well, you weren't exactly being honest. And then this: That's basically true. No one's really been pushing that idea lately. It basically died in 2005, due to lack of support and a lack of political capital for President Bush. But that didn't stop Tim Walberg from supporting it in 2006, so much so that he put it on his website: Tim supports President Bush’s efforts to expand our ownership society by allowing younger workers to voluntarily invest a portion of their payroll taxes and allowing the money to be secured in personal investment accounts.And in 2004, he also put on his website: Tim Walberg believes Social Security benefits must be protected and younger workers should have the option of investing a portion of their payroll taxes in stocks, bonds, or money market funds. Under this reform, younger workers will earn a higher rate of return and likely retire with far more funds than under the current system.Those claims are a little dubious, but that's beside the point-- in 2004 and 2006, Walberg was clearly on the record as supporting privatizing Social Security. And then, in September, from the Detroit News: Walberg, R-Tipton, supports changing the program so younger workers could choose to invest a portion of their Social Security money in private investment accounts.And this from the Citizen Patriot the next day: My point, of course, is to say that yes, Congressman Walberg, you do support privatizing Social Security. You didn't call it that, but Holly Klaft equated your plan with privatization, and we didn't hear any calls for a retraction. And just a few days ago, Chris Gautz made the same connection between "privatization" and the Walberg plan: Also in the ad, it points out Walberg's support of "privatization," which is another way of saying he supports giving future workers the option of saving part of their payroll taxes in personal accounts. Of course those accounts could be subject to the whims of the market, and especially this week, might not be the most popular idea.So, Congressman, when you said: "I have never taken a position to privatize Social Security."well, that was just a lie. You have taken a position in favor of privatizing Social Security. The only thing you haven't done is used the magical word "privatize." Needless to say, the Schauer campaign is jumping on this (and rightly so): Labels: 2008 Election, Debates, Issues, Mark Schauer, Social Security, Tim Walberg Health Care for America NOW Launches Ad Against Walberg
The fun part about living in a district with lots of national attention is that you get to learn all about political groups you'd never heard of before.
The Hill reports: It will be interesting to see the kind of impact they might have on the campaign. Personally, I'd like to see all candidates talk about health care more, and, to his credit, it's something Mark Schauer rarely fails to mention. With Health Care for America NOW, all I can hope is that the "telephone campaigning" doesn't include robocalls. Please, nobody likes those. Here's the television ad they're running against Tim Walberg: Ouch. Maybe I'm just a receptive audience, but I'd say that it's a pretty effective ad. The bill they mention is HR 4460, the "Health Care Choice Act of 2007," of which Tim Walberg is a cosponsor. It was introduced but never made it out of committee, and for a good reason. The bill would allow health insurance companies to sell insurance across state lines, potentially opening you up to cheaper options, should you decide to purchase health insurance on your own. However, by allowing health insurance companies to designate a "primary" state and making them exempt from the laws of all other "secondary" states in which they sell, that would mean insurers could choose as a "primary" state somewhere that, say, doesn't have a law requiring that they cover pre-existing conditions. The ad says it would let the insurance companies "make the rules," and that's not quite true. It's more that it would let the insurance companies pick and choose which combination of rules they want to follow. (Thanks to Wikipedia and this blog for guiding me in the right direction.) Anyway, that's the policy behind the ad. Now, back to the politics. In addition to the television ad, Congressman Walberg is featured on a website they launched, WhichSideAreTheyOn.com. Walberg's page, with a side-by-side comparison to Mark Schauer, leaves the reader with one clear conclusion-- Tim Walberg's not on your side. They also include a .pdf file with a good summary of Walberg's record on health care. It's certainly a must-read for anyone planning to talk with friends or relatives, and should be added to the talking points for Schauer volunteers going door-to-door. Labels: 110th Congress, 2008 Election, Advertising, Health Care, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg NRCC Releases Attack Ad
Not content to just fund Tim Walberg's attack ads, on October 7, 2008, the National Republican Congressional Committee released an attack ad of its own against Mark Schauer:
As the always-observant Chris Gautz points out, there's more than one side to the kicked-off-committee story: Maybe I'm just a partisan Democrat, but I remember thinking at the time that it seemed like Senator McManus had other motives than just encouraging good attendance. But really, that line of attack strikes me as too inside-baseball to resonate with voters. When people are worried about jobs and losing their homes, "Mark Schauer is a troublemaker who got kicked off his committee" doesn't seem like it'll matter all that much to me. You know, I can even see it going further the other way, too-- John McCain's popularity was partly from his "maverick" image, and getting kicked off your committee is one way to show your independence from the status quo. Maybe Tim Walberg should have tried harder to get kicked off of a committee... But now I'm just getting silly. It's a creative ad, but I don't think it'll do anything other than reinforce the "largest tax increase" narrative. But if Mark Schauer's internal polling is to be believed, that's a narrative that's just not working. Schauer's taking the lead and is more trusted on taxes than Tim Walberg. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Issues, Mark Schauer, NRCC, Taxes, Tim Walberg The State of the Race From Susan Demas
A friend pointed me in the direction of an article by Susan Demas in the Lansing City Pulse, which more or less describes the 7th District race up to this point. Although she leaves out the fun details you get by reading Walberg Watch, it's a pretty good description of the state of the race, including the history behind it from 2006. If you're just joining us now, or have friends or relatives who don't know much about what's going on, it's a good starting point.
The short version of the article is that Tim Walberg has a lot of built-in advantages from his district map and is a good campaigner, but Mark Schauer is also an exceptional campaigner, and has lots and lots of money. Also, if Joe Schwarz were still in Congress, he'd be there for the rest of his life and no one would complain. I've had some differences with Susan Demas (which is healthy), and, while I generally focus on the articles she writes that are critical of Tim Walberg, she's also had not so kind things to say about Mark Schauer and the progressive blogosphere. Sometimes, I've been offended. Sometimes, she's much more confrontational than I would be. Sometimes, I've walked away in disgust and frustration. But all of that is okay. She's filling her role, and we're filling our roles. This is how politics works. Susan Demas is a good journalist, which makes her worth paying close attention to, even when she's wrong. Go read her City Pulse article. It's a good read and it paints an optimistic picture for Mark Schauer. But more than that, it gives a good overview of the race from a solid reporter. Before you get too pessimistic or too confident, you need a good review of the state of the race to bring you back to reality. Right. That was entirely too much praise for this blog. I've got to get back to bashing Tim Walberg. Labels: 2008 Election, Journalism, Mark Schauer, Susan Demas, Tim Walberg Tuesday, October 07, 2008 Schauer Internal: Schauer 46 Walberg 36
Here I was, thinking Republican endorsements and tonight's Siena Heights University candidate forum would be the only excitement. The Schauer campaign released a new poll:
and “Today, by a 28-point margin voters are more likely to blame unfair trade policies than taxes for Michigan’s economic situation, and across the board they favor Schauer on every economic issue,” said pollster Andrew Myers. “Make no mistake, this political environment is becoming dangerous for any Republican incumbent, particularly one whose connection to voters here is as tenuous as Walberg’s.” Once again, it was through Myers Research & Strategic Services. It was conducted October 5 and 6, surveying 500 "likely voters." The partisan breakdown was 36 percent Democratic, 33 percent Republican, and 31 percent independent. The margin of error is 4.38 percent with a 95 percent confidence level. Here are the reported results (Sept. 23-24 results in parentheses, where available): Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg - Independents Only Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg - Lansing Media Market Only Trust On Taxes Generic Congressional Ballot Barack Obama vs. John McCain Walberg Job Performance There's lots of good stuff in there for Mark Schauer. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Poll, Taxes, Tim Walberg Republicans For Schauer
It never hurts to be bipartisan, and it definitely never hurts for the other guy's base to be divided.
Luckily for Mark Schauer, both of these are true. The Schauer for Congress campaign just sent out a press release announcing the "Republicans for Schauer"-- prominent Republicans from around the district and in the state government who have come out either in recent weeks or today and endorsed Senator Schauer over Tim Walberg. BATTLE CREEK—Today several prominent Republicans announced their support for state Senator Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) over incumbent Congressman Tim Walberg, citing Schauer's ability to work across the aisle to get things done.Here are the Republicans for Schauer named in the announcement:
This, of course, brings the obvious question: Are you a Republican? Are you rejecting Tim Walberg's closed-mindedness and supporting Mark Schauer? If you have Republican friends who aren't crazy about Tim Walberg, you might want to let them know that Joe Schwarz, David Stimpson, and the Republicans that worked with Mark Schauer every day in state government have decided to support Schauer. All of these people have met and know Tim Walberg. They still picked Schauer. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Moderate Republicans, Republican Party, Tim Walberg Monday, October 06, 2008 Quick Post
I just wanted to make sure you all knew I was still here. I'll have more later, but a couple of quick items:
- Mark Schauer was endorsed by People for the American Way, and is now the beneficiary of a fundraising competition. If you've been thinking about contributing to Schauer's campaign, consider contributing with them, showing your support for activists nationwide to see. - There's been some excitement in presidential politics. Just as a reminder, here's what Barack Obama has been doing to support Mark Schauer:    ... And here's what John McCain has been doing to support Tim Walberg:LANSING, Mich.-- Republican John McCain's decision to halt his Michigan campaign has left a hole in state GOP efforts and uncertainty hanging over the re-election chances of two congressmen.I'll probably write more about this later. What else is happening today? Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Saturday, October 04, 2008 New Walberg/NRCC Ad
I missed this the other day... On Septmeber 30, the Walberg folks have another attack ad:
First, can I just say, "Sour On Schauer" has to be the stupidest thing I've heard this year. Really? That's literally the best thing you can come up with? I support Mark Schauer, and I can come up with more clever ways to attack him! And what's with the lemons? Really? And the bouncing lemon animation, as if they were singing a song... but they're not singing? Maybe I just don't get it. But really, come on! I'm all for creativity, but come on! Congressman Walberg, hire a better ad agency! These are awful! But that's not the important part. A stupid campaign ad will be forgotten pretty quickly. Here's the important part:  Right there, "Paid for by the National Republican Congressional Committee and Walberg for Congress." As far as I know, that's the first time the NRCC has helped Walberg pick up the advertising bill. It's not unusual for the party to help pay for some costs for a campaign-- staff, polling, etc.-- as long as the party gets something out of it, too. But I don't remember seeing the NRCC actually help pay for ads before. Normally, I'd say that means Tim Walberg is running low on cash, and needs some extra help to make ends meet. The third quarter just ended, so FEC campaign finance reports should be coming out sometime in the next two weeks and we'll get a clearer picture. If the Walberg campaign can't even pay for its own advertising, they're in trouble. But I said, "Normally, I'd say that means..." Why wouldn't I say that this time? Frankly, because the NRCC doesn't have much money either, and has a lot of contested incumbents they're trying to protect. At the end of August, the DCCC had almost $54 million on-hand, compared to $14 million for the NRCC, and the DCCC was spending about twice as much as their Republican counterparts. Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report says that the Republicans have 37 seats in danger this year, compared to just 18 for the Democrats. That makes me think there's some other reason than Walberg being short on cash. The NRCC is spread thin enough that I'd think they'd have better things to do than help Walberg pay for a crappy ad. I don't know, this one has me puzzled. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, DCCC, Mark Schauer, NRCC, Tim Walberg Tuesday, September 30, 2008 Joe Schwarz Endorses Mark Schauer
Big news:
Former Republican Rep. Joe Schwarz, who railed against an anti-tax group's role in his unsuccessful 2006 primary, endorsed Democrat Mark Schauer on Tuesday because the organization targeted the congressional challenger.and Schwarz, a supporter of John McCain's presidential campaign, said he had hoped to stay neutral in the race but "once they made the decision, the die was cast."and, finally Schwarz said his supporters and former constituents had repeatedly asked him who he planned to support. He had hoped to stay neutral in the race but said he would now let his supporters know that he backs Schauer.Though, instead of reading it here, the AP would much rather have you read it at the Chicago Tribune's website. Here's the statement released by state Senator Mark Schauer: "Joe Schwarz has been a colleague and a partner in helping move our state forward for many years, and it is an honor to have his support in this campaign," said Schauer. "Three years ago, I worked side-by-side with Joe to help save hundreds of jobs at the Battle Creek Air National Guard Base, and unfortunately, that spirit of bipartisanship has been missing since Tim Walberg was elected. With Joe's support, I look forward to fighting for the change Michigan needs as a member of Congress."Nice. It's important to note that former Congressman Schwarz still supports (and calls a friend) Senator John McCain, and he's got a lot of friends throughout the 7th Congressional District. If Schwarz supported Schauer but did it quietly, this wouldn't be a big deal for Tim Walberg. But make no mistake, an open endorsement-- especially if followed by joint Schwarz-Schauer campaigning-- is not good news for Tim Walberg. If Congressman Walberg wants to blame anyone, he can blame his friends at the Club for Growth. Labels: 2008 Election, Joe Schwarz, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Mark Schauer just... gets it
By PerfectStormer
January 16, 2004: Electrolux Group, one of the largest household appliance manufacturers in the world, announces it will idle its refrigerator assembly operations in Greenville, MI. Nearly three thousand jobs will be eliminated. November 21, 2005: GM announces a massive restructuring plan which will result in nine plant closures and the loss of nearly 30,000 jobs, almost ten percent of its American workforce of 325,000. April 11, 2006: Automotive supplier Federal Mogul announces it will idle its operations in St. Johns, Michigan. Four hundred and twenty jobs will be lost. 2007: Faced with years of declining Medicare reimbursements and the astronomical rise in the ranks of the uninsured, Hackley Hospital, once the largest healthcare provider in Muskegon County, completes two rounds of layoffs. Eventually Hackley agrees to be swallowed by its competitor, Mercy Hospital, resulting in Mercy Health Partners. Hackley Hospital, opened on November 17, 1904 as Muskegon's hometown healthcare provider, is no more. Hackley's Lakeshore Cancer Center closes. You've heard the story a hundred times before. A manufacturer or other business hits hard times, finds a cheaper way to do things, finds a cheaper place to do things, and locks the door on the American worker. Mark Schauer's heard the story a hundred times before, too*. He's heard it in his own family as his son-in-law, a journeyman electrician, struggles to find work in Washington state. He's heard it before with several nurses in his family (although their dilemma is rather reversed--forced to work overtime to compensate their brethren in the healthcare industry who have retired and not been replaced, been laid off, been or just plain been burned out by deplorable working conditions.) He heard it again this morning. He heard from a representative from the Electrolux union in Greenville. He heard from a representative from the Federal-Mogul union in St. John's. He heard from a rep for the ironworkers' union, whose ranks are fleeing Michigan for greener pastures elsewhere. He heard from a maintenance worker at the Potterville school district, which has privatized its maintenance operations. Mark Schauer was the guest of honor at a roundtable on economic issues hosted by the Michigan AFL-CIO this morning in Delta Township, moderated by Michigan AFL-CIO president Mark Gaffney. He heard these stories this morning, and among the stories, one fact emerged: Mark Schauer gets it. He gets that these workers aren't statistics--they're real people. He understands the dilemma of the worker forced to leave his family behind in Michigan as he seeks work in Wyoming, or Massachusetts, or Washington. Most importantly, he understands that our entire economy is a giant, tangled web, and that if one strand in the web collapses, the whole web is in jeopardy. He understands that we're spending $10 billion a month in Iraq, enough money to fund the vetoed SCHIP program for five years. He understands that his great-nephew Aidan goes without health insurance because his parents make just a little too much money for SCHIP. He understands that we're about to spend $700 billion to bail out Wall Street, money that (to use our new favorite frame) could be used to bail out Main Street. He understands that when the government buys back a bad mortgage from a bank, it's still a bad mortgage: the family living in the house the mortgage purchased is now forced out on the street. He understands that our economic hell (at least here in Michigan) was created by NAFTA, fueled by CAFTA, and blown to epic proportions by the pro-business, anti-worker policies of the Bush Administration and the Republican Party. He understands that when NAFTA was passed, as he put it, "somebody got lied to." Mark Schauer gets it. Labels: Economy, Issues, Mark Schauer Club for Growth On-Air With $175,000
It's the moment we've all been waiting for... the Club for Growth is on the air:
Washington – Today, the Club for Growth PAC begins running a TV ad on Mark Schauer’s tax record in Michigan’s Seventh Congressional District. The $175,000 ad buy will run on broadcast television in the Lansing market and on cable stations throughout the Seventh District.Here's the ad: ... That's intellectually dishonest! For instance, the poor lady who's worried about Mark Schauer raising her Social Security taxes doesn't tell you that Schauer only said he would support removing the $90,000 cap on payroll taxes. From the article they cite: Schauer said in a conference call with reporters that he would be open to such proposals as raising the current cap on payroll taxes but would not be open to private accounts. He says private accounts would "weaken" the entire Social Security program. He said he'd be open to a "bi-partisan solution that makes adjustments to current Social Security."Currently, only the first $90,000 you make is taxed for Social Security. That is, if you make $60,000 each year, all $60,000 is subject to the payroll tax. If you make $160,000 each year, then $90,000 is subject to the payroll tax and the other $70,000 is not. Removing that cap is generally considered a part of the solution to Social Security's long-term solvency, and the public supports it: "Currently, people pay Social Security taxes only on the first $90,000 of their annual income. If it were necessary to keep the Social Security program paying benefits as it does now, would you favor or oppose increasing the amount of income that is subject to Social Security taxes?"Admittedly, that's a poll from 2005-- it's the most recent one I could find. But I find it hard to believe there's been a dramatic shift since then. I'm going to come back to some of the other tax claims some other time, I promise. My point here is just to highlight the way that the Club for Growth sometimes represents certain things differently than you or I would. Let's remember, these are the people who trashed Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz as "a liberal" who would spend your money, kill your babies, and take away your guns. They're not very nice, and they've got a lot of money. And, of course, they've had a reliable vote in Tim Walberg. The Schauer campaign has responded: BATTLE CREEK—Today the extreme Washington D.C. special interest group Club for Growth began airing its first attack ad against congressional candidate Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek).So what does this move mean? It means that the Club for Growth thinks Tim Walberg is in trouble. They don't do incumbent protection, they go after "bad" Republicans and open seats. Spending $175,000 is probably just the beginning. Tim Walberg, despite all of the advantages of incumbency, can't win reelection on his own. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Club for Growth, Mark Schauer, Taxes, Tim Walberg Schauer Releases Another Ad
This one is titled, "Tables":
Except for the strange static in the background toward the end, I'd say that in my opinion, this is the most powerful ad of the race so far. It hits Walberg with his own words (albeit from 2004) and speaks to an issue pretty much everyone in Michigan can relate to in some way. And the personal promise from Mark Schauer at the end to "fight for your job" doesn't hurt either. I don't have much more to say about this one. What do you think? Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Economy, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Monday, September 29, 2008 Siena Heights Debate Announced - October 7Earlier in September, state Senator Mark Schauer's campaign manager sent the Walberg campaign a letter (.pdf) challenging Walberg to four televised debates-- one in each of the media markets covering the 7th District. The argument is that four televised debates would ensure that everyone in the district would have an easy opportunity to see the candidates. Walberg's campaign responded, essentially, that they were already committed to 12 candidate debates or forums, and more or less blew off Schauer's request. I think that's a missed opportunity for both candidates, but it's not anything I'm going to lose sleep over. But when will they debate? Adrian's Daily Telegram brings us the first one: Major candidates for two offices are expected Oct. 7 for a broadcast debate and From 8:30 to 9:15 p.m., the U.S. House candidates will discuss issues. They are(Emphasis added.) This is the first debate I've heard about so far, though it's possible that I missed others. This looks like the same debate I attended in 2006, though I won't be able to attend this year (unfortunately). A notable change-- only Congressman Walberg and Senator Schauer will be present. The minor party candidates included last time will not be included. It'll make the debate a little less exciting, but it will also allow for a clearer contrast between Walberg and Schauer, and should have a quicker pace than the one in 2006. Unfortunately, WLEN doesn't stream audio over their website, and I'm eager to get more than just the Telegram's article on it after the fact. If you think you can attend and would be able to provide either video or audio of the event, please contact me. Labels: Debates, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Saturday, September 27, 2008 Fatherhood In The 7th District
Brad Flory at the Jackson Citizen Patriot writes about fatherhood amidst the Walberg and Schauer campaigns:
It's very silly, yes, but it does a good job of driving home the ridiculousness of Walberg's advertisement, which actually does accuse Mark Schauer of wanting to give children pornography. Go read the whole thing, it's worth it. The ending is also powerful: Ouch. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Constitution, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Another Internal: Walberg 50, Schauer 40
From the Battle Creek Enquirer:
Tim Walberg has his own poll, and according to that one, he's leading the 7th Congressional District race.In addition to the Enquirer, Chetly Zarko got the memo from the Walberg campaign. It was conducted over September 15 and 16 by National Research, Inc., a Republican polling firm. It has a sample of 300 "likely voters" stratified geographically, and has a margin of error of 5.7 percent. Here are the results (with 7/08-09 results in parentheses where available, also +/- 5.7): Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg Walberg Favorable - Unfavorable Schauer Favorable - Unfavorable Obama vs. McCain Generic Congressional Ballot So, what does all of this mean? First, it means that either A.) the last Walberg internal was an outlier or B.) Mark Schauer has made an enormous nine-point gain since the beginning of August. The first one isn't a big deal-- it made Walberg's people feel good about themselves for a day. The second one should worry them a lot. Though, then again, here's what Walberg's pollster says: Despite the barrage of negative ads directed against him, Congressman Tim Walberg leads Mark Schauer 50%-40% according to our most recent congressional survey in the district, conducted on September 15 and 16 among 300 likely voters in the district. This represents a significant gain for Congressman Walberg, who was garnering 47% in our July survey. With his poll numbers now at 50%, Walberg enters the month of October with momentum.(Emphasis added.) That's quite a positive spin! Personally, I'd say that the significant gain goes to the one who, you know, actually gained more. It's also important to note that, with a 10-point lead in a poll with a margin of error of 5.7 percent, Walberg is now within the margin of error (barely) in his own polling. That's not what will get the headline, though. The magical 50 percent mark is an important one to the media, and one that I don't think Walberg has reached in any previous polling. (He also didn't reach it in 2006-- he had 49.99 percent of the vote). Last night, I wrote a partial defense of internal polling, saying that it's still useful and reliable. Now, I'm wondering if there might actually be a systematic difference between Schauer's polls and Walberg's polls-- namely, in the geographic breakdown and in the likely voter screen. Is Walberg oversampling Branch County and undersampling the youth vote? Or is Schauer oversampling Calhoun County and undersampling Hillsdale County? I don't know, and the campaigns don't release that kind of information. The reason I wonder about that is the name recognition. Only 55 percent know who Mark Schauer is in this poll, where 67 percent did in Schauer's last poll. Similarly, 86 percent know who Tim Walberg is in this poll, where it was only 76 in Schauer's poll. That kind of difference surprises me, and makes me think someone weighted the counties differently. Then again, both polls strike me as plausible, especially with the large margins of error. It really doesn't matter, though. There are 38 days until election day. That's more than enough time for everything to change. Overall, it was a good poll for Walberg, but maybe a better poll for Schauer. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Poll, Tim Walberg More On The Schauer Poll
While you're all watching Senators McCain and Obama, I thought I'd finally get around to writing more about the poll the Schauer campaign released. Just for a reminder, here's what the poll found:
Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg (Plus Undecideds, allocated based on stated partisan leanings) Name Recognition Walberg Job Performance So, what does all of this mean? Schauer's pollster, Andrew Myers, picks out one important finding: This survey demonstrates that Schauer’s communications are clearly taking root. Today Schauer is known by 67 percent of voters, a substantial 25 point jump in identification since MayThat's the big one, much more than the 42-36 headline. It shows that Schauer's breaking out of his Senate district and getting more attention elsewhere in the district. This is good-- it means the money they're spending on television ads and field organizing is working. It shows that the overall strategy of introducing Schauer to more voters is working. Remember, Schauer doesn't have to win Lenawee County or Hillsdale County to win the election, he just has to not lose too badly, and then perform well in his base. Man, I'd love to see a geographical breakdown of the results. Of course, by running mostly attack ads, Walberg might be helping to increase Schauer's name recognition. Walberg's attacks might drive up some of Schauer's negatives, but it also makes sure people know that there's an alternative to Tim Walberg. Oh, the irony. But let's get back to that headline. Schauer leads, 42 to 36. But it's also an internal poll, commissioned by Mark Schauer through a Democratic polling outfit. It must be rigged, right? No. Just like Walberg's internal poll released a couple of months ago, I don't doubt that the poll was conducted with fair, legitimate polling practices. It's not in anyone's interest to pay for inaccurate polling-- the Schauer campaign probably cares a lot more about getting useful information than about sending out a good press release and having a favorable news cycle. Does that mean that this poll is accurate? No, not necessarily. A 95 percent confidence level means that 95 percent of the time, the poll will be correct to within the stated margin of error (in this case, 4.38 percent). Schauer's lead is within the margin of error, though it's better to be leading and within the margin of error than losing. But it's also possible that this is one of those 5 percent polls (like I think Walberg's was), where it's not accurate by more than the margin. Supposing Schauer's poll is absolutely correct, this is a big deal. There are still a lot of undecideds-- and a lot of people who are paying close attention to Obama-McCain, but haven't thought about Schauer-Walberg. But among those that are decided, Schauer is leading a sitting congressman by six points. That's a tough thing to do. I don't know that I'm saying anything new or interesting tonight, I just wanted to share a few thoughts. It's a good poll for Schauer. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Mark Schauer, Poll, Tim Walberg Thursday, September 25, 2008 Poll: Schauer 42, Walberg 36
UPDATE: Sorry for the delay. The poll was conducted by Myers Research & Strategic Services, who are the same ones that conducted the Schauer internal poll from May that was released a month or two ago. They're a Democratic firm, but that isn't necessarily a reason to doubt the numbers. More on that later.
The poll was conducted September 24 and 25, 2008 (CORRECTION: September 23 and 24), with a sample size of 500 "likely voters," and the respondents were "stratified geographically"-- in other words, this wasn't all Battle Creek. The margin of error is +/- 4.38 percent, with a 95 percent confidence level. Here are the results released today (previous results in parentheses, MoE +/- 4.00): Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg (Plus Undecideds, allocated based on stated partisan leanings) Name Recognition Myers also asks respondents to rate candidates on a "personal feeling thermometer," where 100 is very warm and 0 is very cold, with 50 neutral. Personal Feeling Thermometer And, finally: Walberg Job Performance Myers also says that "seven in ten" respondents believe the country is on the wrong track, which is where it was in their May poll, as well. I've got a lot of thoughts on this poll, which I'll be compiling this afternoon. I'll have more later today. ---- The Schauer campaign just released a poll-- Schauer 42, Walberg 36. More information and thoughts to come soon. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Poll, Tim Walberg Wednesday, September 24, 2008 Schauer Releases Third TV Ad
I'm not anywhere near done catching up on the news from the last two-and-a-half weeks, but the campaign steams forward today with another new television ad. This time, it's Mark Schauer who's going negative, albeit in defense of his own record.
My initial reaction to this ad was "Ouch." It's harsh, and drives home the "Tim Walberg is lying" message rather well. I think this is a decent ad-- it responds to Walberg's attacks without actually refuting them, but that would require more than just 30 seconds. At the same time, both sides going this negative in September might turn a lot of people off by November. You have to respond, but I hope that Schauer doesn't go all negative, the way Walberg has. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Tuesday, September 23, 2008 Schauer Releases "Truth Squad" Videos
Catching Up... -- Fitzy
For quite a while now, I've written about how Mark Schauer's campaign has been using the internet in smart and innovative ways, as well as their strong outreach program with blogs and people like me. It's really very impressive, and they decided to use the medium yet again to respond to Tim Walberg's attack ads: Truth Squad: Walberg Attacks Schauer Record of Helping Business - Released September 11, 2008 in response to Walberg's attack ad, "Jobs" (Coverage Here) and Truth Squad: Walberg Lies Again - Released September 17, 2008 in response to Walberg's attack ad, "Children's Future" (Coverage Here) I like the format of these videos-- the true/false message is effective (and kind of funny), and, for the most part, they refute Walberg's attacks fairly well. (In some cases, it changes the subject, refocusing on Walberg's support for a 23 percent sales tax, but it does so smoothly and plausibly. It's certainly a better segue than Walberg's pornography to taxes transition.) It's a good use of video and it offers a point-by-point response. Next time, I think some low, ominous piano chords might fit well when refuting Walberg's claims, to make the contrast with the hopeful music at the end more clear. But that's just me nitpicking. They're good videos. The problem is, these things don't work as television commercials. They go out over the supporter e-mail list and are seen by YouTube wanderers, but that's about it. And as of writing this, each video has between 600 and 700 views on YouTube. That's still more than double the number of views Walberg's attack ads have on YouTube (Man, they're really bad at this!), but it's nothing compared to how many will see Walberg's ads on television. That's where you come in. If you hear someone comment on Walberg's ads, send them these videos. Make sure the people you know see the other side of the story. These won't be viral YouTube sensations, no, but they have the potential to change a few minds. I'm guessing that we're going to see a lot more of these videos between now and November. I'll be posting them to the Schauer media page on Walberg Watch as they're released. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Economy, Mark Schauer, National Sales Tax, Taxes, Tim Walberg Walberg Releases Another Attack Ad
Catching Up... -- Fitzy
Congressman Tim Walberg released his third campaign advertisement on September 17, 2008. The ad is harsh-- a mother appears on camera and tells us about the horrors of Mark Schauer. And yet, something seems odd to me about the ad: Maybe it's just me, but it seems like this ad is trying to do to much. It ties together two attacks on Mark Schauer-- that he supposedly supports high taxes and that he supposedly supports sending pornography to children-- but those two attacks really don't fit together well. The narrative connecting them, which is that Schauer supposedly puts children's futures in jeopardy, strikes me as contrived and unnatural. The first time I watched the ad, my response was, "Huh?" Then again, the last line sticks, and if you're not paying close attention to the whole thing, the two attacks seem effective. Unfortunately, as is often the case, Walberg's attacks have a casual relationship with reality. The Schauer campaign released a press release in response to the part about child pornography: "This latest attack from Tim Walberg is another boldfaced lie from a floundering candidate. Mark Schauer has repeatedly and consistently voted to protect Michigan children, including supporting bills that prevent children from being exposed to pornography. The truth is that while Walberg has done nothing to save Michigan jobs, he will say or do anything to save his own."In other words, Schauer did vote against one bill, because it was flagrantly violating our constitutional rights, and would be struck down by the courts... which it was. But Schauer has a long record of voting for laws that can actually do something to protect children. Congressman Walberg, it takes a special kind of sleaze to accuse your opponent of wanting to send pornography to children. That's dishonest, disgusting, and just stupid. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Mark Schauer, Taxes, Tim Walberg Schauer Releases Second TV Ad
Catching Up... -- Fitzy
On September 14, state Senator Mark Schauer released his second television advertisement: There are some striking similarities and even more striking differences between this ad and Congressman Walberg's second television ad. Like Walberg's ad, the important part is the personal testimonial-- one person in front of the camera, sharing his thoughts on the candidate. These tend to be effective. It's good politics to show other faces than your own. But Walberg's second ad was an attack ad and very negative (with scary music and everything). It ended on a frightening note: "Our survival is in jeopardy if we let [Schauer raise taxes]." Schauer's ends with soft music, a message of hope, and a sense of accomplishment: "Our jobs are staying here, and we have Mark Schauer to thank for it." I don't know which message will be more effective. Anyone who's been watching politics for the last eight years knows that fear works and motivates voters, but the last year has shown that hope works, too. I just think it's interesting. Now that both candidates are on the air, I'd love to see some polling that asks about the effectiveness of the ads. But, sadly, pollsters don't come to me for ideas, nor do I have the money to commission polls myself. Also interesting, though less important in terms of moving voters, was the fundraising e-mail sent out by the Schauer campaign after releasing the ad. One part of the e-mail reads: We can't let Tim Walberg get away with another vicious smear campaign against me, like he did two years ago against Joe Schwarz.Obviously, this shows that Democrats know how to use fear, too, just in a different sort of way. But I think it's also telling that Schauer is starting to invoke Joe Schwarz in these e-mails. Schwarz is every Michigan Democrat's favorite Republican, and for many good reasons, and memories of the 2006 primary are a good motivator for Schauer's donor base. But Schwarz is still a powerful influence among independents and Republicans in the district, too. I'll be interested to see how much his name is used as we move closer to November. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Economy, Fundraising, Joe Schwarz, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Friday, September 05, 2008 Schauer Releases First TV Ad
This morning, Schauer for Congress sent out a fundraising e-mail that included a link to their first television ad. The timing of the ad, Schauer admits, is in part because of the attack ad released by Tim Walberg's campaign:
Here's the new ad: What do you think? Will this help get Schauer's name out in places like Lenawee, Hillsdale, and Branch Counties? Is it an effective ad? Is it an effective response to the Walberg ad? Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Economy, Fundraising, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Tuesday, September 02, 2008 Walberg Releases Attack Ad
This is going to get pretty nasty... From YouTube user SeventhDem:
This is Walberg's second television ad and, perhaps because of its negative tone, is not yet included on the Walberg for Congress YouTube channel. Here's the Schauer campaign response: WALBERG ATTACK MACHINE LIES ABOUT SCHAUER RECORD OF HELPING SMALL BUSINESSESThat's a fairly effective response to the ad and to Mike Shirkey, but at some point, the Schauer campaign will need a good response to the "deciding vote for the largest tax increase in Michigan's history" nonsense. It is nonsense, too (and hopefully I'll get a chance to write more about it), but a short, memorable response to the claim would be helpful. I am, however, surprised by an attack ad from the Walberg campaign this early. Normally, I would think they'd save this for October, and let their buddies at Freedom's Watch do the dirty work. This makes me think that the ad is mainly a response to the EPIC-MRA poll that came out last week. Recall: Overall, would you say that things in the United States are generally headed in the right direction, or have things pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?Walberg's campaign is reacting to what looks like momentum for Mark Schauer. It seems to me that they're worried, and with good reason. And, of course, remember that Mark Schauer hasn't gone on the air yet with his television ads. Walberg has been on the air since August 6th. UPDATE: Sometime between when I first posted this and now, the Walberg campaign put up their ad on YouTube. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Economy, Mark Schauer, Taxes, Tim Walberg Sunday, August 31, 2008 Obama-Biden In Battle Creek
Obama-Biden in Battle Creek:
I'll be there, and I'll have photos and thoughts either late tonight or tomorrow morning. For on-the-ground reports, check out the Battle Creek Enquirer's Twittering reporters. Meanwhile, share your thoughts and-- if you go-- your experience. It's not every day that a major presidential contender and his vice president come to Michigan's 7th District. It's even rarer when you can get in without having to pay $500 per plate. UPDATE (1:48am Sept. 01, 2008): I'm back from Battle Creek, with two memory cards full of photos and video, a notebook full of scribbles, and a pounding headache, the result of a beautiful, sunny, hot, cloudless day. I'll have lots of photos and more thoughts tomorrow, but for now, I'll leave you with a couple of images from the day/evening:     That's all for tonight. I'm going to bed now. UPDATE II: I'm not in bed quite yet. I had one fun fact to share. Today, 16,000 people saw Barack Obama and Joe Biden in Battle Creek. It was, basically, a normal crowd for a candidate that's got a lot of enthusiasm behind him. His big days are times like the 75,000 in Portland or the 80,000 in Denver. In 2004, President George W. Bush managed a crowd of 10,000 in Battle Creek. Today, John McCain also had a big crowd, but rather than a routine, normal size, it was his biggest ever, thanks to his vice presidential bounce. How big was it? 17,000. Crowd size isn't everything, no, but it's not nothing, either. Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Mark Schauer Thursday, August 28, 2008 Walberg On Michigan Business Success: "Bummer"
A lot of people don't know much about a man named Homer Stryker, but they should. Raised in Athens, Michigan, he was a teacher, a World War I soldier, a doctor, and an inventor. As an orthopedic surgeon in Kalamazoo, he began building devices that improved the comfort of the patients he was treating. The company he founded-- Stryker Corp.-- has grown into a Fortune 500 company and a leader in medical technologies.
But best of all, they're still in Kalamazoo, Michigan. With nearly 19,000 employees worldwide, the world headquarters and much of the manufacturing is still in Michigan. This is the perfect Michigan success story. It shows that Michigan businesses can thrive and be successful and stay in Michigan. It shows that hard work and creativity can lead to great results. This is the sort of success story politicians should be talking about all the time. So what does Tim Walberg say about it while touring a hospital? (Emphasis added.) "Bummer." That's his reaction to a Michigan success story. Why? Jon Stryker, one of three billionaire grandchildren of Stryker's founder, has in recent years funded numerous liberal causes, and his Coalition for Progress has contributed to Schauer's 2008 campaign.Yup. Tim Walberg doesn't like Stryker because one of the grandchildren of the founder is a Democrat. And it's true-- Jon Stryker has spent a lot of money on his political activities. It's much like the many members of the Club for Growth, who funded the congressman's 2006 campaign. To his credit, Walberg eventually acknowledged that he was wrong: In the end, Walberg noted that the company is a separate entity and said, "If Stryker makes the best hospital bed, that's the one I want to be in."But an initial reaction says a lot. In the comments on the Battle Creek Enquirer article, user DSMi59 wrote: His comment about Stryker and it's politics is a good guage of how he values Michigan businesses. It isn't the business he appreciates, one who chooses staying in Michigan and making local employment possible, it's that Stryker supports the wrong political party. He resents being in a hospital bed manufactured in his own state. Bummer, indeed!And Michigan Liberal's Eric B. wrote: He could have said that he was proud to have been in a bed made by the nation's best workers, right here in Michigan, in one of the nation's best hospitals. He could have said that. Didn't.Congressman Walberg, perceptions mean a lot, and as a public figure, you're in a position that attracts a lot of attention. "Bummer" doesn't convince businesses to stay in Michigan. It's possible that we're all being a little too sensitive, but seriously, "bummer"? That's the most intelligent thing you can think of? For the record, I've got no problem buying cabinetry from Merillat, despite the numerous times that the Merillat name shows up in Walberg's FEC filing. For that matter, Battle Creek Unlimited still does plenty of great things for that city, so don't judge them harshly just because their CEO contributed $500 to Tim Walberg's re-election campaign. Business is business, and politics is politics. In a state like Michigan, I don't care who you vote for, as long as you're providing jobs and helping your community. It's too bad Tim Walberg doesn't feel the same way. Labels: 2008 Election, Economy, Fundraising, Issues, Jon Stryker, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Obama, Biden Visit Battle Creek On Sunday
It's not exactly news about the 7th District race, but it is happening in Battle Creek and state Senator Mark Schauer will be there, so it qualifies for this blog.
It's been confirmed. Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has scheduled a rally for Sunday in Battle Creek.Even if you're a Republican, I'd encourage you to look into this and see if you can attend. It's not every day that you get to see the man who may be our next president in person. And, hey, maybe he might just change your mind. Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Mark Schauer Monday, August 25, 2008 EPIC-MRA Poll: Walberg 43, Schauer 40
UPDATE: Full poll results are at the bottom, via WXYZ.
For the Detroit News, EPIC-MRA brings us a new poll: Walberg of Tipton leads Schauer, a state senator from Battle Creek by 43-40 percent, which is within the poll's 4.9-point error margin. A decisive 14 percent of voters in the district are undecided.(Emphasis added.) The Schauer campaign sent out a press release: NEW INDEPENDENT POLL SHOWS DEAD HEAT IN MICHIGAN'S 7TH DISTRICTThis really does look bad for Walberg. He's still leading, and, contrary to the Schauer press release, it's not a "dead heat," but it is within the margin of error. That's a lot closer than it should be for an incumbent in a lean-Republican district. It's certainly a lot closer than the internal poll the Walberg campaign released last month. As the Schauer campaign points out, this also comes after a few weeks of Walberg being on the air, yet he's losing ground against a challenger who has yet to really advertise. Both sides are the beneficiaries (and victims) of independent attacks. Perhaps more significant than the Walberg-Schauer result is the job performance result. Recall: Voters, by 43-32 percent, give Walberg negative ratings for his job performance.That's ridiculously awful. A net 11 point disapproval means that even the Republican base is disappointed in him. I'd be interested to see where Schauer stands on name identification. If it's still relatively low, combined with Walberg's negative ratings, then we can expect to see the race tighten further. Maybe this isn't a conservative district after all! ----- Via WXYZ, the full results. 7TH DISTRICT RESULTS There's a lot to digest there. UPDATE II: Fixed typos. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Mark Schauer, Poll, Tim Walberg Friday, August 22, 2008 Walberg Lenawee Kickoff Disappointing?
A short post now, then I've got a much more important post coming up next.
Today, Congressman Walberg held his Lenawee County Campaign Kickoff:
I spoke earlier with someone who attended Walberg's kickoff rally. How many people showed up? 10. Including staff. Contrast this with Mark Schauer's town hall in Adrian a couple of weeks before the primary, which had somewhere between 60 and 70 people attend. Walberg's still got the advantage, but he can only draw a crowd of 10 in Lenawee County? If that's true, then he's got plenty of reasons to be worried about November. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Thursday, August 21, 2008 Schauer Campaign Video: "The Things People Say"
From my inbox last night:
Dear [---], And, here's the video, called "The Things People Say": I'm more than a little embarrassed that I'm represented by this man... Labels: 9/11 Commission, ANWR, Energy, Environment, Great Lakes, Health Care, Iraq, Issues, Mark Schauer, Oil, Tim Walberg Walberg Increases Internet Operation
I've repeated a number of times that the internet is still the best untapped resource for political campaigns to reach out to supporters and win over undecided voters. Mark Schauer has been doing a fantastic job, with a number of innovative ideas and embracing dynamic content. Up until the primary, Tim Walberg's attempts at using the internet were disappointing.
This may be changing. Tim Walberg's campaign has significantly increased his internet operation, now with a website, a blog, a Twitter feed, a Facebook page, and a YouTube channel. So far, this is impressive-- though, it's worth noting that Mark Schauer had all of these long before Walberg, with the exception of the Twitter feed.  So does this mean that Tim Walberg is pulling even with Mark Schauer on the internet? Well, no, not yet. On the brand new Walberg for Congress blog, there is exactly one post as of today. It's very nice, with photos and whatnot, but it came last Wednesday, and so far, there hasn't been any indication of any more activity. Contrast this with the Schauer blog, where Senator Schauer and his communications director have something new to say every day, including information that might actually be useful for supporters. On the Walberg for Congress YouTube channel, there is only one video, the first Walberg campaign ad. That's fine, because it'll get greater exposure for your ad and its message. But Mark Schauer's YouTube page has 16 videos so far. Of those, eight are of Schauer speaking directly to viewers and to voters, and another six are of public appearances where he's speaking about policy. Rather than five scripted lines and a motorcycle, Schauer is talking about the issues that people care about, and he's effectively using the medium. The point this, of course, is to show that Walberg's internet operation is still lacking compared to Schauer's. But it doesn't have to be. As much as I want to see Mark Schauer elected, I'd also like to see candidates in both parties effectively use technology to reach voters. Schauer's team is doing that. Walberg's team has all of the pieces in place, but hasn't bothered to use them yet. If they do, then we could have an exciting race on our hands. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Mark Schauer, Netroots, Tim Walberg Thursday, August 14, 2008 Freedom's Watch Robocalls; Schauer Challenges Walberg
This afternoon, a little after 3:00pm, I received a phone call... from Freedom's Watch. It was a robocall, repeating the same talking points from the deceptive and largely false radio ad they've been running (minus the RAND study citation).
These things are annoying, and frankly, I hope that bring out the robocalls this early in the election backfires on them. Nobody I've talked to has said that they like or appreciate these kinds of calls. At least when it's a person and when it's a campaign, you can voice your displeasure and be taken off the call list. These invade your privacy and threaten to repeat with no possible recourse. Then, I got this press release in my inbox: SCHAUER INVITES WALBERG TO JOIN HIM IN PLEDGE AGAINST ROBOCALLSThank you, Senator Schauer, for rejecting these sorts of attacks and this waste of time. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Energy, Freedom's Watch, Issues, Mark Schauer, Robocalls Monday, August 11, 2008 Schauer Introduces Energy Plan in Michigan Senate
While Tim Walberg is staging a protest in Washington, D.C. and waving his energy plan around on television, Democratic challenger and state Senator Mark Schauer introduced a bill in the Michigan Senate to do what he can do to increase energy production and create jobs:
Highlights of Schauer’s “Drill Responsibly-Create New Energy Jobs” include:As far as I can tell, the text of Schauer's bill isn't online yet. I'll add a link as soon as I can find it. We'll have to wait another day for more in-district media coverage, but the Chicago Tribune gives us this AP article: LANSING, Mich. - Oil and gas companies would pay Michigan higher royalty fees when leasing government-owned land under a plan by a top Democrat who wants to spend the extra revenue on renewable energy projects.I don't know enough about the proposal yet to speak intelligently on it. Chris Gautz at the Citizen Patriot seems to think investing the money in environmentally-friendly energy research isn't allowed by the state constitution, but I'm not sure if that's true or not. Even so, this is a good contrast to the Walberg energy plan, which is a "give everything to the oil companies" plan. It'll be interesting to see the coverage this gets moving forward. Labels: 2008 Election, Energy, Issues, Mark Schauer, Michigan Senate, Oil, Tim Walberg $40,000 DCCC Radio Ad Buy
Last week, I wrote about the factually inaccurate Freedom's Watch radio ad attacking Mark Schauer, and that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee would be responding. You can listen to their response.
Is this a serious ad buy? I'd say so: The committee is looking toward New York, where they scored big gains in 2006, with a small buy against Rep. Randy Kuhl; to Missouri, with a sizable $26,000 purchase in Republican Rep. Sam Graves' district; to Michigan, where Rep. Tim Walberg will be hit with the biggest buy, at almost $40,000; and even in Idaho, where cheap television rates mean the $11,000 spent against freshman Rep. Bill Sali could go a long way.(Emphasis added.) They're spending $175,000 across ten districts. Spending $40,000 in Michigan's 7th alone is significant. If you've heard either the Freedom's Watch ad or the DCCC ad, feel free to share what station and when in the comments. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, DCCC, Democratic Party, Freedom's Watch, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Wednesday, August 06, 2008 DCCC to Respond to Attacks
Following the "Freedom's Watch" radio ads, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will respond:
Michigan's 7th District is one of the 10 districts on the list. It's good to see someone call them out on their lies and distortions. The DCCC also has a website exposing "Freedom's Watch" and it's unsavory backers. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, DCCC, Freedom's Watch, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg Independent Group Releases Attack Ad
That didn't take long...
"Freedom's Watch" is a 501(c)(4) group (website and DCCC counter-website) which has appeared this election year, mostly bashing Democrats and run by ex-Bush administration officials. Today, they released this radio ad: "70% of Americans are in favor of exploring for off shore oil, but Mark Schauer says no. Mark Schauer is against a bill that would expand domestic oil exploration, build new refineries, and increase wind energy. And he's endorsed by a liberal special interest group in favor of high gas prices. Schauer said expanding the search forAudio file here. Notice that they managed to work the word "liberal" in there. Will "JoeSchwarzIsALiberal.com" be replaced by "MarkSchauerIsALiberal.com"? That sounds like a tough attack that might stick, except that we get this from Schauer in the Daily Telegram yesterday: State Sen. Mark Schauer said Monday there needs to be compromise from both sides of the aisle on providing opportunities to assist Michigan’s economy.(Emphasis added.) In other words, Schauer supports offshore drilling, just not opening up everything, everywhere, the way Walberg does. If Tim Walberg thought there was oil in the Grand Canyon, I'm sure he'd toss out the tourists and start drilling. Unfortunately, in these sorts of debates, it's often the side that shouts the loudest that wins. Even so, Schauer has the much more reasonable position, and he's right when he says this isn't something we can drill our way out of. UPDATE: In addition to fixing a couple of typos, I wanted to point something else out. The ad says: As an elected official, Mark Schauer can do something, but he refuses to explore for oil here in the US.So, wait a second... Schauer currently serves in the state Senate, which means that he can do something, but only in the state of Michigan. When we're talking about offshore drilling, we mean in the Atlantic or the Pacific, and, since Michigan doesn't have coastline on either of those (at least, the last time I checked), he can't do anything about drilling offshore in his current job. That is, unless Freedom's Watch wants to drill in the Great Lakes. But everyone except for Tim Walberg agrees that drilling there is a horrible idea. UPDATE II: Eric B. at Michigan Liberal also responds, doing the research that was next on my list of things to do: This is a deceptive ad. It cites a study that's not talking about offshore drilling to attack Schauer on offshore drilling, even though Schauer already supports reasonable offshore drilling. Ahh! If this is what it'll be like until November, I might go a little crazy. Someone, please, please, please, write a letter to the editor refuting this crap, before it goes unchallenged for too long. As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization. Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Energy, Freedom's Watch, Issues, Mark Schauer, Oil, Tim Walberg Tuesday, August 05, 2008 Primary Election Results Thread - Schauer Wins
I'm finally home for the results. I'll be updating the results as I get them:
Michigan's 7th District - Democratic Party 342 of 342 Precincts Reporting (100%) Sharon Renier - 9,034 - 34% Mark Schauer - 17,268 - 66% Sources: Michigan Secretary of State Battle Creek Enquirer Lansing State Journal Daily Telegram Detroit News UPDATE: For county-by-county results: Branch County (.xls file) (Renier 310, Schauer 242; Walberg 4,909) Calhoun County (Renier 1,131, Schauer 6,538; Walberg 6,023) Eaton County (Renier 1,340, Schauer 1,852; Walberg 6,331) Hillsdale County (Renier 416, Schauer 325; Walberg 4,550) Jackson County Lenawee County Washtenaw County UPDATE II: For those curious, in the 2006 primary, the total Democratic vote was 19,753. Renier won with 10,402. UPDATE III: As counties finish counting, they're updating the Michigan Secretary of State page with totals. I'm adding in final results in each county, with the county winner in italics. UPDATE IV: The Schauer campaign claims victory: SCHAUER WINS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY, VOWS TO FIGHT FOR MICHIGAN JOBSUPDATE V: From the Jackson Citizen Patriot, Schauer and Renier react: "This is just one step toward winning this seat back," Schauer said. "We need to take this seat back from someone who is extremely out of touch with this district and with the needs of our state."and Renier, of Munith, said her apparent defeat is a loss for the people of Michigan.I understand that Sharon is frustrated, and I have nothing but respect for her and for the passion she brought to the race in 2004, 2006, and this year. I only hope that she eventually realizes that Senator Schauer is a solid progressive, a strong candidate, and a much better alternative than Tim Walberg. I'm done for the night. Democrats have a nominee. Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Mark Schauer, Sharon Renier Primary Election Open Thread
Polls have been open since 7:00am and close at 8:00pm. For information on voting, click here. To find your polling place, click here.
I might be a little late with results tonight, but you can see them yourself here. Share your primary election story. Did you vote for Walberg, Renier, or Schauer? If you're in Jackson County, who do you want to win the county clerk race? In Lenawee County, how about the sheriff's race? In Calhoun County, what do you think will happen in the state representatives candidates' primary? This is an exciting day. I'll be voting soon myself. UPDATE: For those interested, the Schauer campaign is holding a post-election party in Delta Township: WHO: Mark SchauerI'm not able to make it, but if any loyal readers are interested in going and reporting back, that'd be a great use of the "Submit Content" feature. No word yet about a Renier party. I'm actually going to go vote now. Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Mark Schauer, Republican Party, Sharon Renier, Tim Walberg Monday, August 04, 2008 Mark Schauer's Pre-Primary Fundraising
I fell a little bit behind on this... I figured I should get it up before the primary (tomorrow).
Rather than file a second quarter report with the FEC only to file again a week and a half later, both Congressman Walberg and state Senator Schauer chose to combine their reports. The following covers Mark Schauer's fundraising in the period from April 01, 2008 to July 16, 2008:
Senator Schauer raised $424,604.48 in the three-and-a-half months covered here. Of that, $262,844.48 came from individuals and $161,760.00 came from PACs. Schauer has raised a total of $1,331,557.22 for this election cycle. After spending $403,755.66, he has $928,686.45 cash-on-hand. In addition to all of that, he raised another $20,000 in large contributions since the deadline. Itemized donors ($200+) can be found here. Disbursements can be found here. There's no other way to say it, Mark Schauer has a lot of money to play with. And against a primary opponent with $3.00 in the bank (that's the next post), it seems fairly likely that we'll see a Schauer-Walberg race in November. As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer Tuesday, July 29, 2008 Schauer Endorsed By AA News and Detroit Free Press
There have been two significant pre-primary endorsements, though both from out-of-district newspapers. First, the Ann Arbor News:
They also have some unkind things to say about Sharon Renier: It's puzzling how Renier, an organic farmer from Munith, has done so well in past Democratic primaries. We can only assume it's because most voters don't have the opportunity to talk to her directly. We did, and were taken aback by her virulent hostility toward Schauer and her extremist statements. As one example, she said she fears for our nation's sovereignty because our government is secretly working to create a North American Union, similar to the European Union. That claim is the kind of conspiracy theory that gets great play on the Internet, but isn't taken seriously elsewhere - nor should it be.Ouch. That seems... harsh. Meanwhile, the Detroit Free Press has this to say: District 7 (all or parts of seven counties in the south-central Lower Peninsula and the cities of Battle Creek, Jackson, Hillsdale, Coldwater, Adrian and Charlotte): State Sen. MARK SCHAUER of Battle Creek would be the strongest Democratic candidate against U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, R-Tipton, who was elected two years ago. Schauer, 46, is the Senate Democratic leader and a proven vote-getter in areas that lean Republican. He has been a thoughtful legislator, focused on protecting and creating jobs.So far, these are the only pre-primary newspaper endorsements I know about. Neither of these are all that unexpected, and I've got to think that these aren't endorsements Sharon Renier was really hoping to get. She's running an anti-establishment, "voice of the people" campaign that doesn't rely on traditional campaigning or endorsements from institutions like unions or newspapers. Endorsements like this reinforce the idea that Schauer is just "more of the same," as Renier claims. At the same time, this has to hurt Renier... a lot. She's got a serious cash disadvantage, and without the ability to put out her own message, she needs free or low-cost alternatives to break through. I've already written about how she's not using the internet (though, apparently, she claims she is), and a major newspaper endorsement could boost her campaign significantly. If she can't manage any endorsements, she misses one of her few opportunities. As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization. NOTE: This disclaimer was added a few days late... I keep forgetting to add it at the end. Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Endorsements, Mark Schauer, Sharon Renier Friday, July 25, 2008 Weekend Round-up
I'm leaving in a little while for Chicago and far more important things than politics, so posting is going to be light for a few days. To tide you over, here are a few significant items.
Fundraising Senator Mark Schauer's pre-primary fundraising report can be found here. The numbers? Raised (2Q+16 days): $427,714.16 Raised (Cycle-To-Date): $1,331,557.22 Contributions From Individuals: $262,844.48 Cash-On-Hand: $928,686.45 I will do a more complete post next week. Housing From the comments, we get a link to this story: Of course he did. I'll write more about that next week, too. Iraq From the Lansing State Journal, we get this passage from an article on Mark Schauer and Sharon Renier: So... Sharon Renier has a secret plan to end the war. It's possible she was misquoted or misrepresented, but that sounds a little Nixonian to me. Party Unity Also from that Lansing State Journal article: This I find troubling. Of all people, Sharon Renier should understand why almost anyone would be better than Tim Walberg. Walberg Watch Video of the Week For your enjoyment: As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization. Labels: Affordable Housing, Democratic Party, Environment, Fundraising, Global Warming, Iraq, Mark Schauer, Sharon Renier, Tim Walberg, Video Thursday, July 24, 2008 Pre-Primary Candidate Events
Bumped. See update below. -- Fitzy
With the primary less than two weeks away, I thought I would briefly highlight the upcoming candidate events in the 7th District. Partly, this is to remind everyone of the nifty candidate event map now on Walberg Watch, but mostly, I wanted to let everyone know where they can find the three major-party candidates-- Walberg, Schauer, and Renier-- in the run-up to the election. There's no better way to judge a candidate than to meet him or her face to face. That was the goal, anyway. Unfortunately, judging from their websites, the only candidate holding any events between now and the primary (August 5) is Mark Schauer. Between now and the primary, Senator Schauer is holding July 28 - Schauer: Chelsea Town Hall (5:30pm) - Chelsea Depot, 125 Jackson St.Sharon Renier's website still links to "Votestock," which was July 12, and here's what Tim Walberg's "Upcoming Events" page says: Upcoming EventsI mean, I know that you don't have a primary opponent, Congressman Walberg, but you could at least pretend to care! Meanwhile, Mark Schauer will be all over the district holding town hall events. These sorts of events are great, because it gives you a chance to ask about anything on your mind. Are you a Democrat who wants to know more? Come get to know the candidate! Are you a Republican and Schwarz supporter that doesn't like Walberg, but you're suspicious of Democrats? Come see if Schauer can reassure you! You can ask him anything you want! Really, I'm a big fan of this sort of thing. I know I'll definitely be at the Lenawee County town hall. UPDATE: I'm bumping this post back up to the top, because I really do feel that getting a chance to meet candidates is much, much more important than fundraising data. And, as if in answer to my post (though I doubt it very much), the Walberg campaign updated their "Upcoming Events" page: Upcoming EventsNote that only the Chelsea Summerfest appearance is actually before the primary, so only it really falls under the subject of this post. He'll be in downtown Chelsea on Saturday from 2pm to 4pm. Walberg's Jackson Campaign Kickoff, meanwhile, will be the Thursday after the primary from 7pm to 9pm. He promises ice cream, which means I may be forced to skip my other plans for that night and attend. Meanwhile, Senator Schauer announced another town hall, which I have added to the original post above. This one will be in Battle Creek the day before the primary. As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Sharon Renier, Tim Walberg Mark Schauer Out-Raises Walberg... Again
Senator Schauer's pre-primary FEC report isn't on the internet yet, though I'm sure it will be by tomorrow. However, the campaign did send out this press release:
SCHAUER BREAKS OWN RECORD FOR FUNDRAISING IN 7TH DISTRICTIt'll be interesting to see all the details. This really is an incredible amount of money for a challenger to be raising. As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer Tuesday, July 22, 2008 Internet Campaigning - Schauer Leads Pack
Given the fact that I started this website and am active in the Michigan and national blogosphere, I'm assuming that its pretty obvious that I think internet-based political campaigning is both important and an exciting development in politics. You can reach potential voters more cheaply than traditional mailings, you can do it without bothering people with "robocalls," and you can target voting groups that might not ordinarily be recipients of the standard direct mail and door-to-door campaigns (especially young people). It's simply too good of an opportunity to pass up.
Back in October of 2007, I wrote up an overview of the internet operations of Mark Schauer, Sharon Renier, and Tim Walberg. That piece was in the context of something Jerome Armstrong wrote last year for the New Politics Institute, a memo which still serves as a strong set of guidelines for any campaign that wants to use the internet. While the whole thing is worth reading, I will share here only the six recommendations I mentioned last time: Six Things You Can Do Now(Yes, he numbered them wrong. I'm sure that Jerome will proof-read more closely next time.) Last time around, I went through and offered my thoughts on each candidate in the context of each recommendation. I'm not going to do that again, but it's important to have these recommendations in mind. This time, I'd just like to share the state of the internet race as it stands now, and offer some thoughts. Ken Proctor - Libertarian Nominee I'm starting with Ken Proctor because he has, by far, the worst website of the bunch. Why is that? For starters, it's still got the "thank you" message from his last run for office, when he ran against Bart Stupak in the 1st Congressional District. Unlike Ron Paul, whose supporters managed to tap into the strong libertarian leanings of many on the internet, Ken Proctor has done little to take advantage of that energy. Frankly, I'm not surprised. I just didn't want to leave anyone out. Tim Walberg - Republican Incumbent (Presumptive nominee) I can't figure Tim Walberg out. On the one hand, he's been quick to embrace all of the appearances of taking internet-based campaigning seriously. He has his own blog on his official House website, he's reached out to RightMichigan.com, Townhall.com, and uses The Hill's congressional blog. Now, he even has a Facebook page, which currently has 283 supporters. From all of this, it looks like he's taking the internet seriously. ... Then there's his campaign website. Honestly, it's horrible. It's not just the low-resolution .jpg images in the top sidebar, though that always bugs me. The design is counter-intuitive, the front page is kind of empty, and the content is lacking. (Only four issues, and each with less than two paragraphs of text? Only one press release? No photos?) Really, Congressman? Is that the best you can come up with? But it's worse than that. The campaign website has nothing of the "Web 2.0" innovations that have made online activism so interesting. There is no video, even though his press office has made an effort to put some videos on YouTube. There's no blog and there's nothing to allow any user or voter feedback. Every so often, they update their "Upcoming Events," but usually, that section is empty. There's nothing dynamic or interesting about it, and every page is static and, frankly, boring. The purpose of the Walberg for Congress website is not to engage voters. Instead, it's designed to serve as a repository for press releases-- except that they haven't bothered to put any up yet. Sharon Renier - Democratic Candidate Sadly, as disappointing as Walberg's website was, Sharon Renier's is a step lower. Although she has written a great deal about the issues, she lacks the same features I mention above. Her "News/Press" page only has one story and her "Events" page is still a .pdf flyer for "Votestock," which is now over. Even Walberg updates his "Upcoming Events" some of the time! For Renier, whose campaign doesn't have a lot of money to work with, a strong internet presence would be a valuable investment. Not only is it cheap, but it has the potential of bringing in more contributions. I just don't get why Proctor, Walberg, and Renier haven't put more time into this. Mark Schauer - Democratic Candidate Mark Schauer, on the other hand, has been doing it right. His website, though a little cluttered, is aesthetically pleasing and has plenty of pages linked from it. But it's not just content in the form of issue positions and press releases. There are numerous features that keep a casual viewer on the page-- video, action items, and even a form for you to share your thoughts on issues. This is in addition to the Facebook page (with 403 supporters as of today). Simply put, Schauer's website isn't boring, and it'll keep people interested and on it. It sounds superficial, but the longer a regular voter stays on your page, the more likely they are to absorb the information you want to convey. But it also doesn't have to be a one-way conversation. Today, the Schauer for Congress campaign announced the new campaign blog, which the senator promises to update regularly. Now, part of it is just that I'm a big fan of blogs, but it's not just that. In addition to creating and quickly updating content, it allows readers to give immediate feedback. While Senator Schauer himself might not see it right away, someone from his campaign certainly will, and can (hopefully) address concerns. Now, there are still things Schauer could do. When Senator Chris Dodd was running for president, he and adviser Tim Tagaris experimented with live webcasts of campaign events and the senator backstage. The Obama campaign has merchandise that can be purchased and counts as a campaign contribution, and has the "MyBarackObama" section, so that supporters can have their own corner of the website. Innovations like that would be incredible. Even so, MarkSchauer.com is light-years ahead of the other campaign websites. Politics has changed dramatically in even the last five years, thanks in large part to new technology. The Schauer campaign seems to get that fact, but the others haven't caught up. As with the previous post on the subject, this is just an overview, but it's an important aspect of the campaign that deserves more attention. Will a pretty website win an election? No, probably not. But it's a smart investment, and it really doesn't cost that much. As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Ken Proctor, Mark Schauer, Netroots, Sharon Renier, Tim Walberg Thursday, July 10, 2008 An Announcement
Since early 2007, I stated that Walberg Watch would not endorse a candidate prior to the Democratic primary. The purpose of this website is to oppose Congressman Tim Walberg and support the Democratic nominee as the most progressive and most viable alternative to Walberg. As the most prolific blogger on Walberg Watch, I decided not to use this medium to support the candidate that I preferred.
This will not change. However, in the interests of transparency, I decided that I needed to mention this. Yesterday, I began volunteering with the Schauer for Congress campaign out of the Lenawee County office. Prior to the primary, I will not be using this as a platform to support Mark Schauer, and even after the primary, the main focus will remain on Tim Walberg, not the Democratic nominee. I will continue to write about Senator Schauer and Sharon Renier, but will include an end-note about this. I'm certainly not going to try to be biased one way or another, but it's up to the reader to judge if I've been successful. I have enormous respect for both Mark Schauer and Sharon Renier, and wish them both luck. Besides that, all I can say is that I hope everyone remembers to go out and vote on August 5th. Labels: 2008 Election, Fitzy, Mark Schauer, Volunteer Tuesday, July 08, 2008 7th District Media Markets
One of the most interesting political resources to emerge this year has been FiveThirtyEight.com, an election projection blog focusing on the presidential campaign. The site is run by Nate Silver (formerly blogging as "Poblano"), a professional statistician who took the tools of his day job-- analyzing baseball statistics-- and applied them to the presidential race.
Over the weekend, Nate took a look at television advertising in the presidential race, and whether or not it was efficient to advertise in certain states. As an example, suppose John McCain wanted to contest New Jersey. Because of the nature of television markets in that part of the country, McCain would need to spend money on ads in the New York and Philadelphia markets in order to cover the entire state. However, New York and Philadelphia are expensive and will cover a lot of non-New Jersey voters, so McCain would be wasting money on an inefficient state. A similar problem faces Barack Obama with trying to win Virginia, as much of northern Virginia is covered by the Washington, DC market. However, that market also covers Maryland and DC itself, so a side effect of Obama targeting Virginia is unnecessary advertising in places where he shouldn't have to spend money. This got me thinking about Michigan's 7th Congressional District and the challenges it presents for television advertising. Of the 210 Designated Market Areas, there are four which cover the 7th District: Detroit, Lansing, Toledo, and Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo/Battle Creek.  The map above shows each of the different media markets, with approximate boundaries of the 7th District drawn in. It's worth noting that there is some overlap. For example, in the Lansing market, Toledo's WTOL and WTVG are "significantly viewed out-of-market broadcast stations," as are WWMT and WOOD out of Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo/Battle Creek. However, there's no one market which covers everyone in the district. So how do you advertise in that? If you want to make sure you reach everyone everywhere, you've got to advertise in all four markets. But is it really worth it to have your ads also be playing in Muskegon, Michigan and Findlay, Ohio at the same time? Normally, this is the point where I would find some sort of conclusion, but I don't have one. It could be that, because of the difficulty and cost to effectively advertise, the incumbent has the advantage. At the same time, if Mark Schauer is going to continue to out-raise Tim Walberg, any advertising war between them could lean toward Schauer, who might feel free to advertise in the Toledo or Detroit markets. But then, that's just speculation on my part. Anyway, I thought I would share something I found interesting. I'll be eager to see how the candidates spend money on advertising closer to November. Labels: Advertising, Fundraising, Mark Schauer, Media Markets, Tim Walberg Tuesday, July 01, 2008 NRCC Chair in District Today
From RealClearPolitics:
National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Tom Cole has had a rough few months, his party having lost three straight special elections and lagging seriously behind in fundraising. But the Oklahoman is back on his proverbial horse, using the Fourth of July recess to hit the campaign trail on behalf of endangered Republican incumbents and promising challengers in the upper Midwest.It's not a lot, but it caught my attention. I hadn't heard anything about this visit, and it's not listed on Walberg's campaign website. My best guess is that means Congressman Cole is here to raise money. He's a low-profile party leader, who can lean on local contributors but isn't a high enough profile to justify a public event. How helpful is someone like Tom Cole to Tim Walberg? Well, actually, not very helpful at all. He might accomplish something on this trip, but Cole has fundraising problems of his own-- namely, that he's bad at it. As of May, the National Republican Congressional Committee had $6.7 million on-hand. That sounds impressive, except that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $47.2 million cash-on-hand. This is a significant difference. Unfortunately for Tim Walberg, Tom Cole just isn't that good at his job. His attempts to recruit top-tier challengers against Democrats in Congress have been called a "disaster" by fellow Republicans, he has had a public feud with House Minority Leader John Boehner (R), and Republican members of Congress aren't willing to raise money for the NRCC. But Congressman Cole's problems don't end there. Under his watch, the NRCC was hit by a massive scandal, involving the committee's treasurer stealing $725,000 from the committee. That's not good, and, while it started prior to Cole's tenure as NRCC chair, it all came out under him. This is not the sort of thing that impresses potential contributors. In fact, it's so bad for Tom Cole that the Republican leadership in the House of Representatives is actively looking for a way to get rid of him. From The Hill, via Swing State Project: House GOP leaders spent Thursday trying to put the best spin on the disappointing defeat by publicly relaunching a legislative agenda they unveiled a day earlier complete with a new slogan: the “change America deserves.” Privately, however, GOP leaders were considering their options, as well as reaching out to possible replacements for National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.). (Emphasis added.) That's right. Tim Walberg is getting help from the guy that no one likes. If Walberg is hoping to impress the top Republican donors, especially former Schwarz supporters who might not be fans of Walberg, Tom Cole might not be the most effective strategy. Of course, the very fact that Congressman Walberg needs Cole's help sends a worrying message for Walberg. It reminds local Republicans once again that he's in trouble this year, and that they made a horrible mistake by getting rid of Joe Schwarz. Schwarz won an open seat election by a margin of 59 percent to 36 percent. Had he not been defeated by Walberg in the 2006 primary, he would have won reelection easily. Can we say the same about Tim Walberg? No.
(Emphasis added.) Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Joe Schwarz, Mark Schauer, NRCC, Republican Party, Tim Walberg, Tom Cole Registration Deadline on July 7
Today is July 1, 2008. We have four months left before the general election (plus a few days). But before that, we have the August 5 primary, where Democrats will choose between state Senator Mark Schauer and Sharon Renier.
But before that happens, we have a very important deadline coming up in less than a week. July 7 (next Monday) is the deadline to register to vote if you still want to be able to vote in the August 5 primary. I'm guessing that if you're reading Walberg Watch, you're probably already registered to vote. But if you're not, or if you know someone who's not but should be voting in this primary, here's some useful information, always available on our Action page: If you're not already registered:
Voting really is the most important action you can take as a citizen, regardless of whom you support. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Sharon Renier Wednesday, June 25, 2008 Walberg-Bush Fudraiser
Got $1,000? How about $5,000? Then you're good enough to see Tim Walberg and George W. Bush!
Tonight, President George W. Bush will be coming to Livonia, Michigan, to raise money for Congressman Tim Walberg and the other members of the Michigan Congressional delegation. Sadly, it's too late to RSVP, so if you haven't already purchased your $1,000 ticket or paid $5,000 for a photo with the president, you missed your chance. Here's the invitation (click for a larger image):  Now, don't be fooled. Congressman Walberg is listed last because of alphabetical order, but he's probably the one who's most in need of this fundraiser. This is the race already rated as a toss-up by Roll Call and the Cook Political Report, both of which are generally conservative in their ratings. There's no doubt that Walberg, who's fundraising has been lagging behind Mark Schauer, and who was out-raised by David Nacht last year, will appreciate some cash from Bush donors.Though, I couldn't help but notice the little note at the bottom of the invitation: Photo identification required for entry.So, not only do you have to pay $1,000 just to get in the door, but you have to leave any video equipment behind, because they don't want any evidence of what was being said to make it out into the rest of the world. A few observations: Tim Walberg doesn't want you to know about it. The fundraiser is taking place outside the 7th District, and no district newspaper has even mentioned it-- the only press coverage that mentions both Walberg and Bush with this event has been in the Detroit News. You will find no mention of this on Walberg's House website or campaign website. President Bush is very unpopular. Nationwide, an LA Times/Bloomberg poll taken between June 19 and June 23 put President Bush's positive rating at 24 percent and his negative rating at 68 percent. In Michigan, the Detroit News article mentioned above cites an EPIC/MRA poll that puts President Bush's job approval at a mere 22 percent for our state. Way back in March, a Detroit News/WXYZ poll of the 7th District found that in our district, with 47 percent Republicans or lean-Republican independents, Bush received only a 37 percent positive rating and a 62 percent negative rating. This was in March, when Bush was polling at 33 percent positive nationwide (according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll), so Bush has probably dropped in our district by a comparable margin. (In the Detroit News/WXYZ poll of this district in March, Tim Walberg received a 39 percent positive rating and a 38 percent negative, dangerous territory for an incumbent.) Republican elitists? Tim Walberg won't let you see him and the president together unless you pay a minimum of $1,000 for this posh leadership dinner, a dinner which will directly benefit him, and will take place outside of this district. Meanwhile, state Senator Mark Schauer, one of the Democratic candidates running to replace Walberg, is holding a repeat of the Pasty Pie challenge he held last fall: Our goal is to reach 100 donations between now and June 30. We will select a winner at random, and I will come to that person’s house and make a pasty pie for you and your family – and do the dishes!Here's the video from Jackson TV of Schauer cooking a pasty: Sharon Renier, the other Democrat running in the 7th District, is also holding an event soon-- "Votestock 2008" (.pdf), and all-day event featuring food and music, all to be held on Sharon Renier's own farm. So, when you compare Tim Walberg's event to his Democratic challengers, I have to ask, how is it that we're the people with the "elitist" reputation? Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, George W. Bush, Mark Schauer, Republican Party, Sharon Renier, Tim Walberg Friday, June 20, 2008 Telecom Immunity - Walberg Votes Yes
Much has already been written on this by many others, and the issue was largely covered on this blog in April. Still, it's worth bringing it up again, in light of recent developments. The Washington Post has a good summary of what's been happening.
Today, the House of Representatives voted on what is likely the last in a series of attempts to amend the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. Although Congress had more or less come to an agreement over the powers the executive branch ought to have, the remaining disagreement centered around whether telecommunications companies which cooperated with the Bush Administration's illegal wiretapping should receive immunity from privacy lawsuits, or whether courts should be allowed to decide if they did engage in wrong-doing. The bill passed by the House today includes a provision to give retroactive immunity to telecommunications companies. It passed by a vote of 293 to 129. Congressman Tim Walberg voted yes. Back in April, state Senator Mark Schauer released this video on his thoughts about the controversy: Labels: 110th Congress, FISA, Intelligence, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg, Walberg Voting Record, Warrantless Wiretapping Tuesday, June 17, 2008 Schauer Brings Jobs To Michigan
One of the things Tim Walberg repeats wherever he goes is that Michigan is in the middle of an economic crisis. And you know what? He's right. Michigan faces some very complicated problems which can't be solved by simple acts like cutting taxes for the rich, which seems to be Walberg's favorite strategy.
What Michigan needs right now is jobs, and to get those, it takes real leadership and thoughtful action, not loud rhetoric and bluster. It takes leaders who are willing to go out and talk about the things that make Michigan great, not go out and bash the state. Michigan needs someone who's willing to work on behalf of its residents, not on behalf of the elitists who have been financing Walberg. Thankfully, someone is actually doing something for the state. And, as luck would have it, he's also running for Congress. From the Schauer for Congress campaign: There's also a video: Senator Schauer used his position in government to actually help his district and his constituents. He brought jobs here. Congressman Walberg, what have you done for us? Labels: 2008 Election, Economy, Issues, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg New Feature - Candidate Event Map
Want to show up at a Walberg event to ask him some tough questions? Want to learn more about the Democratic candidates in person? Tired of having to search through candidate websites just to find what you're looking for?
Walberg Watch now has the solution. View Larger Map Key Red - Tim Walberg Dark Blue - Mark Schauer Light Blue - Sharon Renier Note: District boundaries may be off in a couple of places. I'll admit, this isn't perfect. The map can be a little cumbersome at times (ie. when it loads, sometimes it decides to center you over Montana), and the only events I can add are the events which Tim Walberg, Mark Schauer, and Sharon Renier choose to publicize on their websites. Still, I hope this turns out to be a good resource. Starting next week, the map will have a permanent place on the front page of the new and improved Walberg Watch. Right now, I'm just highlighting new features one by one. Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Sharon Renier, Tim Walberg Wednesday, May 14, 2008 7th District State House Races
Yesterday was the filing deadline, meaning that the candidates we already knew about-- Tim Walberg (R), Sharon Renier (D), and Mark Schauer (D)-- will be the only major-party candidates in the 7th District. I was so hoping for a GOP primary, but it appears to have been wishful thinking.
Over the next few days, I'd like to spend some time looking at the other races which might have an impact on the congressional race. It's important to remember that this isn't happening in a vacuum, and what other Democrats and Republicans running in our state do will have an impact on the contest which this blog follows. The big one, obviously, is the presidential race, followed by U.S. Senator Carl Levin's reelection bid. I hope to talk about other races, too, from county commissioners to the state Supreme Court, always through the lens of the 7th District. Tonight, however, I'd like to begin with the Michigan House of Representatives. The 7th Congressional District includes all or part of eight state House districts. The individuals who represent each district may not themselves live in the 7th District, but their political strength as they run for office has an impact. (Note: the Michigan Senate is not up for reelection this year, nor is the governor.) Listed below are the state House districts which comprise the 7th Congressional District, and my (brief) take on the 2008 elections in each. HD052 - Pam Byrnes (D) Pam Byrnes (D-Chelsea) represents this district, which makes up the majority of Washtenaw County (essentially, everything except Ann Arbor and the far east and south-east portions). Her district, which includes areas not in the 7th, is not solidly Democratic, having been represented for a long time by Gene DeRossett (R-Manchester), who was also a candidate in the GOP primary in 2004. In 2002, Byrnes defeated David Nacht (one-time 2008 candidate for Congress) in the Democratic primary, only to lose to DeRossett 53 to 47. When DeRossett retired/ran for Congress in 2004, Byrnes was back, winning the seat over Republican Joseph Yekulis 55 to 45. She was reelected in 2006 with about 63 percent of the vote. So, it's a lean-Democratic area (and growth of Ann Arbor only helps), but 2006 could have been a fluke in a wave election, and 2002 and 2004 were reasonably close. Byrnes is in good shape to be reelected to her third and final term (term limits). In a situation like this, one might expect the Republicans to field a reasonably strong candidate to run, build name recognition, and come back to win in 2010. It's exactly what Byrnes did and what many others have done before. Unfortunately for the GOP, that's not what they did. Representative Pam Byrnes (D) was the only candidate to file in the 52nd House District. What does this mean? There's now a popular Democrat who is more or less guaranteed reelection this fall. The vast majority of voters will be checking at least one box with a "D," and Byrnes will likely be working hard to convince the voters in her district to check a few more. In 2006, Sharon Renier only won the Washtenaw County portion of the district 50 percent to 47 percent. In 2008, I'm guessing Byrnes could help us improve that margin. HD057 - Dudley Spade (D) The 57th District (my own district) is represented by Dudley Spade (D-Tipton). The district encompasses all of Lenawee County except for Cambridge Township in the north. Now, some history. For 16 years, a man named Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) represented Lenawee County in the state House of Representatives. It was a conservative county, and it fit him quite well and liked reelecting him. Then, in 1996, a popular WLEN radio host named Doug Spade (D-Adrian) challenged Walberg for his seat. Spade didn't win, but he performed surprisingly well. When Walberg retired in 1998, Doug Spade was back, and won the seat. He was subsequently reelected in 2000 and 2002 by increasing margins-- he got 69.4 percent of the vote in 2002. Spade was a perfect for Lenawee County, representing its interests well while gently nudging it away from the far-right conservatism of Tim Walberg. More than that, Spade connected with the people of his district. In 2004, Doug was term-limited out and his brother Dudley Spade ran for the same seat. It's a sign of the strength of the Spade brand that he won his first term with about 59 percent over David Abraham (R-Tecumseh) in a year where John Kerry only got 45 percent. In 2006, Spade was supposed to get a strong challenge in Jim Koehn (R-Adrian), and ended up winning about 67 percent. Going into 2008, Spade's challenger will be Emma Jenkins (R-Adrian), who filed Monday. Jenkins hasn't held elected office since the early 1980s (on a township board), but she's active in the local GOP as a "footsoldier." Still, she lacks the name identification Abraham (a county commissioner) and Koehn (a prominent travel agent) had, and Spade is still pretty popular. Indeed, it's a bad sign for your candidacy when the worst thing you can say about your opponent is: Jenkins said she is looking forward to carrying the party banner in this year’s election against an opponent whom she also considers a friend.Or, in other words, "I'd vote for you if you were a Republican, and I don't like that you're helping educate children!" The problem is, the people of Lenawee County aren't partisan enough for this to be a motivating factor. They might lead Republican, but they like Dudley Spade. He should win reelection pretty easily. Depending on how popular Spade is and how good of a relationship he has with the Democratic nominee for Congress, he might have coattails similar to Byrnes. This could be a big deal, especially if Mark Schauer is really polling even with Walberg in Lenawee County. If Walberg can't count on Lenawee County, he's in trouble. HD058 - Bruce Caswell (R) Bruce Caswell (R-Pittsford) was first elected in 2002, representing a district spanning Hillsdale and Branch Counties, the two most reliably conservative counties in the 7th District. Caswell was elected and reelected by increasing percentages (66.9, 72.7, and 72.8 percent), but he's term-limited out for 2008. There are four Republicans hoping to replace him-- Kenneth Kurtz (R-Coldwater), Frank Plodzik (R-Coldwater), Don Shemel (R-Coldwater), and Steve Vear (R-Hillsdale). I'll admit right now, I haven't got the foggiest idea how this primary will turn out, but if it's particularly divisive, it might give the only Democrat running a chance. Her name is Jean Anne Kennedy-Windsor (D-Reading). I know very little about her, except that she was a candidate for uncommitted delegate at the 7th District convention earlier this year and that she was formerly known as Jean Elinor Perego. Still, I'm hopeful that she can put together a strong campaign and take advantage of Republicans who will be largely ignoring her. The better she can build the Democratic brand, the better her chances in November and the better our chances of ousting Tim Walberg. HD062 - Mike Nofs (R) Ah, Mike Nofs (R-Battle Creek). He's the foe of Calhoun County Democrats, winning Mark Schauer's seat when he moved from the House to the Senate. He won three elections (2002, 2004, 2006) with roughly the same share of the vote (53.2, 53.4, and 53.6 percent, respectively) in a district that went to John Kerry by 50.1 percent. But while Nofs might be eying Schauer's Senate seat if Schauer wins, Nofs can't run for reelection in 2008. This will probably be one of the hardest-fought state House districts in Michigan, with Susan Baldwin (R-Battle Creek) and Gregory Moore (R-Athens) facing Tim Nendorf (D-Battle Creek) and Kate Segal (D-Battle Creek). Being from the opposite end of the district, I don't have a good read of the primary for either party, but I have no doubt that all four are potentially strong candidates. Segal is currently chair of the Calhoun County Commission, and Nendorf is a young law student (23 years old) who has interned with Mark Schauer and Carl Levin. Regardless of the nominees, there will be a lot of energy put into this race, which will probably drive turnout up. But then, if Schauer is the Democratic nominee, one would hope he doesn't have to worry about turnout in Calhoun County. HD063 - Lorence Wenke (R) Although based in Kalamazoo County (and not in the 7th District), Lorence Wenke (R) represents a portion of Calhoun County. He's the Republican who, in 2006, got a little bit of attention by pointing out that the DeVos campaign was "plain dishonest." He's also not up for reelection, after winning in 2002, 2004, and 2006 with 57, 59, and 55 percent, respectively. In 2004, John Kerry got 44 percent of the vote. Those hoping to replace Wenke are James Bolger (R-Marshall), Jerry Vander Roest (R-Galesburg), and 2006 nominee Phyllis A. Smith (D-Vicksburg). Smith managed 45 percent against Wenke and held him to his smallest margin of victory, impressive against an incumbent. Smith is also the recording secretary for the Kalamazoo County Democratic Party, which (hopefully) indicates some party support. Like other districts, I don't have a good read of how it might play out. However, we can once again hope for a tough GOP primary that will allow Smith to get her name out and contact voters. It's a winnable district and an open seat, and she should have some name recognition from the 2006 election. With any luck, this will be one more reason for Calhoun County Democrats to turn out in November. HD064 - Martin Griffin (D) Now we're into Jackson County, which has been the source of lots of excitement. Martin Griffin (D-Jackson) represents the western portion of the county and the city of Jackson, a district that had been solidly held by former Representative and 2004 congressional candidate Clark Bisbee (R-Jackson). In 2004, Rick Baxter (R-Concord Twp.) beat then-Jackson Mayor Martin Griffin 49.9 to 48.9. For those who have been paying attention, you may remember that Baxter was the state representative who said that the day they raised the minimum wage was "the worst day" of his term. Griffin came back in 2006 to win the district about 53 percent of the vote. Baxter went on to become Tim Walberg's district director and then to leave unexpectedly, which I've covered before. He's not trying to win back his old seat, though, instead aiming for Jackson County treasurer. Baxter also serves as chairman of the Jackson County Republican Party. So who is running against Griffin this time? Surely, after narrowly losing the seat, the GOP would recruit a top-tier challenger, right? Apparently not. Leland Prebble (R-Spring Arbor) is the only candidate to file against Griffin. He's a retiring construction contractor, who, as far as I can find, has no previous political experience. The Citizen Patriot ran an editorial today commenting on this: The fact that a political unknown is the only candidate Jackson County Republicans could find to run against state Rep. Martin Griffin speaks volumes about the state of local politics.Griffin is popular, well-known, and has a no-name opponent. Without knowing anything more, I'd put him about on the same level as Dudley Spade-- safe, soon-to-be reelected, and in a good position to help turn out voters who probably won't be voting for Tim Walberg. HD065 - Mike Simpson (D) This is another Jackson County district, covering essentially everything in the county that Griffin doesn't represent, plus tiny pieces of Lenawee and Eaton counties. This district has been changing representatives a lot lately-- Jerry Kratz (R) beats Sharon Renier (D-Munith) in 2002, then Mickey Mortimer (R) is elected in a 2003, and then Leslie Mortimer (R) is elected in 2004, beating 2002 7th Congressional District candidate Mike Simpson (D-Brooklyn) about 51 to 49. Simpson then returned in 2006 and won the district with about 53 percent. In 2008, Simpson will be challenged by Ray Snell (R), the Blackman Township supervisor. I don't know anything about him, but he could potentially be a strong candidate. Simpson isn't helped, either, by two primary challengers-- Russell Severance (D), a 77-year-old who recently lost a school board election and tried to recall Simpson (the language wasn't approved), and Steven Godbehere (D), a paramedic. I don't know the details of either candidacy, though apparently Severance really doesn't like Simpson. This is a district where the state House race might not offer any assistance to the Democratic nominee for the 7th District. The Republican could potentially be a strong opponent, and the eventual Democratic candidate might be weakened by the primary. But the district is Sharon Renier's home turf, and Mark Schauer has represented much of it in the state Senate. HD071 - Rick Jones (R) This is the last state House district which falls within the 7th Congressional District's boundaries. Since 2004, it has been represented by Rick Jones (R-Grand Ledge), elected in 2004 with 59 percent of the vote and reelected in 2006 with 58 percent. I don't know much about Jones (Eaton County is far away from me), nor do I know much about his challenger, Mark Eagle (D-Lansing). Lacking any further knowledge, I'd say that Eagle has the potential to turn this into a top-tier race, but right now I'd say Jones is probably safe. Regardless of whether that's good or bad, it doesn't do anything for my primary goal, which is turning out Democratic-leaning voters for the 7th District race. Even so, Sharon Renier won Eaton County 50 to 48, which should mean there's a lot of potential for further Democratic gains. ---- So where does all of that leave us? None of this, obviously, has been comprehensive. Instead, it's just been my first impressions as all the Michigan races begin to develop. Right now, I'd say that Democrats in the district are in a great position relative to their Republican counterparts. There are three Democratic incumbents (Byrnes, Spade, and Griffin) that I would say are very safe, and could help tremendously in building the Democratic brand and helping the Democratic nominee for the 7th District. There's one district (62) that will have a lot of activity and excitement anyway, which could help in a lean-Democratic year. Two districts (58 and 63) could potentially turn into hot races for their Democrats, depending on how they organize and how the GOP primaries play out. And two districts (65 and 71) I don't see having a major impact at all. With all of this, I could be wrong. That said, I feel that right now, Byrnes, Spade, and Griffin are some of the best resources Mark Schauer or Sharon Renier could have for reaching out to local voters in areas where they can (and should) perform well. If those three can take advantage of their non-competitive races and help the 7th District nominee, we could be well on track for defeating Tim Walberg. Hopefully, I'll have plenty of reason to write about all of these candidates and more as we get closer to November. I know that many of you aren't Democrats, and are here more out of a dislike of Walberg than a support for my party. Even so, I'd encourage you to learn more about some of the candidates I've talked about. We're Democrats, which means we're always eager to hear from you and convince you that we've got the right ideas. Replacing Congressman Walberg is the primary objective of this blog. However, as the congressional race is connected to the other races going on around it, I don't think there's anything wrong with a little party-building. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Democratic Party, Mark Schauer, Republican Party, Rick Baxter, Sharon Renier, Tim Walberg Monday, May 05, 2008 Online Fundraising
A while back, someone sent me an article from subscription-only MIRS that's an interesting read. It's got a couple of items worth noting, which will be the subjects of this post and the next one.
In the article, one reads this: Another interesting twist in the 7th is in bundling money. Last election, the free-market Club for Growth bundled more than $600,000 from donors largely outside Michigan for Walberg. This cycle, the Washington, D.C.-based Club political action committee (PAC) bundled a total of $21,785.At first read, the good-government-loving person will think, "Oh no! We don't want to replace the Club for Growth with a liberal counterpart! We want honesty and integrity!" But that's not quite the whole story. The Club for Growth, when it bundles money, sends out solicitations to a wide network of wealthy members on behalf of the candidates it supports. So the Club is actively fundraising for Walberg. There is, in fact, a progressive counterpart, called EMILY's List. But they only support pro-choice women, so they won't be getting involved on behalf of Mark Schauer. ActBlue works differently. It does bundle money, in that it accepts contributions from individuals and then sends them on to the candidate. However, it does not actively solicit contributions. Instead, it merely lists every single Democratic candidate running in the country. So, it's true that bloggers and liberal activists from across the country could, in fact, be supporting Mark Schauer and urging their readers to do the same. They use ActBlue as a tool for that, but ActBlue itself isn't doing anything except transfer money. So why is ActBlue a good thing for Mark Schauer? By setting up fundraising pages for every Democrat in the country, it makes online fundraising suddenly a lot simpler for Democrats. Tim Walberg's campaign website has a PayPal page as part of his website and he spent $9,000 last quarter on services from Topfundraising.com, according to the MIRS article. Schauer... put a link to ActBlue on his website. That's a lot of money and effort saved. This is what building a progressive infrastructure looks like, and this is the sort of thing that helps Democrats win in ridiculously Republican districts (PVI R+7). With all of this in mind, let's look at the number the MIRS article quoted: But it was Schauer who showed his bundling prowess, taking home $70,518 thanks to Cambridge, Mass.-based ActBlue, an online liberal fundraiser.If that's true, then about 22 percent of the money Schauer raised last quarter came in over the internet. When looking at just individual contributions, that's about 29 percent. Is raising money on the internet inherently good for a candidate? Well, no. Money is money, and a candidate will take it via any means available. But it's also at least 29 percent of Schauer's contributions that aren't coming in the smoke-filled rooms or behind-the-scenes deals. Strong internet fundraising means that a candidate has strong support from more than big-money interests. The more raised over the internet, the more evidence there is that a candidate is "people-powered." I just thought it was an interesting item. Labels: 2008 Election, ActBlue, Club for Growth, Fundraising, Mark Schauer Mark Schauer's First Quarter Fundraising
This was a long time ago, but in the interests of completeness... (I posted Renier's on April 14... but it's been a busy month since then.)
From Michigan Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer's report to the Federal Election Commission:
We all pretty much knew this, but it's worth pointing out the highlights. Schauer raised $323,549.59 in the first quarter of 2008, at about $885,000 for the whole cycle.. That's a little less than the initial report suggested, but nonetheless impressive. Of his contributions last quarter, about 75 percent came from individuals, which is good. As far as spending goes, Schauer hasn't spent all that much, and had $751,359.11 cash-on-hand at the beginning of April. That's a lot of money for a challenger in an R+2 district. Some significant* contributors: Lynn Rivers (former member of Congress), Doug Spade (former state representative, Lenawee County), Leonard Smigielski (Jackson County Democratic chair), Kildee for Congress, Rangel for Congress, Levin for Congress, Pam Byrnes for State Representative, AFL-CIO, AFSCME, SEUI, and a bunch of other unions, plus a bunch of names of bloggers that I've come to recognize from Michigan and national blogs. The point of that? It's pretty clear that Schauer has managed to secure the establishment support and a lot of activist support. As long as he can keep all of them liking him-- unions, bloggers, local party leaders-- he'll have quite an army of supporters when it finally comes time to get out the vote. Overall, a good quarter for Schauer. Next post, we'll see how Congressman Walberg fared. * Note that significant is in terms of importance as I perceive it, not amount contributed. Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Doug Spade, Fundraising, Labor, Mark Schauer Monday, April 14, 2008 Schauer Raises $326,000 in 1Q
Unlike Sharon Renier, Mark Schauer's campaign finance information for the first quarter of 2008 isn't online yet. When available, I'll post it later this week.
However, the campaign did send out a press release: SCHAUER CONTINUES TO RECEIVE STRONG FINANCIAL SUPPORT FROM MICHIGAN VOTERS READY FOR CHANGE(Emphasis added.) Every quarter, Schauer continues to impress me, and the fact that he's almost raised a million dollars this early is incredible. The fact that he's sitting on $750,000 right now is even more meaningful. He's spent less than a quarter of what he's raised, and he has more than enough resources to compete with Walberg this summer. In 2006, we saw that more money doesn't always mean more votes. But when you're raising $326,000 in a quarter from over 1,000 donors, the vast majority of whom live in Michigan, it doesn't hurt. Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer Thursday, April 10, 2008 SEIU Endorses Schauer
Last month, both Mark Schauer and Sharon Renier competed for the endorsement of the SEIU Michigan State Council. SEIU, the Service Employees International Union, represents nearly 80,000 workers in Michigan in health care, state and local government, and building services. These aren't the flashy people who get all the headlines. These are the people who actually work for a living, making the essential services we rely on actually work.
Both Schauer and Renier participated in the "Walk A Day In My Shoes" program, in which each of them spent a work day alongside actual SEIU members, doing their jobs alongside them. In their press releases for each candidate's working experience, SEIU writes: "Our decision to endorse a Congressional candidate will come directly from our members in the workplace," said Phil Thompson, SEIU Michigan State Council president and executive vice president of SEIU Local 517M. "SEIU members want to know that people running for office understand what it's like to do their jobs and walk a day in their shoes."Schauer spent his day in Adrian alongside Annette Freeman, a Certified Nursing Assistant at the Lenawee Medical Care Facility. Renier spent her day working with Denise Mazuk, a home care worker who cares for the elderly in the Battle Creek area. Ultimately, the SEIU Michigan State Council chose to endorse Schauer. In their announcement, they explain:
Congratulations to Senator Schauer for the endorsement, and thank you to both Mark Schauer and Sharon Renier for taking the time to seek this endorsement. Thank you for choosing to spend time with the people whose lives you will affect should either of you be elected to Congress. Which brings me to something from their announcement, which I find very telling: To obtain the SEIU endorsement, Schauer and his opponent in the Democratic primary went through a multistep, member-driven process that included filling out a questionnaire on issues important to members and their families, participating in a candidate “meet and greet” with members and taking part in a “Walk A Day In My Shoes” event, where candidates spent a day working side-by-side with SEIU members. U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Tipton), the incumbent Congressman in the 7th District, did not respond to the SEIU’s invitation to participate in the endorsement process.(Emphasis added.) I know that SEIU is a union, and Congressman Walberg is a Republican, so the odds were slim to start with. But wouldn't it have been nice to see our representative choose to work alongside the men and women he represents, and try to convince their union that he really can bring about positive change? Even if it was a lost cause, that kind of effort would have meant a lot to me and to a lot of other people. I suppose Walberg enjoys the company of his friends in the Club for Growth more. Labels: 2008 Election, Health Care, Labor, Mark Schauer, SEIU, Sharon Renier, Tim Walberg A ROMP With Tim Walberg
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has a program called "Red to Blue," in which they pick districts with strong Democratic candidates or weak Republicans (or both) and provide additional attention. This is purely offense, seeking to, well, turn "red" districts "blue" and elect more Democrats. (The incumbent protection program is called "Frontline.") State | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||